Cubs vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: Lineups Get Caught Looking Ahead to All-Star Break

The Chicago Cubs and New York Yankees will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday afternoon in the Bronx. 

The pair split the first two games of this series, with the Yankees getting the better of the Cubs yesterday. For various reasons, New York has been difficult to pen down this season. Chief among them is once they start playing better for a stretch, the offense disappears. Yesterday was an exception to that rule, as New York struck early and often.

The loss for Chicago was a continuation of .500 play over its last four games. They'll enter today in third place in a highly competitive NL Central race.

Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Cubs vs. Yankees on Sunday, July 9.

Cubs vs Yankees odds

Cubs vs Yankees predictions

As someone who supports and follows the Yankees on a day-to-day basis, it's been difficult for me to get a grasp on this team.

We've seen just how many flaws Aaron Judge covered up. We've seen some good moments too, but it's mostly been sluggish offensive showings as they try to piece together runs. And that plays into my best bet today.

In the absence of its star, it's been rare that this New York team has put together back-to-back solid offensive performances. With Kyle Hendricks taking the mound for the Cubs, I don't expect that to start today, either. I'm grabbing the Under as my best bet. 

Let's start with the Domingo German side of things first. Two starts ago, the Yankees hurler had a magical night when he threw a perfect game against the Oakland Athletics. He followed that up with a start more typical of him when he allowed three runs in just over four innings to the Baltimore Orioles.

German's success is predicated on getting chased outside the zone and creating some misses. I'm expecting him to be able to do both of those things this afternoon, which is why I'm backing him to have success. 

The Cubs make the sixth-least contact on pitches thrown in the zone. Because of that, they've made some midseason changes. While they've not ranked high overall this season in chase rate, over the last month, they have the fourth-highest clip in baseball in that metric. That could have led to their strikeout per game number ticking up and reaching the sixth-highest number in baseball.

Either way, this should enable Germany to eat up some innings. It's not a coincidence that his perfect game against the Oakland Athletics came against a team that ranks high in strikeout rate and chase rate. 

On the other side, predicting what this Yankees offense will do on a game-to-game basis is like playing roulette. That said, I like the matchup for Hendricks. 

Regression is coming for the veteran, but right now, he's quietly enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. The teams that start delivering those doses of regression for Hendricks will be ones filled with good hitting from top to bottom.

His struggles are primarily missing too many bats and having an expected batting average that is way out of line from his actual numbers. The Yankees aren't that type of team.

They rank dead last in BABIP and remain predicated on the long ball or random clutch power hit to win them games. That'll be hard to come by against a pitcher like Hendricks, who is in the Top 30% of any metric related to hard hitting. 

Grab the Under this afternoon. Each pitcher has a favorable matchup, and there's a nice edge against my projection of 7.5.

My best bet: Under 9 (-120 at PointsBet)

Cubs vs Yankees same-game parlay

Under 9

Neither team scores five runs

German Over 5.5 Ks

+320 at PointsBet

Sunday? Early start? Last day before the break? Something about that screams low scoring as players look ahead to the break. It's a critical aspect of this same-game parlay. 

Look, it's a long season. And knowing what I know about the individuals of these teams, this isn't a game that I anticipate them being "all-out" for. Sure, it's situational, and handicapping the motivation of any team can be tricky, but it all adds up.

You know how I feel about the pitching matchups, but when that's added to the situational aspects, my confidence in a few runs being scored increases. I paired the Under with "neither team to score five runs" to make up a good portion of this parlay. Sure, it's not incredibly attractive, but it checks another box for what I feel the most strongly about in this matchup. It also doesn't hurt that winds will shift to blowing in around the first pitch at Yankee Stadium.

I finished things off with German strikeouts Over. I talked about this briefly above, but the Cubs are chasing pitches much more frequently as of late. That's good news for the Yankees hurling. While German can be erratic, he's been good at racking up strikeouts against these teams. He's gone over this number in seven starts, and all but one came against teams ranking in the league's top half in chase rate. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cubs vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

These two teams are comparable, but I trust this Cubs' offense more. It's averaged 3.6 runs per game over its last three, while New York has averaged just 2.3. 

I also trust the Cubs' starting pitching more. The upside could be with German, I mean, he did throw a perfect game two starts ago, but the consistency is definitely with the side of Hendricks. Hendricks has yet to surrender over three runs in a start this season, while that's a usual outing for German. 

The matchup tilts in Chicago's favor too. It is more likely that Chicago can break through against pitching with hard-hit problems than the Yankees against one with an expected batting average problem.

Want a stat that perfectly encapsulates that? The Cubs ranked 18th in barrel rate, and the Yankees rank dead last in BABIP. Sure, it's not overwhelming, and that's why I likely won't have a bet on a side. But if you're looking for a lean, it has to be with Chicago. 

You know how I feel about the total today. I've talked about the pitching matchup at length and the situational aspects that are in our favor. Let's finish up here by noting a few of the trends: The Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, 7-2 in the previous nine meetings between these two teams in New York, and 5-0 in the last five Sunday games for the Yankees.

Most everything points to a low-scoring affair today this afternoon in the Bronx. We're confidently grabbing it, and we'll consider even double-dipping on a live number if some early runs are plated. 

Trend to know

The Under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between these two teams in New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Yankees

Cubs vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Kyle Hendricks (3-3, 2.64 ERA): The rumors of Kyle Hendricks's demise were exaggerated. After posting a career-high ERA a season ago, you wondered if the 33-year-old should consider calling it quits. How has he responded to that? By posting the second-best ERA of his career (if the season ended today), along with some very impressive underlying metrics. There's a caveat: it comes with an expected ERA of nearly 4.00. But the body of work for now remains impressive. He enters today off a one-run, six-inning showing against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Domingo German (5-5, 4.52 ERA): We've seen a bit of everything from German this season. From throwing a perfect game two starts ago to surrendering six runs on three home runs to end April, we have indeed seen it all. He's at his best when getting chased on his pitches. He ranks in the Top 10% of baseball in that category and compliments that with a whiff rate inside the Top 20%. However, he struggles when he doesn't get that chase, evidenced by a hard-hit rate that's well below league average. German will enter this one off a start against the Baltimore Orioles where he allowed three earned runs in just over four innings of work. 

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