The Boston Red Sox look to end a three-game home skid when they host the Milwaukee Brewers on Saturday.
The Red Sox have won in Nick Pivetta’s last two starts, and look to him to continue his solid start. The Brewers have lost the last two times Colin Rea has toed the rubber, and the odds indicate that trend may continue.
Find out why our MLB picks are banking on just that in our Brewers vs. Red Sox predictions for Saturday, May 25.
Brewers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Colin Rea Under 16.5 outs (-109 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
After the Brewers held the Red Sox to just two runs on Friday night, I expect things to be flipped on their head with Colin Rea taking the bump. I’ll be shocked to see him get through the sixth inning, and quite frankly, he might get lucky to even reach that frame.
It’s not just that his numbers on the season haven’t been that good. But when you look at his splits, you see two very alarming trends if you’re a Brewers fan.
First, his performances are getting worse as the season goes along. After allowing just 10 earned runs over his first six starts, the righty has been hit for 3+ in three consecutive starts. Two of those starts came on the road, and he failed to exit the fifth inning in either outing.
That brings us to our second trend. Rea’s ERA at home is 3.38, and teams are hitting just .223 against him. But his away travels have seen those numbers balloon, with a .291 BAA and a 4.74 ERA. He’s struggled with command, and he issued four walks in 4 ⅓ IP in his last outing in Houston.
Rea ranks in the Bottom 25% of the league in nearly every pitching metric, and his strikeout rate, whiff rate, and chase rate are all in the bottom 15th percentile. His xERA of 5.59 shows he’s actually gotten somewhat fortunate this season, as does his .305 xBA.
That luck will run out on Saturday. Fenway Park is a dangerous place to give up solid contact, with BATX ranking it the second-best stadium for batting average. And given the .282 average he’s allowing to LHB, hitters like Rafael Devers and Jarren Duran likely can’t wait for the game to start.
Take Rea to record fewer than 17 outs, and be sure to shop around for this prop. BetRivers has it priced at -109, strong value given the same play is -130 at a few other books.
Brewers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Colin Rea Under 16.5 outs
Rafael Devers 2+ total bases
Jake Bauers 2+ strikeouts
Nick Pivetta ranks in the Top 12% of MLB pitchers in strikeout rate, and his sweeper is getting plenty of swings and misses. Opponents have whiffed on 42% of their swings vs. the sweeper, which is bad news for Jake Bauers.
The Brewer hitter has struck out twice in each of his last two games, ranks in the Bottom 10% of the league in whiff rate, and strikes out in 35% of his appearances. He’s got a whiff rate of almost 40% on breaking balls, and I like him to get rung up twice again vs. a strong strikeout pitcher.
On the other side, Devers is hitting .298 vs RHP with a SLG% nearly 400 points higher than vs. LHP. He recently had a stretch of six straight games with a HR, and this is a matchup that gives him a strong chance to go yard again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Brewers vs Red Sox odds
Brewers vs Red Sox live odds
Brewers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Milwaukee +1.5 (-153) | Boston -1.5 (+138)
- Moneyline: Milwaukee +134 | Boston -146
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+105) | Under 9.5 (-118)
Brewers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston is favored on the moneyline at -142, but Milwaukee +1.5 is the run-line favorite at -155.
- The Brewers are 3-4 on their seven-game road trip, while the Red Sox have lost three in a row at home. But the pitching matchup gives Boston a big edge here.
- The total of 9.5 runs sees the Under favored at -122. In fact, the number has shifted to a flat 9 runs in a few places.
- The Under is 3-1 in the L4 for both teams, and is 25-13 in Boston’s last 38 games.
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Brewers vs Red Sox trend
The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Red Sox
Brewers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 5-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSWI, NESN |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Colin Rea (3-2, 4.07 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Nick Pivetta (2-2, 3.04 ERA) |
Brewers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Brewers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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