The Philadelphia Phillies (60%) will send Zack Wheeler to the mound as they look to snap out of a two-game losing skid.
He should give them the pitching advantage opposite of Martin Perez, whose 3.05 ERA does not at all align with a 28th percentile ranking in xERA.
That's one of the reasons I'm backing the home team with my Braves vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.
Who will win Braves vs Phillies today: Phillies moneyline (61%)
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Zack Wheeler is in a sneaky-good spot to get back on track against the Atlanta Braves. They have quietly struggled against righties over the last month, sitting 25th in wOBA and 26th in xwOBA.
I have higher expectations for the Philadelphia Phillies offense against Martin Perez. He continues to be a prime regression candidate, posting a 2.28 ERA the past 30 days despite a ballooning 4.99 xERA.
The Phillies have hit lefties well, and are 14-4 as favorites against a southpaw starter with an ERA above 3.00.
Play to 63%.
COVERS INTEL: The Braves are 25th in batting average on the road against righties the past month. It'll be difficult to get going against Wheeler, who's held opponents to a .198 average at home.
Braves vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (54%)
Wheeler has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of 14 starts against teams outside the Top-10 in OBP against righties.
The Braves sit 14th on the season and 21st across the past 20 games, making this a spot where we should expect a quality start.
For his faults, Perez deserves credit for high-end barrel suppression. He’s in the 86th percentile on the year, and that will help him limit homers and quick-strike offense.
Both teams also have rested bullpens after their starters pitched six innings Friday on the back of off days on Thursday.
I’m buying to 56%.
Braves vs Phillies home run prediction: Trea Turner (17%)
Trea Turner has a nice history against Perez, hitting .294 with an ISO just under .300.
He is also in excellent form facing Perez’ pitch mix. Turner’s average exit velocity is up nearly four miles per hour over the last 25 plate appearances, and his hard hit rate has soared to nearly 70% along the way.
He has fared especially well against changeups and sinkers, which are Perez’ two most-used pitches.
- ML/RL bets: 99-90, -11.48 units
- Over/Under bets: 95-88-6, -5.27 units
Braves vs Phillies weather
Temperatures in the low 80s are expected with winds blowing left-to-right. No real impact on scoring.
Braves vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Braves 41% | Phillies 60%
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (60%) | Phillies -1.5 (41%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Braves vs Phillies trend
The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 15 of their last 18 games (+11.45 units, 41% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Phillies.
How to watch Braves vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, NBCSP |
| Braves starting pitcher | Martin Perez (8-8, 3.05 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Zack Wheeler (11-5, 3.31 ERA) |
Braves vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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