I'm looking to get in and get out of a few games this evening by attacking the YRFI/NRFI market for my MLB picks.
Both Sox games immediately caught my attention this afternoon, and so did the matchup out in Las Vegas. A few strong spots stand out on the board tonight, so let's dive into my best NRFI/YRFI predictions for June 9.
Best NRFI/YRFI predictions today
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 / - Braves vs. White Sox YRFI |
-119 |
 / - Red Sox vs. Rays NRFI |
-117 |
 / - Brewers vs. Athletics NRFI |
+150 |
Braves at White Sox: YRFI (-113)
Kicking off the day by rooting for early runs in the first game between the Atlanta Braves and the Chicago White Sox.
Eric Fedde takes the mound for the White Sox this evening, sporting a 9.00 first-inning ERA after allowing eight runs across eight starts.
Opposing hitters own a .294 batting average, .824 slugging percentage, and 1.118 OPS against him in the opening frame. Over his last five starts, the White Sox right-hander has posted a 68.4% elevation rate and a 2.21 HR/9.
Grant Holmes gets the ball for Atlanta, and he has struggled in the first inning as well, allowing eight runs on 10 hits through 12 starts. Over his last five outings, Holmes has surrendered plenty of hard contact, giving up a 51.4% hard-hit rate and a 12.9% barrel rate. He also owns a 2.10 HR/9 and a 62.9% elevation rate during that span.
Using the current season timeframe on Batters-Box, these lineups feature six elite-rated bats and three additional hitters with strong ratings. That gives us nine total bats in favorable spots to do damage at the plate this evening.
Both teams also rank inside the top 10 in YRFI percentage. The Braves own the second-highest road YRFI rate at 39.39%, while the White Sox rank 10th overall at 32%.
With this being the best number available, I'd be comfortable playing it up to -125 if needed.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn
Red Sox at Rays: NRFI (-135)
I am all over both Sox games today, but for this pick, I want NO RUNS.
Game 2 between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays features left-hander Payton Tolle and right-hander Nick Martinez, two arms that should be able to hold things down early — just as they have all season.
The Red Sox southpaw enters today having allowed just two runs through eight games, both coming on solo home runs. Aside from that, he has surrendered only one other hit during that span. Over his last five outings, he has done an excellent job limiting hard contact while posting a 0.61 HR/9.
On the other side, Martinez has put up similar numbers over his last five appearances, allowing just 36.5% hard contact with a 6.7% barrel rate, while carrying an elite 2.4% walk rate.
Through 12 games this season, the first inning has been where the Rays right-hander has shone most, sporting a 0.75 ERA and allowing just one run.
Offensively, we only have to worry about two hitters with strong matchup ratings: Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero. Both profile well against left-handed pitching, but I'm willing to take that risk given the edge the starting pitchers hold in this matchup.
Polymarket is currently offering the best price on this prop, so I would aim to find a number as close to that as possible.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RAYS, NESN
Brewers at Athletics: NRFI (+150)
Someone is going to see this and want to chirp me, so I'll make it real easy for you: it's @ColbyMBets.
Now, back to why you're here, the logic.
First of all, yes, I am aware of the elevation in this matchup. I saw the fireworks last night. However, at this price, I think we're getting some real value on the Milwaukee Brewers and Athletics to stay scoreless through one inning.
On the bump for Milwaukee is left-hander Robert Gasser (great pitcher name), who, despite a lower ground-ball rate, isn't allowing much hard contact. Through his first couple of starts this season, opposing hitters own just a .192 xBA and .335 xSLG against him.
On the other side, Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn has been dealing over his last five outings, posting a 1.59 ERA while carrying a 42.6% ground-ball rate.
Opposing hitters are producing just a 38.2% hard-hit rate and a 5.9% barrel rate, while owning a .197 xBA. Through 11 appearances this season, Ginn has posted a 1.64 ERA in the first inning, allowing only two runs on nine hits.
People are going to harp on the elevation because it's second only to Coors Field, as if Coors has never had a scoreless first inning. If I'm wrong, it won't be the first time, and it certainly won't be the last.
At +150, the price is simply too sexy to pass up.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, BREW
- 2026 MLB Record picks: 197-345-29, +1.30 units
What is a NRFI prediction?
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) picks add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI pick is a prediction that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're predicting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI pick is the exact opposite. You're predicting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI picks add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for those looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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