Sports betting is all about "what have you done for me lately?" and for Sonny Gray and Sandy Alcantara, that answer isn't good.
Both starters were All-Stars in 2023 but have struggled mightily of late, which is why my MLB picks are backing the “Yes Run First Inning” prop at plus money in their matchup tonight.
Check out the rest of my best free YRFI and NRFI bets for Tuesday, July 29.
Best NRFI/YRFI bets today
Marlins vs
Cardinals: YRFI
Mets vs
Padres: NRFI
Mariners vs
Athletics: YRFI
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NRFI/YRFI bets for July 29
Marlins at Cardinals: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)
St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Sonny Gray sports a disappointing 4.33 ERA in 21 starts. He's been especially bad lately, posting an 8.34 ERA in five starts this month. Meanwhile, the Miami Marlins are sending Sandy Alcantara and his 6.66 ERA to the hill.
If you think the 2023 NL Cy Young winner is going to turn things around, the analytics don't agree with you. He's in the bottom 15th percentile in expected batting average and expected ERA (4.99), and is giving up hard contact while seldom making batters miss.
Gray has a 5.57 ERA in the first inning, while Alcantara has a 5.85 ERA and is allowing opponents to slug .538 in the opening frame.
While these teams have middle-of-the-pack offenses, the Cards hit better at home (OPS of .737) while the Marlins perform better on the road (slugging .411).
- Time: 7:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network Midwest | FanDuel Sports Network Florida
- Bet: YRFI
Mets at Padres: NRFI (Play at Thrillzz)
New York Mets southpaw Sean Manaea was the team's top pitcher last year, but he missed the first few months of this season due to injuries. Since rejoining the rotation, he's been lights out, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP through three starts.
While that's a small sample size, his xERA of 2.79 and xBA of .195 are a good indication that his success is sustainable. The San Diego Padres have struggled against lefties, and playing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park with the wind blowing towards the infield will help Manaea even more.
Those conditions will also benefit Padres rookie Ryan Bergert, who owns a 2.84 ERA through 31 2/3 innings. In six career starts, Bergert has yet to allow a run in the first inning, and opponents are batting just .053 against him in that frame.
The Mets have been productive at the plate but are getting off to slow starts away from home. They rank 26th in the majors in first-inning run rate on the road (22.2%).
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB Network
- Bet: NRFI
Mariners at Athletics: YRFI (Play at Thrillzz)
The YRFI prop is juiced to around -140 at most books, but it's still worth betting considering how well the Seattle Mariners have been hitting away from home. The M's sit second in the majors in OPS (.780) and first-inning run rate (38.2%) on the road.
Meanwhile, the Athletics are sixth in first-inning run rate at home (34.6%) while ranking ninth in OPS (.756). The A's are giving the pill to righty Luis Severino, who has a 4.95 ERA through 22 starts.
Seattle responds with rookie Logan Evans. Although Evans has a 3.64 ERA through 11 starts, that number bumps up to 4.55 on the road. He also sits in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA (5.51) and xBA (.298), which suggests significant regression on the horizon.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA | ROOTNW
- Bet: YRFI
❓What are NRFI and YRFI bets❓
NRFI (No Run First Inning) and YRFI (Yes Run First Inning) bets add a thrilling twist to the start of an MLB game. A NRFI bet is a wager that no runs will be scored in the first inning. You're betting that the starting pitchers for both teams will get through the first inning without allowing any runs, whether by striking out batters, inducing ground balls, or through solid defensive play.
A YRFI bet is the exact opposite. You're betting that at least one run will be scored in the first inning. In this case, you’re hoping for an early offensive burst such as a leadoff walk, a timely hit, or even a home run.
NRFI and YRFI bets add excitement to the early part of a game and offer immediate gratification for bettors looking for a quick resolution.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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