Astros vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Houston Picks Up Road Underdog Win

One team in this matchup is a division leader, the other is behind the Orioles in the standings. What's more of a shock is that the division leader is actually the underdog in this one! Read our MLB betting picks for Astros vs. Red Sox to find out more.

Last Updated: May 16, 2022 3:10 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Houston Astros saw their 11-game winning streak come to an end over the weekend but bounced back to take their weekend series against the Washington Nationals.

Houston will try to start a new streak when it opens a series with the surprisingly bad Boston Red Sox. Boston heads into this matchup with a 13-21 record, trailing even the Baltimore Orioles in the American League East standings.

Despite this, the BoSox are favored in this AL showdown. Are the Stros an obvious play as underdogs tonight? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Astros vs. Red Sox on Monday, May 16.

Astros vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened this AL matchup as roughly -120 home favorites and despite their struggles have seen the early money, moving the line to -130. The total hit the board at 8.5 and has since been bumped up to 9 with that number juiced to the Over at most shops as of Monday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Astros vs Red Sox predictions

Picks made on 5/16/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Astros vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Monday, May 16, 2022
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Astros vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.38 ERA): After a bit of a rough start to the season, Odorizzi has looked close to unhittable over his last three starts. The right hander has allowed just one run on six hits over his last 17 2-3 innings of work.

Garrett Whitlock (1-1, 2.19 ERA): Whitlock began the year as the Red Sox’s long reliever, but injuries and a strong start thrust him into the rotation, where he has been a bit wild at times but is striking out batters with the best of them at the moment. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Astros: Jose Pena SS (Questionable).
Red Sox: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games when facing a right-handed starter while the Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five when listed as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Red Sox

Astros vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

It has been a disappointing start to the season, to say the least, for the Boston Red Sox. I mean, anytime you are listed behind the Baltimore Orioles in the standings after the second week of April it's troubling. And after losing nine of their last 13 games, that’s exactly where the BoSox are heading into this matchup with the Astros.

The biggest problem for the Sox this season has been their performance at the plate. What was expected to be a potent lineup, ranks 24th in OPS and 23rd in runs scored heading into this series. And things won’t get much easier tonight.  

The Astros hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi for the opener and as noted, he is in a groove. The righty has an expected ERA of 3.79 and has only allowed one run over his last three starts, giving up just six hits over that span. Odorizzi doesn’t strike out a ton of batters at this point in his career, but is creating a lot of soft contact thanks to locating his fastball well and mixing his pitches.

Now, you might say that came against the Rangers, Mariners, and Tigers, but unfortunately for BoSox fans their lineup is comparable at the moment and ranks 22nd in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.

That said, they are hoping that Garrett Whitlock will be able to keep them in this game. He has been one of the lone bright spots for Boston since joining the rotation and will look to keep it up.

The 25-year-old Whitlock has been mostly outstanding this season, pitching to an xERA of 2.37 while limiting opponents to an xBA of .190. He is also punching out opposing batters like it’s going out of style. He has an electric fastball with a devastating slider and has struck out 23 hitters in 15 innings as a starter.

However, the Astros can be a patient team, ranking 10th in strikeouts per game and fourth in walks per game. They also rank fifth in OPS when it comes to facing righties this season.

Whitlock can also rack up his pitch count quickly and has only pitched more than four innings once as a starter. That means several innings for a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA, compared to a Houston bullpen that ranks second in the same category.

All things considered, it’s the Astros, not Boston who should be favored in this game.

Prediction: Astros moneyline (+110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

When it comes to the total, the early steam is on the Over, but it seems like the number has moved high enough to consider the other side.

We’ve talked at length about the Red Sox’s struggles to score this season and their 3.71 runs per game rank 23rd in MLB. Despite plating some runs in their last series against Texas, they are still averaging just 3.92 runs per game over the last 13 games. One of the reasons for that is that the BoSox struggles to cash in with runners on, ranking 25th in OPS with runners in scoring position.

And while Houston has been on a roll, it ranks a middle-of-the-pack 13th when it comes to batting average when facing right-handed pitching, and there is no denying how effective Whitlock has been as a starter. 

We’re on a slight lean to the Under here.

Prediction: Under 9 (+100 at bet365)

Best bet

I feel very strongly that the Astros should be favored in this matchup. Yes, Whitlock has been very solid, but it will be interesting to see how he responds against a patient and veteran lineup like the Houston. One that is 12-1 in its last 13 games and plating 5.31 runs per game over that span. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are in a nose dive having lost nine of 13.

Houston arguably has the better starter, isn’t slumping at the dish, and has the better bullpen. The Stros on an alternate run line of -1.5 at +174 looks like tremendous value.

Pick: Astros alternate run line -1.5 (+174 at FanDuel)

MLB parlays

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