The Baltimore Orioles will look to expand on their two-game lead in the AL East as they host the Houston Astros tonight.
The Astros (65-49) took Game 1 of this series after a ninth-inning Kyle Tucker grand slam led Houston to a 7-6 victory. The Orioles (70-43) still have the best record in the American League but are in a tight battle with the Tampa Bay Rays at the top of the AL East.
Jack Flaherty excelled in his first start with Baltimore after he was traded from the St. Louis Cardinals at the deadline. We’ll break down whether he can continue this success in our free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Orioles on August 9.
Astros vs Orioles odds
Astros vs Orioles predictions
Jack Flaherty struggled through his seventh season with the Cardinals, part of an overall disappointing year for St. Louis. In his first 20 starts, Flaherty put up a 4.43 ERA, due in large part to control issues. While he wasn’t walking quite as many batters as last year, Flaherty was still giving out 4.4 free passes per nine innings, far too many to be consistently successful.
Still, his past success was enough for the Baltimore Orioles to take a chance on the 27-year-old, who, at worst, would deepen the Baltimore rotation with another reliable arm. For a young team, adding a veteran starter might also give the Orioles another reasonable option in the postseason.
Flaherty showed what he is capable of in his first start with Baltimore. On August 3, he pitched a sterling six innings against the Toronto Blue Jays, giving up just one run on four hits while striking out eight. It was hit best performance in a month, and while it’s too early to tell for sure, there’s a chance that a change in scenery might be just what Flaherty needs to get back on track.
He'll face another capable lineup on Wednesday when he makes his first home start in Baltimore. The Houston Astros are averaging 4.78 runs per game, thanks in large part to a deep lineup with few obvious holes and the powerhouse combination of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker anchoring the offense.
Those two men could find success against Flaherty, but that should be where the party ends. Overall, Houston has struggled against right-handed pitching this year, putting up just a .718 OPS and a .243 batting average against righties.
It’s hard to find a great prop bet for Flaherty, who isn’t a dominant strikeout pitcher, but he is set up to provide the home crowd with another excellent start against a Houston lineup that matches up poorly against him overall. That’s enough to give the Orioles a clear edge in Baltimore tonight. I’m riding that edge on the moneyline as the Orioles should come away with an important home win.
My best bet: Orioles moneyline (-136 at Unibet)
Astros vs Orioles same-game parlay
Orioles moneyline (-138)
Under 9.5 (-104)
Jack Flaherty 5+ strikeouts (-245)
We’ll start our same-game parlay by backing the Orioles to win. The big reason for my confidence in Baltimore is Flaherty, so the rest of our SGP will be based on the team’s newest starter.
I expect an effective start from Flaherty, and while I have less confidence in Houston hurler Cristian Javier, he rarely gets blown out of games early. That means both offenses should be scraping for runs, making the Under look very appealing at 9.5.
Finally, I’m going to take Flaherty to strike out at least five batters tonight. While I just said that he’s not a dominant strikeout pitcher, Flaherty does get his fair share of punch outs, finishing 8.9 batters per nine innings in 2023. The Astros do tend to strike out more often against right-handed pitchers, and five is a very reasonable target for Flaherty to close out our parlay.
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Astros vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Orioles opened tonight’s game as the slightest of favorites, with some books having the game at an even -110 on both sides of the line. However, the money has flowed in Baltimore’s direction, and the consensus moneyline is now around Orioles -145, with -136 the best number I could find on Baltimore at noon on Wednesday. Meanwhile, you can get +130 on the Astros at some books.
The Astros have lived up to expectations this year, but haven’t done much more, winning about three units on the moneyline. The Orioles have been the most pleasant surprise in MLB, and are up an incredible 30 units for bettors this season as a result.
I’ve made the Orioles moneyline bet my best play of the game for a number of reasons. Flaherty is set up well for success and Baltimore has played very well at home. But overall, the Orioles are also just a slightly better team than the Astros, as their young talent continues to bloom this summer. I’m taking Baltimore.
Tonight’s total opened at nine runs. That number has come up slightly, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 9.5. Even at that number, there’s a decided lean towards the Over, as it’s rare to find -110 odds on that side of the line. You can get +100 on the Under if you shop around.
The Orioles have definitely played above the number this year thanks to their emerging lineup, with the Over going 59-48 in Baltimore games this year. Houston has been right around the number all season long, with the Under and Over each hitting 56 times.
Despite the movement upward, I like the Under tonight. Neither Flaherty nor Javier tends to give up runs in bunches, so while these lineups are capable, it’s unlikely both will put up big numbers at the same time tonight. With the more generous odds on a low-scoring game, I’m leaning toward the Under.
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Trend to know
The Orioles are 6-2 in their last eight games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Orioles
Astros vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, August 9, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Southwest, MASN |
Starting pitchers
Cristian Javier (7-2, 4.39 ERA): After a stellar 2022, Javier has failed to live up to expectations. He is striking out just 8.5 batters per nine innings, down from 11.7 last season. That’s resulted in a WHIP that has risen to 1.21 and a FIP that’s up to 4.50, as the lack of finishing has resulted in more hits and more home runs for opposing hitters. In his last start, Javier allowed three runs on four hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees on August 3.
Jack Flaherty (8-6, 4.28 ERA): Once a Cy Young candidate, Flaherty appeared to be watching his career stall out over the past two seasons in St. Louis. With the Cardinals in the midst of a lost season, they traded Flaherty to the Orioles, who were looking for veteran stability in their rotation as they head towards a likely playoff run. Flaherty showed he could provide strong innings in his first start for Baltimore, giving up just one run on four hits over six innings against the Blue Jays last Thursday.
