2023 MLB Awards: Who Will Win vs Who Should Win

Some would say, despite the fact Aaron Judge broke the American League record for most home runs in a single season with 62 (along with leading the league in a handful of other batting categories), that the New York Yankees slugger still didn’t deserve to win the AL MVP Award last year, because Los Angeles Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani impacted the game more.

I mean, he is an elite pitcher and hitter. Who deserved that award was one of the most heated and fun debates in baseball betting circles last season. Particularly, if you had an Ohtani MVP ticket in your pocket. 

So, the question is, will something similar happen this season? I take a look at the MLB odds and tell you who should — and who will — win all of baseball’s major awards in 2023.

AL MVP

Who will win — Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels

Umm. Have you seen the odds? Shohei Ohtani is currently a -800 favorite in the AL MVP odds this season. Some books have even posted Shohei vs. The Field betting options at this point.

And let’s put this on the table. Ohtani is the G.O.A.T. No one, and I mean no one — including Babe Ruth — has done what Ohtani does in a single season. Ruth wasn’t an elite pitcher and hitter at the same time. Oh, and he didn’t have a fastball that averaged nearly 98 miles per hour.

It doesn’t hurt that Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels are finally in a position to make a push at the Wild Card. Barring some catastrophic injury in the next week or so, Ohtani will be the American League MVP.

Who should win — Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH, Los Angeles Angels

It took an all-time, recording-breaking season from Aaron Judge to prevent Shohei Ohtani from winning his second MVP Award last season. Think about that. In almost any other season, Ohtani wins that award walking away with the numbers he put up.

This makes the fact he is one-upping himself this season even crazier. As a hitter, Shohei leads the MLB with 32 home runs, as well as in slugging, OPS, and total bases. As a pitcher, he leads the MLB in hits allowed per nine innings while striking out 11.8 batters per nine. It’s silly.

Players just don’t do this. Luckily, the only player with a shot to break a home run record and steal an MVP away this year is Shohei himself.

NL MVP

Who will win — Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

It’s so great to see this version of Ronald Acuna Jr. again, and he is currently the -300 favorite to win the award. The Atlanta Braves outfielder just didn’t look like himself last year after suffering a knee injury the year before. Let’s just say the pop is back in that swing and that knee is 100%.

Acuna has taken his game to another level and is in the middle of a special season. He is hitting .331 and leads the National League in runs scored and OPS. But that’s not what makes it special. Acuna gets that distinction because he has a chance for a fabled 40-40 season. That is 40 home runs and 40 stolen bases.

Acuna already has 41 stolen bases, so it’s just a countdown to see if he can hit another 19 dingers in the second half.

Who should win — Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Atlanta Braves

Do you want to know how rare a 40-40 season is? It has only happened four times in the history of baseball. Four times. That’s it. Jose Canseco did it in 1988, Barry Bonds in 1996, Alex Rodriguez in 1998, and Alfonso Soriano in 2006.

So, if Acuna can pull it off he certainly should win MVP. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s not only the best player on the best team in baseball, but also maybe the best and most exciting player in the game not named Shohei Ohtani.

The only thing I could see standing in Acuna’s way would be if Miami Marlins’ hit machine Luis Arraez is somehow able to pull off the exceptionally rare .400 hitting season.

AL Cy Young

Who will win — Gerrit Cole, SP, New York Yankees

Sometimes it’s hard to believe Gerrit Cole has never won the Cy Young Award. And it might be even harder to believe that this might be the year he does it.

By most accounts, this is Cole’s worst season in years. But he’s got a few things going in his favor that Cy Young voters love. Those are a sub-3.00 ERA, a ton of innings pitched, an established legacy, and playing for the New York Yankees doesn’t hurt.

It’s funny, the strikeouts that Cole is usually known for a down a bit this year, but he pitches so many innings he will likely eclipse 200 (another number voters love) for the sixth straight full season. And if they do pick up, at +400 in the AL Cy Young odds, Cole will have a great chance to finally win the award in a field that looks wide open coming out of the All-Star break.

Who should win — Kevin Gausman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays made a really good investment in Kevin Gausman. The right-hander has been outstanding in his first two seasons in Toronto, and this season he is ticking a lot of boxes for a Cy Young award.

For starters, he leads the American League in total strikeouts, strikeouts per nine innings, and FIP. Plus, he is going to log a lot of innings. The only blemish on the resume right now is his north of 3.00 ERA. But only just, as it sits at 3.03 heading into the second half.

And it’s not like Gausman is a longshot here. He’s actually got better odds than Cole at the moment at +350. The Blue Jays are poised to improve in the second half, and if Gausman can improve on a couple of numbers, a Cy Young should be in his future. 

NL Cy Young

Who will win — Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves

Quadzilla and his epic mustache came storming out of the gates this season, racking up strikeouts, strikeouts, and more strikeouts. Spencer Strider has 34 more Ks than anyone else in the National League, and his 14.27 strikeouts per nine is two more than the next closest guy.

Strider hit a little bump in the road in the middle of the first half but bounced back heading into the break, pitching to a 1.38 ERA over his last four starts. And while the ERA needs to get a little better, his 2.84 FIP is third in the NL. Plus, he’s the best pitcher on the best team in baseball.

Currently, he is the second favorite to win the NL Cy Young at +275.

Who should win — Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres

Take away April, and Blake Snell has been the most dominant pitcher in baseball, and it’s not really close. Snell has looked like his old self over his last 13 starts. In those starts he is pitching to a 2.02 ERA, he is limiting opponents to a .174 batting average, his FIP is 2.81, and he’s striking out a ridiculous 12.74 batters per nine innings.

And Snell has been even better since the start of June. He has allowed just three earned runs over his last seven starts (0.64 ERA) and is striking out a crazy 15.21 batters per nine innings over that span.

If he can keep his strong play up and help the Padres get back into the Wild Card race in the process, there could be some value in him to swoop in and steal his second Cy Young Award at +950.

AL Rookie of the Year

Who will win — Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers lineup has been one of the most dangerous in all of baseball this season on their way to the top of the American League West, and rookie third baseman Josh Jung has certainly contributed to that.

The 25-year-old slugger is hitting .280 with a .835 OPS, which includes swatting 19 dingers in the first half of the season. That performance stood out enough to earn the starting nod at third base for the American League in the All-Star Game.

This is one of the tighter award races going on this season. Jung is the favorite, but at just +120, and there are a few guys who could surpass him with a strong second half.

Who should win — Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, Baltimore Orioles

Speaking of that, let me introduce you to Gunnar Henderson. Just another of what seems like an unending supply of elite Orioles prospects.

Henderson is hitting .246 with a .797 OPS and 13 home runs this season. Unfortunately, he was ice-cold to begin the season. However, he has basically gone nuclear since then. Henderson is hitting .307 with a .928 OPS and eight home runs in his last 29 games.

He also plays both third base and shortstop on a regular basis for the O’s. It also feels like Henderson is more integral to the Orioles' success than Jung is to the Rangers. You can get Henderson at +300 in the odds to win AL Rookie of the Year.

NL Rookie of the Year

Who will win — Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Corbin Carroll will be a very deserving winner when he takes home the NL Rookie of the Year Award. The Diamondbacks rookie has been outstanding during his first big-league season and is a big part of his team’s rise in the NL West.

The former top prospect in baseball is hitting .289 with a .915 OPS with 18 home runs, 48 RBIs, and 26 stolen bases. That first half was good enough to earn him a starting outfield spot in this year’s MLB All-Star Game.

Carroll is currently the -300 favorite to win the award, and his team is tied for first in a tough division. So in most years, this would look like a clear-cut case if not for a certain guy out in Cincinnati.

Who should win — Elly De La Cruz, 3B, Cincinnati Reds

Elly De La Cruz has been an absolute force of nature since getting called up to the Cincinnati Reds, and his impact on the team is hard to describe. Besides the fact, the Reds have been winning. A lot.

The Reds called up De La Cruz on June 6. They have gone 23-8 since and now sit atop the National League Central. And their electric rookie is a big part of that. He is hitting .325 with an .887 OPS with four home runs and 16 stolen bases in his first 30 games as a pro.

What will hold De La Cruz back from winning the award is the fact Carroll has played the full season compared to just the last month for the Reds’ rookie. That said, if you like De La Cruz to continue his assault on the NL in the second half, you can get him at +250 to win the award for the league’s top rookie. 

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