New York’s MLB teams have become two of the few major U.S. sports teams to partner with prediction market operators. Most of their peers, however, are staying on the sidelines.
So why are most professional sports clubs still hesitant to go down that road, and when might that change?
Key Takeaways
- Only two teams from the three big U.S. sports leagues have partnered with prediction market operators.
- The NBA and NFL are taking a “wait-and-see” approach to marketing deals.
- Owners waiting on the court system to determine the legality of prediction markets could be waiting until 2028.
Two gaming experts say the answers are long and complex, built around regulation, lawsuits, and taking chances that it all works out.
“I think it’s fear of the fact that there’s uncertainty in how the market is going to be regulated, and for many of these owners and for many of these teams, they have business interests outside of their own state and internationally and worldwide,” American University gaming professor Matthew Bakowicz recently told Covers.
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Slow reactions
When PASPA was overturned in May 2018 and states began legalizing sports betting, the NBA quickly forged ahead with marketing deals, with MLB following shortly after. The NFL took a more subtle approach, but teams began partnering with sportsbooks by 2020.
Prediction markets have been offering sports event contracts since early 2025, just a few months after popular trading exchange Kalshi won a court order to make political markets available during the 2024 presidential election.
Kalshi, Polymarket and others have created deals with sports entities, but team partnerships remain rare.
The Mets became the first MLB team to partner with a prediction market platform when it made a deal with Novig in late July. The Yankees announced an agreement to make Polymarket its official prediction market operator earlier this month.
Only one NHL team, the Chicago Blackhawks, has formed a prediction market partnership, making a deal with Kalshi in late 2025.
Overall, though, major sports franchises have been far slower to embrace prediction markets than they were to embrace legal U.S. sports betting after PASPA. Prediction market operators are federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), but more than a dozen states are challenging their ability to offer sports event contracts within their borders. That uncertainty has made many teams reluctant to enter into partnerships before knowing how the legal landscape will develop.
“They're looking at how the courts are addressing this, but also how the CFTC will address the league’s core concern about sports-specific integrity protections, which simply do not exist in the Commodity Exchange Act or in any of the CFTC's published promulgated regulations,” gaming attorney Daniel Wallach told Covers.
Waiting for change
For most teams, waiting appears to be the preferred strategy. The NBA and NFL, in particular, have shown little interest in rushing into partnerships.
MLB forged ahead of the other two leagues by forming a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC, which agency chair Michael Selig called “a collaborative step towards promoting integrity and resilience of the prediction markets relating to professional baseball.”
This gives MLB a seat at the table when it comes to what the CFTC will allow prediction market sites to offer and bring oversight to those contracts.
“The NFL and the NBA are somewhat in a wait-and-see posture,” Wallach said.
Both leagues have sent letters to the CFTC raising concerns about prediction market rulemaking, age requirements and the ability to work with platforms in the same way they do with sports betting operators. Neither currently has the state-level protections and integrity monitoring that accompany traditional sports betting.
The NBA said it was not taking a legal stance on whether prediction markets are considered gambling but is instead focused on regulation to protect the integrity of the sport. Wallach believes the NBA has taken a prudent approach to gambling-related issues.
“They’re the sharpest people in the room when it comes to a league being savvy about gambling,” Wallach said. “Until those proposed rules are amended to address the league's concern, I just don't think the NBA is at a point yet where it is going to bless the CFTC’s approach and start doing business deals with (prediction market operators that offer) sports event contracts.”
Federal vs. state authority
States have governed sports betting since 2018, establishing their own taxes and rules. Prediction markets, meanwhile, operate under federal oversight through the CFTC, creating a potential clash over who has jurisdiction when those markets offer sports contracts.
“(Owners) want correct legislation to be done in order to make that investment,” Bakowicz said. “What I'm looking at (as an owner) is I'm going to hold off until the decision is made, and ultimately I'm going to make that decision based on when we finally have a regulated system.”
More than $173 billion has been traded on Kalshi since the platform launched in the fall of 2024, making it a money-generating machine. The majority of that volume has come from sports event contracts, which feature game spreads, totals, and future markets for MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, soccer, UFC, and other sports.
Bakowicz believes Mets owner Steve Cohen saw an opportunity to take a chance with the Novig deal. Cohen is also building an $8-billion casino project adjacent to the Mets' stadium after obtaining one of three coveted downstate licenses in December 2025. Hard Rock is partnering with Cohen on the project, which will include a sportsbook in a state with legal retail sports betting.
“I look at Steve Cohen making this decision to say, ‘I’m pretty much betting on every horse,’ if you will,” Bakowicz theorized. “I view a Steve Cohen move as ‘I'm investing in sports betting with Hard Rock. I'm investing in prediction markets. I'm going to make both investments and see which business decision is best for me, and then ultimately bow out of that.’”
The legal road ahead
For most teams, the safest course may be to wait for regulators and courts to provide more clarity. That could take years.
Wallach said it's unlikely the Mets and Yankees entered their prediction market partnerships without some way to exit the deals if the Supreme Court ultimately declares sports event contracts illegal.
Both gaming experts believe ultimately that the final decision on whether those sports contracts are bets or “swaps” will be determined by the Supreme Court over the next couple of years, but the exact timeline is cloudy at best.
Wallach said the timeline depends heavily on a case in New Jersey that could reach the Supreme Court late next year. If that case doesn't become the vehicle for a Supreme Court review, cases in Nevada, Tennessee or Ohio could push a final decision to 2028.
“If all goes well, the Supreme Court could grant cert by December, early January, set it for argument in the spring, and potentially have a ruling on the books by the last week of June of 2027,” Wallach said. “That's the most expeditious timeline, but it's contingent upon the New Jersey case being the vehicle.”
