Wembanyama and Doncic Climb in NBA MVP Odds as SGA’s Lead Shortens

As NBA MVP debates continue to intensify, the heavy favorite, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, is slipping.

Both Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic have made up substantial ground on Gilgeous-Alexander, who seemed like a shoo-in to win the award.

Key Takeaways

• Gilgeous-Alexander had been shorter than -1000.
  
  
• Wembanyama recently shared three reasons why he felt he was the MVP of the league.
  
  
• Doncic averaged nearly 40 points per game over the last three weeks.

Gilgeous-Alexander, the reigning MVP, is still a sizable favorite to win the league’s most prestigious individual award. However, after being shorter than -1000 at top online sportsbooks, his NBA MVP odds have dropped to as low as -500 (83.3% implied chance) at DraftKings. 

As SGA’s odds have declined, both Wembanyama and Doncic have experienced jolts in their odds to win the MVP.

Wembanyama could become the youngest MVP winner if he earns the confidence of the voters, assuming the mantle currently held by former Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose (22 years and 191 days old). He recently said that “it is still reasonable that there is a debate” as to who deserves the honor, before listing three reasons why he felt that he deserved it over his peers:

• He is the most impactful defensive player in the league
• The Spurs won four of five matchups against the Oklahoma City Thunder
• His offensive impact goes beyond points

Asked Wemby to provide his 3 campaign bullet points for why he should be MVP https://t.co/HjRppaPLfY pic.twitter.com/FHXrFMjAi3

— Jared Weiss (@JaredWeissNBA) March 24, 2026

With odds as short as +500, Wembanyama has at best an implied 16.7% chance—still a long way to go to catch the lead dog.

Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer, finds his shortest odds at Caesars at +1100 (8.3% chance). While he was always among the top 10 candidates for the award, he never made substantial headway until recently.

The Los Angeles Lakers are in the middle of an excellent stretch that caused them to rise from +8000 to +3000 in FanDuel’s NBA Finals odds just over the past couple of weeks. Their Slovenian superstar also played at an extraordinarily high level during that time, averaging 39.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 7.3 assists on 48% shooting over his last 11 games, eight of those coming against projected playoff teams.

Luka Doncic is the first player to average 40 points over a six-game span — all on the road — since MJ in 1986 😳

Luka Magic 🪄 pic.twitter.com/1TuT78Yu1T

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) March 26, 2026

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Breaking down the NBA MVP race

While both Wembanyama and Doncic are making the MVP race a compelling storyline over the final weeks of the season, Gilgeous-Alexander is not going out of his way to lose the award.

Since returning from a right abdominal strain at the end of November, last year’s Finals MVP averaged 30.3 points, 7.4 assists, and 4.3 rebounds on 57.2% shooting in 12 games, 11 of those being wins. The Thunder also have the best record in the NBA, leading the Spurs by two games and the Lakers by 10 in the race for the first seed in the Western Conference.

Here’s a look at the players’ relevant stats:

• Gilgeous-Alexander: 31.5 points, 4.4 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.4 steals, 55.7% FG, 39.3% 3PT, +7.8 on/off net rating
  
  
• Victor Wembanyama: 24.2 points, 11.2 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 3.1 blocks, 1.1 steals, 50.5% FG, 35.1% 3PT, +16.9 on/off net rating
  
  
• Luka Doncic: 33.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 47.4% FG, 36.4% 3PT, +5.0 on/off net rating

A team's regular-season record has been an important part of determining the MVP in years past. That could spell trouble for Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder, who finish the year with a tough run of games.

OKC will face off against the New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons, Lakers (twice), Los Angeles Clippers, Denver Nuggets, and Phoenix Suns between now and their final game on April 12. Tankathon ranks that as the second-toughest remaining schedule, while the Spurs are only 20th, and the Lakers 22nd.

The head-to-head matchups between the Lakers and Thunder could also give Doncic a platform to vault in MVP odds if he puts together great performances and helps his team take down the conference leaders.

Sportsbooks get it wrong?

Sportsbook odds are not always perfect, but they are usually indicative of what is going to happen. However, there have been notable exceptions.

One recent case of sportsbooks getting their award odds completely wrong came in 2023.

Buffalo Bills safety, Damar Hamlin, who went into cardiac arrest during a game, was an enormous favorite to win the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. He ended up losing it to then 39-year-old Joe Flacco, who only played in five games for the Cleveland Browns.

The Thunder, Spurs, and Lakers all have exactly nine games left in their regular seasons. The Thunder and Lakers will be in action on Friday night, and the Spurs will kick off the Saturday afternoon slate.

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