Luka Doncic’s blistering form on the basketball court has caused a substantial surge in his odds to win NBA MVP, and the Los Angeles Lakers’ NBA Finals odds.
Doncic scored 60 points against the Miami Heat on Thursday night, less than 24 hours after he hung 40 on the Houston Rockets in a pivotal battle for positioning in the Western Conference.
Key Takeaways
- Doncic is as low as +1400 to win the MVP at major online sportsbooks.
- His 60 points were the most one player ever scored in one game against the Heat.
- The Lakers are up to eighth (+3500) to win the Finals at bet365.
While Doncic still trails reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in NBA MVP odds, he made up an extraordinary amount of ground in recent days.
According to The Athletic’s Doug Kezirian, the Slovenian superstar shortened from +10000 a few days ago to +1700 odds as of early Friday morning.
Luka is now the 2nd MVP betting favorite with consensus odds around +1700
— Doug Kezirian (@DougKezirian) March 20, 2026
* was 100/1 a few days ago pic.twitter.com/c9LrYrO63F
Sportsbooks made the race even closer in the hours since that post. Caesars lists Doncic at +1400, while FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, and bet365 all have him at +1500.
Prediction markets at Kalshi took it a step further. While +1500 odds only carry a 6.3% implied probability, the platform’s user base pushed Doncic up to a 14% chance to win the award. He was only at 1% one week ago.
The sudden swell in support comes during an extraordinary eight-game stretch for Doncic and the Lakers, during which the team went 8-0, and he averaged 40.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per contest.
It also comes during an ongoing feud with his estranged fiancée, Anamaria Goltes, who is currently living in Slovenia. Reports this month indicated that she ended her engagement with Doncic and filed for child support and attorney fees. Doncic is fighting to have their two-year-old and newborn with him in the U.S.
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Lakers climb NBA Finals odds
| Team | NBA Finals odds (bet365) |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +130 |
| Boston Celtics | +550 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +600 |
| Denver Nuggets | +850 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +1100 |
| New York Knicks | +1500 |
| Detroit Pistons | +2500 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +3500 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +4000 |
| Houston Rockets | +6000 |
With Doncic playing like the best player in the world, the Lakers are as low as +3500 in odds to win the NBA Finals at bet365 sportsbook. FanDuel lists them at the longest odds of all major online sportsbooks (+4500).
The Purple and Gold sit third in the Western Conference, seven games behind the second-place San Antonio Spurs and two games above the Minnesota Timberwolves. Their remaining strength of schedule only ranks 20th in the NBA, and they already secured tiebreakers over the teams in 4-6th place (Timberwolves, Rockets, and Nuggets).
They also proved themselves against several of the best teams in the league during their ongoing winning streak, during which they outscored their opponents by an average of 9.7 points per 100 possessions. That included wins against the Knicks, Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Rockets (twice).
Despite LA’s recent surge, they still have to overcome a strong precedent. More than 90% of teams that went on to win the NBA Finals followed Phil Jackson’s rule of winning 40 games before they lost 20.
The Lakers only had 32 wins under their belt when they lost their 20th games on Feb. 9. They went 13-5 in the time since.
Looking to the playoffs
If the current standings hold, the Lakers would face the Nuggets in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. A win in that series would advance them to take on, presumably, the San Antonio Spurs, before meeting the Thunder in the Conference Finals.
bet365 has the Lakers at fourth in odds to win the West at +1800, which only carries a 5.3% implied chance. The Thunder (-130), Spurs (+350), and Nuggets (+500) are all ahead of them.
