Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has the largest lead of the season in NFL MVP odds thanks to a slipup Sunday from the New England Patriots' Drake Maye.
Key Takeaways
- Stafford would tie Y.A.Tittle and Rich Gannon as the oldest first-time NFL MVP (37).
- Maye was just held under 200 yards passing for the first time all year.
- Only one top-eight finisher in last year’s MVP voting is in the race for this year’s award.
| Player | bet365 | BetMGM | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | -275 | -300 | -260 |
| Drake Maye | +400 | +400 | +380 |
| Josh Allen | +500 | +500 | +600 |
| Bo Nix | +7,500 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
| Jordan Love | +10,000 | +8,000 | +15,000 |
| Sam Darnold | +10,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
Stafford and Maye have been locked in a seemingly two-horse race to win the MVP trophy for more than a month.
Just two weeks ago, Maye was installed as a -120 favorite, while Stafford was back around +120. The 37-year-old, 14 years the senior of Maye, reclaimed a narrow lead one week later, leading into a decisive Week 15.
Stafford and the Rams took down the visiting Detroit Lions, 41-34, behind their QB’s 368 yards and two touchdowns against one interception.
Maye and the Pats got off to a hot start against the AFC East rival Buffalo Bills, surging ahead to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter and a 24-7 halftime score. However, their second-half collapse allowed the visiting Bills to steal a 35-31 victory.
Maye was held below 200 passing yards for the first time all season. He finished with 155 passing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and an interception, while the Pats’ winning streak ended at 10 games.
Stafford’s shortest odds, -300 at BetMGM, translate to a 75% implied chance to win the award. Maye’s +380 at FanDuel equals a 20.8% implied chance.
The Rams finish their season by visiting the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons and hosting the Arizona Cardinals.
The Pats' three-game run includes matchups at the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets and against the Miami Dolphins.
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Dark-horse MVP candidates
While it seems hard to believe that anyone other than Stafford or Maye could win the MVP, the reigning award-winner is doing his best to surprise.
Buoyed by the comeback victory on Sunday, Bills QB Josh Allen is down to around +500 at the top online sportsbooks. He had 193 passing yards and three touchdowns last weekend and is now fourth in passing TDs, sixth in QBR, and eighth in passing yards.
The closest challenger is Denver Broncos QB Bo Nix, although his lowest odds are +7,500 at bet365. That gives him just a 1.3% implied chance to take home the award.
Just below Nix is Jordan Love, whose Green Bay Packers fell in Mile High on Sunday. Love is anywhere from +8,000 to +15,000 despite leading the NFL in QBR and ranking fifth in touchdowns and seventh in passing yards.
The only other player who seemingly has a chance is Sam Darnold. The long shot is +10,000 across the board as he prepares to face Stafford and the Rams on Thursday Night Football.
How quickly things change ...
The 2025 NFL MVP odds race is nothing like the one a year ago.
While Allen is still in the mix after winning last year’s award, none of the other top eight finishers a year ago are in with a shot at the 2025 MVP. Justin Herbert, who finished ninth, is about seventh in odds (anywhere from +10,000 to +15,000), and Darnold, who was 10th last year, is sixth in current odds.
Assuming a quarterback wins the MVP - which seems inevitable - it will mark 13 years since a player at a different position took the award. The last to do so was running back Adrian Peterson.
