Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley won NFL Offensive Player of the Year last year after he rushed for 2,005 yards – yet the betting public is confident he will struggle in 2025.
According to BetMGM’s John Ewing, the sportsbook’s most-bet player prop futures bet is for Barkley to run for less than 1500.5 yards in 2025.
Key Takeaways
- Barkley became the ninth player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season last year
- Every player who ran for 2,000 yards in a season saw their yards per carry decrease the next year
- DraftKings has Barkley at +275 to lead the league in rushing yards
Barkley became just the ninth player in NFL history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season last year, his first with the Eagles. He achieved that in just 16 games, as he sat out of a Week 18 matchup with the New York Giants to preserve his health for a postseason run that culminated in a Super Bowl title.
The 28-year-old’s previous career-high was just 1,312 yards, set in 2022.
According to BetMGM’s insights, shared on July 9, 85 percent of the handle for Barkley’s rushing total was on the under (currently -125 odds). That’s despite him having the consensus largest predicted total of any player.
While BetMGM does not have a “Rushing Leader” market available, DraftKings gave Barkley +275 odds to finish the regular season with the most individual rushing yards. Derrick Henry was second at +400, followed by Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey at +1000.
It’s also worth noting that there is disagreement among the sportsbooks regarding Barkley’s predicted total. DraftKings and FanDuel both have Barkley at a line of over/under 1450.5, 50 yards fewer than BetMGM’s total.
A negative precedent
Despite his majestic season last year, Barkley will face a tough road getting over his projected total.
Of the eight other players who rushed for 2,000 yards in a season, only one of them, Barry Sanders, eclipsed 1450.5 the following season.
| Player | Rushing Yards | Over/Under 1450.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Dickerson | 1,234 | Under |
| Adrian Peterson | 1,266 | Under |
| Jamal Lewis | 1,006 | Under |
| Barry Sanders | 1,491 | Over |
| Derrick Henry | 937 | Under |
| Terrell Davis | 211 | Under |
| Chris Johnson | 1,364 | Under |
| O.J. Simpson | 1,125 | Under |
Additionally, every player performed worse – in some cases, significantly worse – in the season following their 2,000-yard campaign.
All eight players averaged at least one fewer yard per carry than they did the season before. The overall average fell from 5.6 yards per carry during the 2,000-yard season to 4.2 the following year.
Health is also a significant factor. Every player except for O.J. Simpson played in 16 games during their 2,000-yard season (average of 15.8) compared to an average of 12.3 games the following season.
The most extreme examples were Terrell Davis and Derrick Henry, who played in four and eight games, respectively, the next year.
Barkley was given an enormous workload last year. He carried the ball 436 times across the regular and postseason, compared to his previous career-high of 313. That means that he could be at an elevated injury risk, just like the previous 2,000-yard rushers.
Still poised for success
Although BetMGM bettors might be pessimistic about Barkley’s outlook, the sportsbook still has him as the clear favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year for the second straight year.
His +500 odds are well ahead of second-place Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) and Jahmyr Gibbs (+1000), as well as Henry (+1400), Bijan Robinson (+1500), and Justin Jefferson (+1600).
