Sunday's action in Week 12 was good for NFL moneyline parlay bettors, but a flurry of failed covers in the early slate was certainly positive for sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- The Lions, Seahawks, and Chiefs failing to cover was good for operators.
- Favorites were 9-3 straight up, helping moneyline bettors cash.
- The 49ers are more than a touchdown favorite at home against the Panthers.
Against closing lines, only four of the 12 favorites covered the spread Sunday, with just two coming from the first group of games, but they did go 9-3 straight up.
Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football, Joey Feazel, called the results a “mixed bag.”
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account“That made for a strong morning for moneyline parlay bettors, who have enjoyed plenty of success in recent years,” Feazel said. “The afternoon slate brought more balanced action overall, with the biggest decision coming on the total in the Cowboys-Eagles matchup.”
Books' wins
Several of the more popular teams with the public struggled Sunday, leading to big wins for the books.
Feazel said the two biggest were the Lions, who failed to cover a double-digit spread in a 34-27 win over the Giants, and the Chiefs, who rallied from a 20-9 deficit to win 23-20 in overtime as 3.5-point favorites.
At BetMGM, four of the five most-bet teams by handle failed to cover the spread. The Lions and Chiefs were also in that mix, but the Patriots were the leader. New England held off Cincinnati 26-20, which left bettors checking the exact line, which ranged between 5.5 and 7.5 throughout the week but closed with the latter.
The Saints were getting over 80% of the handle at BetMGM but were outright losers, as the 2-point favorites over the Falcons got destroyed 24-10. The Bears won by three as a 2.5-point favorites over the Steelers, who were getting a slight majority of money at BetMGM as the underdog.
The Seahawks, with over 70% of the money, failed to cover as double-digit favorites in a 30-24 win over the lowly Titans.
Public's triumphs
Bettors found solace in some other popular teams. Feazel said “bettors loved the Cowboys throughout the week,” and Dak Prescott led Dallas back from a 21-0 deficit to win 24-21 to reward the public’s loyalty.
The Cowboys were getting 55% of the money in one of the top three most-bet games of the week at BetMGM. Nearly 80% of the online sportsbook’s total handle on that game was also on the under, which missed the hit by three points.
Feazel said that despite Green Bay’s 4-7 record against the spread, wagers were “still coming in on the Packers week in and week out.” They delivered on Sunday, thrashing the Vikings 23-6 as 6.5-point favorites and giving bettors an easy win. More than 55% of the handle at BetMGM backed the Packers.
The Rams, who got 70% of the spread money as 7.5-point favorites, were a good win for the public Sunday night with a dominant 34-7 victory over the Buccaneers. The Jaguars pushed for some bettors and hit for others as they needed a field-goal win in overtime to avoid a bad loss at Arizona.
MNF insights
San Fransico enters the final game of Week 12 as a 7.5-point favorite at home against Carolina. The 49ers are getting 56% of the bets and 78% of the handle at BetMGM.
DraftKings, however, has seen about 60% of the money on Carolina +7.5, with 53% of the bets on the home favorite. The 49ers are getting 86% of the moneyline bets, but the Panthers are seeing 32% of the outright handle.
The total of 49.5 is split, with 56% of the bets on the under but 53% of the handle on the over.
Panthers receiver Tetairoa McMillan’s over 62.5 receiving yards is the most-bet player prop at BetMGM, while 49ers tight end George Kittle (+130) leads in the anytime touchdown scorer market.
Circa sweats
Monday is a big night for the Circa Sports Survivor and Grandissimo contests.
Of the 900 remaining entries competing for Circa Survivor’s $18.17-million prize pool, 298 participants are riding the 49ers on Monday night. The Raiders eliminated the most entries Sunday, knocking out 29 participants.
#CircaSurvivor 2025🏈🏆Week 12 Selections
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 23, 2025
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In the Grandissimo, which has a prize pool of nearly $7 million, six entries remain. Four made it through Week 12, leaving two participants relying on the 49ers for them to do the same.
#CircaGrandissimo 2025🏈🏆Week 12 Selections
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) November 23, 2025
📄https://t.co/4vkcQKO70T pic.twitter.com/rMmcHUwVwe
