New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is the new odds-on favorite to win the 2025 NFL MVP coming out of Week 17.
Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford was favored entering Monday Night Football, where he threw three interceptions against the Atlanta Falcons.
Key Takeaways
- Stafford was a -250 favorite heading into Monday Night Football.
- Maye leads the NFL in QBR and completion percentage, while Stafford leads in passing TDs.
- Maye is almost guaranteed to play in Week 18, while Stafford’s status is in the air.
| bet365 | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye | -450 | -700 | -400 | -500 |
| Matthew Stafford | +325 | +425 | +300 | +320 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +15,000 | +20,000 | +18,000 | +15,000 |
| Caleb Williams | +15,000 | +25,000 | +18,000 | +30,000 |
Despite Maye’s excellent five-touchdown performance against the New York Jets over the weekend, Stafford entered MNF as a -250 favorite at bet365, BetMGM, and FanDuel. Maye was at +175, +200, and +200 at those same sportsbooks.
Those odds would soon flip dramatically during the course of the Rams' 27-24 loss to the Falcons, in which Stafford finished the contest with 269 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions.
FanDuel dropped Stafford to -155 after he threw his first interception, a pick-six to Jessie Bates. Maye was moved up to +125.
It's moving.... https://t.co/vyaTuzuckN pic.twitter.com/ucEv8Sn9O0
— Josh Inglis (@Covers_josh) December 30, 2025
By the time he threw his third and final interception to Xavier Watts, the longstanding favorite had plummeted to +350, while Maye had shortened to -450.
MATTHEW STAFFORD WITH ANOTHER BRUTAL INT
— Covers (@Covers) December 30, 2025
Stafford is now +350 to win MVP 📉
Drake Maye is -450 to win the award 📈pic.twitter.com/1BTtCxQpuG
Now that the odds have settled as of Tuesday morning, Maye finds himself with an 81.8 to 87.5% implied chance to win the NFL MVP, according to the top online sportsbooks’ NFL MVP odds. Stafford has a 19.1 to 23.5% implied chance.
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Breaking down the cases
Both Maye and Stafford have extremely compelling cases for the MVP trophy.
On one hand, Maye’s Patriots are tied for the best record in the NFL (13-3) and are fighting for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The 23-year-old sophomore leads the NFL in completion percentage (71.7) and QBR (76.5), and has a stat line of 4,203 passing yards (fourth), 30 passing touchdowns (t-third), and eight interceptions. He also has 409 rushing yards and four rushing TDs.
Stafford’s Rams are second in Super Bowl odds at +600 at FanDuel, only trailing the Seattle Seahawks. He ranks fourth in QBR (70.1) and has a line of 4,448 passing yards (second), 42 passing TDs (first), and eight interceptions.
This isn’t the first time that Maye has been atop the NFL MVP oddsboard, although Stafford had been the leader since Week 11.
The lack of odds movement prior to MNF implied that the oddsmakers were waiting for Stafford to lose the award more than they were for Maye to win it. That presents an intriguing scenario entering the final week of the regular season.
With the Patriots in line to receive the top seed in the AFC with a win over the Miami Dolphins and a Denver Broncos loss against the Los Angeles Chargers, Maye is almost guaranteed to play in Week 18.
The Rams, meanwhile, are stuck in the fifth or sixth seed in the NFC. They will move up to the fifth seed if they beat the Arizona Cardinals and the Seahawks lose to the San Francisco 49ers.
There’s no seed-based incentive for Sean McVay to play Stafford and the rest of L.A.’s starters. However, he may want them to get more reps since they underperformed on Monday.
NFL MVP trend continues
The next MVP will be either Maye or Stafford, barring a miracle. Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is the next-closest player but only has an implied chance of 0.5 to 0.7%, depending on the sportsbook.
This will mark the 14th straight year that a quarterback won the NFL MVP trophy. The last non-quarterback to claim the honor was running back Adrian Peterson in 2012.
