New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had five touchdowns in three quarters in Week 17 but still trails Los Angeles Rams gunslinger Matthew Stafford in NFL Most Valuable Player odds.
Key Takeaways
- The lack of odds movement suggests Stafford will need to lose the award for himself.
- Maye would tie for the second-youngest QB to win NFL MVP.
- Stafford could tie the record for the oldest first-time MVP.
| Player | bet365 odds | BetMGM odds | FanDuel odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | -250 | -250 | -250 |
| Drake Maye | +175 | +200 | +200 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +15,000 | +20,000 | +20,000 |
| Caleb Williams | +15,000 | +15,000 | +30,000 |
| Josh Allen | +15,000 | +15,000 | +30,000 |
| Justin Herbert | +30,000 | +50,000 | +30,000 |
Maye set the bar extremely high yet again for Stafford, going for 256 yards and five touchdowns while completing 90.5% of his passes in a 42-10 win over the New York Jets on Sunday. The second-year QB now ranks third in passing yards (4,203) and touchdowns (30), first in QBR (76.5) and completion percentage (71.7), and only has eight interceptions.
One week ago, BetMGM gave Maye +165 odds to hoist the MVP trophy. The sportsbook now has the 23-year-old at +200 despite his stellar showing over the weekend.
Based on odds from the top online sportsbooks, Maye has a 33.3%-36.4% implied chance to become the joint second-youngest quarterback to win football’s highest individual honor. Stafford, meanwhile, is locked at a 71.4% chance before he takes the field in prime time.
Week 17 could also be the last week that Stafford takes the field. His Rams are stuck in either the fifth or sixth seed due to the strength of the NFC West, which includes the 13-3 Seattle Seahawks and 12-4 San Francisco 49ers.
Maye and the Patriots, meanwhile, are still alive for the top seed in the AFC. They’re tied with the conference-leading Denver Broncos at 13-3 but do not have the tiebreaker, meaning they need to beat the Miami Dolphins and have the Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers to win the conference.
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Stafford can seal MVP case on MNF
NFL MVP odds have long suggested it's been a two-horse race that includes Maye.
However, the lack of movement following Maye’s incredible Sunday performance suggests Stafford will need to lose the award more than Maye can steal it away.
That doesn't bode well for Maye, 14 years the junior to Stafford. The veteran is coming off of throwing for 457 yards and three touchdowns against the Seahawks’ largely impregnable defense, and he’s first in touchdowns (40) and fourth in yards (4,179) despite not yet playing his Week 17 game.
The Falcons rank 10th in passing yards allowed per game (195.1) and 20th in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.6), giving the 37-year-old a fair opportunity to bolster his stats and ensure he ties the record for the oldest first-time MVP.
Any chance of an upset?
Aside from Stafford and Maye, there aren’t many players who are still receiving NFL MVP odds.
Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, and Josh Allen are in very similar positions, and Justin Herbert is behind them. Sam Darnold and Bo Nix also have odds at every major online sportsbook, although they have implied probabilities of less than half a percent.
