Just when the NFL MVP race appeared to be headed for a resolution, it has now become a two-horse race heading into the final weeks of the regular season.
Key Takeaways
- Drake Maye would tie Mahomes as the second-youngest QB to win MVP.
- Matthew Stafford already became the second player ever to have 40+ TDs and five or fewer INTs through 15 games.
- Josh Allen, the third-place candidate, has less than a 4% chance to win the award.
| Player | BetMGM | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | -210 | -220 | -185 |
| Drake Maye | +165 | +175 | +170 |
| Josh Allen | +2,500 | +2,500 | +2,500 |
| Trevor Lawrence | +5,000 | +6,000 | +5,000 |
| Justin Herbert | +10,000 | +8,000 | +7,500 |
| Caleb Williams | +10,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
| Sam Darnold | +10,000 | +10,000 | +10,000 |
The MVP race between Stafford and Maye appeared to be over when Stafford crept below the -200 line for the first time last week.
That sentiment was furthered last Thursday, when Stafford tossed 457 yards and three touchdowns, albeit in a loss, against the Seattle Seahawks. That performance brought him to first in the league in passing yards (4,179) and passing touchdowns (40) against only five interceptions.
Maye, who struggled to 155 yards and one interception the week before, responded in kind. The 23-year-old ripped off 380 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception in Sunday’s win over the Baltimore Ravens, tying the New England Patriots for the NFL's best record at 12-3, one game ahead of Stafford’s Los Angeles Rams.
Using FanDuel’s NFL MVP odds, Stafford has a 64.9% implied chance to take home football’s highest individual award. Maye is still alive with a 37% implied chance, before reigning MVP Josh Allen at 3.9%.
DraftKings’ -220 odds for Stafford, shortest among top online sportsbooks, implies a 68.8% chance. DraftKings also has Maye at +175 (36.4% chance).
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Fighting for history
Both Stafford and Maye are not only chasing the MVP trophy - they’re chasing a bit of history.
Stafford would tie Y.A. Tittle and Rich Gannon for the oldest first-time MVP winner at 37 years old. Maye would tie Patrick Mahomes for the second-youngest quarterback to win, only behind Lamar Jackson.
Stafford joined 2020 NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers as the only players in league history to have 40+ passing touchdowns and no more than five interceptions through 15 games. Rodgers claimed 44 of 50 first-place votes that year.
Interestingly, advanced stats suggest that the odds market is missing one obvious candidate: Jordan Love.
While Brock Purdy leads the NFL in adjusted EPA per play, his eight missed games mean he’s essentially ineligible for the award. Second in that list, however, is Love, who also has 3,381 yards, 23 touchdowns, and six interceptions for the 9-5-1 Green Bay Packers.
Maye, Stafford, and Allen are ranked third-to-fifth in the metric.
Road ahead
Los Angeles will finish its regular season by visiting the Atlanta Falcons and then hosting the Arizona Cardinals. Those teams rank 21st and 29th in points allowed per game and eighth and 22nd in passing yards allowed per contest, respectively.
New England will conclude its season on the road against the New York Jets and at home against the Miami Dolphins. They are 30th and 22nd in average points allowed and 13th and 14th in average passing yards allowed, respectively.
