New York's gubernatorial election could shape the state's approach to online casino legalization and its ongoing fight over sports prediction markets.
- Gov. Kathy Hochul has backed downstate casino expansion and signed a sweepstakes casino ban, but online casino legislation remains stalled.
- Bruce Blakeman supported a proposed Nassau County casino and criticized Hochul's approach to Kalshi but has not outlined a statewide iGaming policy.
- Markets and independent polls favor Hochul.
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul's gambling record includes supporting new casino development and taking enforcement action against unauthorized operators. Blakeman, meanwhile, has supported a major Nassau County casino proposal and questioned her approach to Kalshi.
The candidates meet on the Nov. 3 ballot in a state where mobile sports betting is already established but online slots and table games remain unapproved. Markets and independent polling favor Hochul, leaving iGaming supporters facing the possibility of another term with a governor who has not fully embraced their proposal. The governor’s race is unfolding alongside a broader national contest for political control. Covers’ 2026 Midterm Election Odds Tracker tracks how prediction markets are pricing the fight for Congress and other key races.
Hochul backs licensed casinos, challenges prediction markets
Hochul’s record separates expanding licensed land-based gambling from allowing additional online products.
Her administration oversaw the process that culminated in three downstate casino license approvals in December 2025: Resorts World New York City, Hard Rock Metropolitan Park, and Bally’s Bronx. In an official statement, she welcomed the jobs and tax revenue the projects are expected to generate but said developers must deliver on their promises.
That support has not translated into authorization for online casinos. Hochul left iGaming out of her 2024 executive budget, and subsequent proposals have remained stalled. She hasn't committed to signing the current bill, but she also hasn't ruled out supporting online casinos.
She has taken firmer action against other online gambling (or gambling-adjacent) models. Hochul signed the state's sweepstakes casino ban in December 2025, targeting the operation and promotion of the dual-currency products and becoming one of the first governors to take such aggressive action.
In July, she and Attorney General Letitia James announced a lawsuit against Kalshi, alleging an unlicensed gambling operation. They cited consumer protection, underage access, and compliance with state rules. Kalshi maintains states such as New York have no authority over its federally regulated contracts.
If reelected, Hochul could continue supporting licensed casino projects and taking action against platforms the state considers unauthorized. Meanwhile, New York online casino supporters would still need her engagement on a separate legislative agreement.
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Blakeman’s casino record leaves statewide questions
Blakeman has supported casino development as an economic project, but his limited record as a local elected official does not resolve how he would regulate gambling statewide.
As Nassau County executive, he signed the original 2023 lease associated with Las Vegas Sands’ proposed redevelopment of the Nassau Coliseum site, according to the county’s environmental review documents. That support predates the governor race and concerned a specific land-based project rather than statewide online slots or poker.
Blakeman has offered a more direct contrast on prediction markets. Speaking to reporters in August, he criticized Hochul for rejecting a potential revenue agreement with Kalshi. Those remarks suggest a preference for negotiation over Hochul's enforcement approach but does not establish licensing terms, age limits, or a comprehensive policy for event contracts.
His official campaign materials emphasize tax relief and public safety without specifying an iGaming tax rate, operator licensing framework, or even a commitment to sign the pending online casino bill.
A Blakeman victory could change New York's approach to gambling, but it wouldn't guarantee online casino legalization. He would likely face Democratic majorities in both legislative chambers, while casino operators, organized labor, and gambling-harm advocates would retain their own concerns.
Democrats likely to retain legislative control
Democrats are strongly positioned to keep the Senate and Assembly, making agreement within the party central to any online casino bill. All 63 Senate seats and 150 Assembly seats are up for election.
Unified control has not delivered iGaming legalization. Sen. Joseph Addabbo Jr.’s latest proposal faces concerns about gambling harms and competition with existing casinos, including opposition from labor interests worried about jobs.
The online casino and interactive lottery measure has stalled in the Senate's Racing, Gaming and Wagering Committee. It was referred there again in January 2026 and has not passed either chamber.
New York gambling legislation timeline
| 2025 | Hochul signs S5935A, banning online sweeps casinos and sportsbooks using the targeted dual-currency model. |
| 2024 | Hochul leaves online casino legalization out of her executive budget despite Addabbo’s renewed legislation. |
| 2023 | Addabbo’s S4856 iGaming effort fails to secure authorization, prompting another push for the following session. |
The debate now takes place alongside downstate casino development and an established mobile sportsbook market. Those are distinct businesses: Approval of physical casinos does not authorize statewide online casino games, and a sweepstakes ban does not itself create a regulated alternative.
A Hochul victory would preserve the party’s opportunity to negotiate internally, while a Blakeman win would introduce divided government. Either outcome leaves licensing, taxes, consumer safeguards, and labor protections to be settled.
The prediction market dispute also extends beyond Albany. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission directed Kalshi to continue operating in August, underscoring that the election alone cannot settle the fight over federal and state authority.
Prediction markets give Hochul a commanding lead
As of Wednesday afternoon, Kalshi displayed an approximate 94% probability of a Democratic victory and about 7% for Republicans. Polymarket priced Hochul at 95% and Blakeman at 5%, with approximately $281,000 traded. These state-level markets form part of the wider picture tracked in Covers’ 2026 midterm prediction market odds tracker.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11 survey conducted Oct. 3-5 put Hochul ahead 52%-40%, with 8% undecided. The poll surveyed 900 likely voters and reported a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The numbers favor continuity in the governor’s office, but continuity would leave online casino legalization unresolved. Addabbo has repeatedly said online casino legislation needs the governor's support to become law.
