Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are the most popular pick to win the NBA Finals since the start of the 2025-26 season at one major sportsbook.
BetMGM revealed that the Spurs have received more futures tickets than any team, while the Golden State Warriors claimed a larger share of the pot than any team since the start of the season.
Key Takeaways
- The Spurs and Warriors both gained about 1.4% probability to win the Finals.
- The Nuggets are the public’s favorite pick, but the Spurs are the biggest liability.
- Odds suggest the next NBA Finals will feature the Thunder and Cavaliers.
| Team | BetMGM | FanDuel | DraftKings | Caesars | Fanatics |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thunder | +240 | +200 | +240 | +265 | +220 |
| Nuggets | +550 | +650 | +600 | +550 | +650 |
| Cavaliers | +700 | +700 | +850 | +800 | +750 |
| Knicks | +1,000 | +1,200 | +900 | +900 | +1,000 |
| Rockets | +1,800 | +2,200 | +1,100 | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Lakers | +1,600 | +1,800 | +1,700 | +1,600 | +1,500 |
| Warriors | +1,800 | +1,500 | +1,200 | +1,000 | +1,600 |
Last year’s champions, the Oklahoma City Thunder, are still BetMGM’s leader in NBA Finals odds at +240, exactly where they opened. However, several teams have closed the gap.
“Since the season started, the Spurs (tickets) and Warriors (money) are the most bet teams to win the NBA Championship,” said Halvor Egeland, BetMGM trading strategy manager. “(Victor Wembanyama) looks like the MVP and Steph (Curry) & Co. have impressive wins against the (Los Angeles) Lakers and (Denver) Nuggets. Each team has seen their respective odds shorten after hot starts.”
The Warriors are closer to climbing the mountaintop in the eyes of the oddsmakers. Their odds shortened from +2,500 to +1,800, while the Spurs are down from +6,600 to +3,500. The implied probabilities of those odds suggest that both teams are about 1.4% more likely to win the title than they were just one week before.
While those two teams have dominated public betting since the season began, the Nuggets still have the highest share of tickets (15.2%) and of the handle (14.8%) in BetMGM’s NBA Finals futures betting.
The Thunder (9% of tickets, 13.3% of the handle) and the Lakers (8.1% of wagers, 12.2% of the money), who are +1,600 to win the title, are next. The Warriors are fourth in both tickets (6.8%) and money (11.3%).
The Spurs are sixth in bets (5.9%) and handle share (6.5%). The New York Knicks (6.8% of tickets) are a more popular pick, but they only have 5.2% of the total money wagered (seventh).
'Sharp money' on Flagg, Mavericks
First-overall pick Cooper Flagg and the Dallas Mavericks have also received lots of support from “sharp” bettors. They are only eighth in ticket share (5.2%), yet they’re fifth in their split of the handle (7.1%) to win the NBA Finals.
Despite that, they lengthened from +3,500 before the season began to +4,000 following a 1-3 start to the year.
The Anthony Edwards-led Minnesota Timberwolves, who only have 3.9% of tickets and 2.4% of the handle, have also lengthened from +1,300 to +1,800.
Kevin Durant’s Houston Rockets are up from +1,400 to +1,800 despite having 5.5% of bets (seventh) and 5.2% of the money (seventh).
Similarly, the Orlando Magic – who made a blockbuster summer trade for sharpshooter Desmond Bane – have quickly swelled from +1,800 to +2,500. They’re just outside the bottom 10 in the NBA for tickets and money.
On the flip side, the Philadelphia 76ers are already down from +4,000 to +2,500 thanks to a 4-0 beginning to their season, powered by Tyrese Maxey and surging NBA Rookie of the Year odds candidate VJ Edgecombe. The Sixers have 3% of bets (12th) and 4.9% of the handle (ninth).
NBA conference futures odds
BetMGM has the Cavaliers and Knicks in a close race to win the Eastern Conference at +230 and +300, respectively. Bettors have picked the 76ers more than any other team (14.2%), while backing the Knicks with the most money (20.4%).
In the West, the Thunder are already a +155 favorite to win the conference. Despite that, the Nuggets lead in ticket share (16.3), while the Mavs are just ahead of the Warriors for the highest split of the handle (18%).
