The return of Micah Parsons to Dallas is grabbing bettors’ attention in what’s shaping up to be another action-filled weekend in the NFL.
Key Takeaways
- Bettors are backing the Packers and Parsons to get a sack in Sunday’s prime-time game.
- The NFL’s first European matchup of 2025 is seeing Vikings action.
- Favorites like the Bills, Chargers, and Lions are getting hit hard.
The former Cowboys pass-rusher held out during training camp, leading his old organization to trade him to the Green Bay Packers. On Sunday night, he’ll be chasing down former teammate Dak Prescott for the first time in a game that bettors certainly have circled for Week 4.
“Our most-bet game by total handle is Packers-Cowboys as Micah Parsons returns to Jerry World in prime time,” said Adrian Horton, ESPN BET’s senior director of North American trading. “It’s been largely one-way traffic on Green Bay, with over 80% of spread tickets and 90% of handle to cover -6.5 on the road. Parsons to record a sack is currently our third most-bet player prop (excluding Anytime TDs) by total handle.”
That seems to be the trend across the industry. BetMGM reported on Friday that 86% of the tickets and 88% of the money have come in on the Packers to win by at least a touchdown.
“All eyes are on Sunday night as the Packers roll into Dallas for Micah Parsons' return, and the public is all over Green Bay,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said.
The Packers are looking to bounce back from a last-second loss to the Browns last Sunday, while the Cowboys got smoked by the Bears in Week 3. Bettors at DraftKings are showing a little more love to Dallas, but not by much. The Packers are still getting over 75% of the bets and over 65% of the handle.
Early risers
While Packers-Cowboys will get plenty of attention later in the day, bettors will wake up to the first European NFL game of the year before hammering a few early and late-window favorites.
“Sunday morning of Week 4 kicks off with a trip across the pond, and bettors are backing the Vikings to handle business in Dublin against the Steelers,” Cipollini said. “(The) Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos are also popular picks for the public this week."
The Vikings are the third most-bet team by wagers and are getting 71% of the bets and 74% of the money. DraftKings has seen a split with Minnesota’s 61% of tickets to Pittsburgh’s 59% handle. The Steelers (+120) are the most popular moneyline underdogs at BetMGM.
No surprise
The Chargers are the most-bet team at both BetMGM and ESPN BET. The undefeated AFC Los Angeles squad is giving less than a touchdown to a Giants team that’s winless and going away from Russell Wilson at quarterback, so it’s no surprise that over 80% of the money at three sportsbooks is backing the favorite.
“The Chargers have been a popular pick as well this week, with the most tickets to win outright (-300 ML) and to cover (-6.5) against the Giants and rookie QB Jaxson Dart,” Horton said.
The Bills are the biggest favorites of the young season, sitting on a 15.5-point spread against the winless Saints and getting 81% of the money at DraftKings and 80% of the tickets at ESPN BET.
“The Bills have the biggest spread of the NFL season thus far, but bettors haven’t been afraid to lay two touchdowns, as Buffalo (opened -14.5, now –15.5) is our second most-bet spread by tickets, and third-most bet by handle,” Horton said.
The other double-digit favorite is getting bettors' love as well. Detroit (-10.5) is getting 90% of the money at ESPN BET and over 60% of the handle at BetMGM and DraftKings.
| Week 4 Games | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | ESPN BET Splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings-Steelers | MIN 61% bets PIT 59% money |
MIN 71% bets MIN 74% money |
MIN 54% bets MIN 68% money |
| Chargers-Giants | LAC 83% bets LAC 91% money |
LAC 84% bets LAC 88% money |
LAC 84% bets LAC 86% money |
| Browns-Lions | DET 53% bets DET 66% money |
DET 70% bets DET 62% money |
DET 79% bets DET 90% money |
|
Eagles-Buccaneers |
PHI 51% bets PHI 83% money |
TB 59% bets TB 56% money |
TB 54% bets TB 68% money |
| Saints-Bills | BUF 72% bets BUF 81% money |
BUF 56% bets NO 51% money |
BUF 82% bets BUF 60% money |
| Falcons-Commanders | WSH 69% bets ATL 72% money |
WSH 80% bets WSH 70% money |
WSH 76% bets WSH 58% money |
| Texans-Titans | TEN 54% bets HOU 57% money |
TEN 51% bets HOU 61% money |
TEN 54% bets HOU 58% money |
| Patriots-Panthers | CAR 57% bets NE 76% money |
NE 52% bets CAR 50% money |
CAR 61% bets NE 70% money |
| Colts-Rams | IND 54% bets IND 74% money |
LAR 64% bets LAR 78% money |
IND 53% bets LAR 70% money |
| Jaguars-49ers | JAX 53% bets JAX 66% money |
SF 51% bets SF 56% money |
JAX 68% bets SF 50% money |
| Ravens-Chiefs | BAL 69% bets BAL 81% money |
BAL 71% bets BAL 81% money |
BAL 64% bets BAL 57% money |
| Bears-Raiders | CHI 72% bets CHI 59% money |
CHI 65% bets LV 50% money |
CHI 73% bets CHI 78% money |
| Packers-Cowboys | GB 76% bets GB 66% money |
GB 84% bets GB 88% money |
GB 84% bets GB 92% money |
| Jets-Dolphins | MIA 53% bets MIA 58% money |
MIA 59% bets MIA 74% money |
MIA 56% bets MIA 57% money |
| Bengals-Broncos | DEN 67% bets DEN 63% money |
DEN 64% bets DEN 82% money |
DEN 74% bets DEN 76% money |
DMV pipeline
The Commanders and Ravens are other popular favorites this week. Washington looked good last week without Jayden Daniels, while the Falcons put up a goose egg on the scoreboard. Bettors are laying the one point with the more trusted team, as the Commanders are getting 80% of the money and 70% of the tickets at BetMGM.
Bettors still aren’t ready to back the Chiefs in a big game. Baltimore is getting the majority of the tickets and money in a high-profile game that will likely take the heaviest action in Sunday’s late-game window.
Popular totals
Eagles-Buccaneers over 44 is the most popular totals play by tickets at BetMGM. Titans-Texans under 38.5 is second, followed by over 49.5 in Colts-Rams. Browns-Lions is the second most-bet under this week.
Vikings-Steelers over 40.5 at a neutral site is getting the second-most action at ESPN BET, which has seen 67% of the money come in on a higher scoring Sunday morning game. Eagles-Bucs over, the most-bet total, is getting 85% of the tickets and 75% of the money. Overs in Saints-Bills, Ravens-Chiefs, and Browns-Lions are also quite popular at ESPN BET.
Prop action
The most popular player prop at BetMGM in Week 4 is Omarion Hampton over 65.5 yards (-115), which is not surprising considering fellow running back Najee Harris is out with an injury. Steelers rusher Jaylen Warren is second with over 21.5 receiving yards at -140.
ESPN BET reported the two biggest player props are Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert to throw for 250+ yards and Chicago’s Caleb Williams to go over 250 passing and rushing yards.
The most-bet anytime touchdown scorer at BetMGM this week is Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown at +600, followed by teammate Jahmyr Gibbs at +360. Vikings running back Jordan Mason is getting the most first touchdown scorer tickets.
