Indiana and its fans weren’t the only ones celebrating the program's national championship win in South Florida on Monday night.
Key Takeaways
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A Miami win would’ve topped the 49ers-Lions game from 2024 as Hard Rock Bet's worst single-event payout.
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Miami had a chance late to take a lead.
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More than 80% of the moneyline handle backed the home-state team.
Hard Rock Bet, the Sunshine State’s only legal sportsbook, avoided a disastrous outcome with Miami coming up short, 27-21. A win for the home-state Hurricanes would’ve led to the largest single-day payout in Hard Rock Bet’s history.
The Seminole Tribe-owned sports betting operator said on Monday before the College Football Playoff final that “stakes for the sportsbook are uniquely high ... due to significant lopsided action on the underdog and outstanding championship futures.”
Hard Rock Bet, which didn’t release specific figures, said the reverse outcome would’ve topped 49ers-Lions from Dec. 30, 2024, as the biggest single-event loss for the company.
“An underdog, the biggest game of the year, and the most polarizing team in Florida - all playing out in our backyard,” Neil Walsh, SVP of sportsbook at Hard Rock Bet, said before the game. “Love them or hate them, The U has created a perfect storm that’s driving historic engagement on our platform and pushing college sports to levels we’ve never seen.”
Sportsbooks around the U.S.’ other 39 legal sports betting states braced for potentially the most-bet college game ever. Hard Rock Bet said the national championship was on track for a 60% year-over-year action increase, and the operator told Covers on Tuesday that the contest became the third-highest handle event in Hard Rock Bet's history, behind only Super Bowl LIX and Super Bowl LVIII.
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Close call
The Hurricanes had a late chance to win the game, beginning a drive down six points at the Indiana 35 with 1:42 to play. Miami crossed midfield with about a minute to go, but the Hoosiers' defense picked off quarterback Carson Beck at Indiana's 6-yard line to seal the championship and allow Hard Rock Bet executives to breathe a sigh of relief.
“This was the greatest single-outcome liability we’ve ever faced and one that will stand among the most significant moments in our history,” Walsh said Tuesday. “We’re proud to have delivered an industry-leading experience on the biggest stage – and credit to Miami for coming so close. We look forward to paying out their loyal fans in Florida when ‘The U’ captures its next national championship.”
Miami had significant odds to win the national title, running at least as long as +3,000 at some sportsbooks, and the Hurricanes stayed above +1,000 for much of the season. After just slipping into the CFP as the 10-seed over Notre Dame, they went on a wild run, beating Texas A&M, Ohio State, and Ole Miss to reach the championship game in their own stadium.
Heavy backing
The Hurricanes playing in their home state certainly helped drive betting even more leading up to the game, and with Hard Rock Bet being the only betting option available to visitors and residents, it put a historic liability on the sportsbook.
The operator reported roughly three hours before kickoff that 81% of the moneyline handle was on Miami at +250. The spread wagering was pretty split, with bettors giving Indiana (-7.5) a slight lean. The over 46.5, which hit during a 24-point fourth quarter, was getting 79% of the money.
Combine that with a Miami outright win, and a really bad day could’ve ensued for Hard Rock Bet.
