Could Monday night’s College Football Playoff National Championship be the most-bet game of all time? One U.S. online sportsbook director thinks so.
Key Takeaways
- There are now 39 U.S. states with legal sports betting and a bevy of prediction markets that weren’t offering sports contracts this time last year.
- Bettors like Indiana against the spread, though moneyline bets are much closer.
- Fernando Mendoza is dominating player prop markets.
DraftKings’ Johnny Avello recently told Covers that with sports betting now legal in Missouri, bringing the total U.S. states with wagering to 39, we could see some history made when No. 10 Miami takes on No. 1 Indiana (-7.5).
“This is the final game on a Monday night - this should be a heavily bet game, maybe one of the more heavily bet college games on our network,” Avello said. “I say that because there are more (legal sports betting) jurisdictions involved, a bigger revenue base, customer base, overall. It could be one of the tops of all time.”
Add in the rise of prediction market platforms like Kalshi, DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, and Polymarket, and the amount of money wagered and traded in all 50 U.S. states could easily surpass any other college football game.
There are major storylines on both sides in a standalone game right after a major NFL weekend, and the bets, including six-figure ones, will be flowing throughout the day, setting up a huge handle for one of the few football games left this season.
“We have seen a 50K wager on the under 47 but have not seen any other (high-figure) wagers to this point,” said Joey Feazel, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football. “Would expect to see some on Monday, closer to kickoff.”
| National Championship | DraftKings Splits | BetMGM Splits | theScore Bet Splits |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Indiana spread (-7.5/8.5) | IND 69% bets IND 68% handle |
IND 76% bets IND 79% handle |
IND 72% bets IND 79% handle |
| Moneyline wagers | IND 65% bets MIA 50% handle |
MIA 72% bets MIA 54% handle |
IND 72% bets IND 81% handle |
| Total 47.5 | Over 74% bets Over 59% handle |
Over 79% bets Under 53% handle |
Over 81% bets Over 75% handle |
Backing the Hoosiers
It’s pretty clear where the public is going with the 7.5-point spread, even though much of the wagering will take place Monday. Indiana, which has put together a dream undefeated season after decades of irrelevance in the sport, is receiving the bulk of the action for Miami vs. Indiana picks.
The Hoosiers, who trounced Alabama and Oregon in their previous two CFP showdowns, are getting at least 70% of the bets as the favorite at three major sportsbooks.
Indiana is getting as much as 79% of the handle at BetMGM and theScore Bet, with DraftKings reporting 68% of the money coming in on the Hoosiers. Avello said much of the early action was focused on Indiana, but there was some Miami money flowing in late last week, which brought the spread down to 7.5.
However, by Monday afternoon, the line at DraftKings returned to 8.5.
Market madness
Moneyline bettors are taking their shots with odds of +250 or higher. DraftKings has seen a dead-even split on outright winner money, while Indiana is still taking more action. BetMGM has even seen a slight lean toward the Hurricanes in the game’s moneyline market.
With a total of 47.5 to 48.5, the over is the path most bettors are taking, as that side is getting over 70% of bets at all three operators. BetMGM has seen more money come in on the under 47.5, though.
BetMGM reported that Fernando Mendoza is dominating the player prop markets. The Indiana quarterback’s under 15.5 rushing yards, over 223.5 passing yards, and over 1.5 passing touchdowns are the three most popular wagers. Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt is the most-bet anytime touchdown scorer (-115) and the most popular player in the first touchdown market (+550).
