Betting favorites did plenty of damage during the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, but there were enough major upsets sprinkled in to keep March Madness' early action from becoming a bloodbath for sportsbooks.
Key Takeaways
- NCAA Tournament favorites went on a 22-game winning streak over the weekend.
- High Point, Texas, and Iowa scored the biggest outright upsets.
- Michigan is now the favorite to win it all and is laying the largest amount of points in the Sweet 16.
Similar to last year’s Big Dance, teams laying the points went a combined 29-19 against the spread from Thursday through Sunday, with favorites winning 37 games outright. All but one No. 1 seed advanced, while every 2-seed made it to the Sweet 16.
"It was a chalky opening weekend in the NCAA Tournament with favorites winning 22 straight games from Thursday to Saturday,” BetMGM senior trader Michael Ranftle said. “The sportsbook will be looking for a few upsets in the Sweet 16.”
NCAA Tournament betting update
— John Ewing (@johnewing) March 23, 2026
Favorites: 40-12 SU, -1.1 units
▪️ Thursday: 10-6 SU
▪️ Friday: 16-0 SU
▪️ Saturday: 6-2 SU
▪️ Sunday: 7-1 SU
Favorites: 30-22 (58%) ATS
▪️ Favorites of 6+ pts: 19-11 (63%) ATS
▪️ Best team ATS: Texas 3-0 ATS
▪️ Worst teams: Gonzaga/Vandy/UCLA/UVA…
For U.S. sports betting operators, at least there were a few of those upsets Thursday, as favorites went 6-10 ATS. Their 10-6 straight-up record, however, helped parlay bettors who weren’t on No. 5 Wisconsin, the biggest favorite (-10.5) to lose outright in the first two days, in an 83-82 defeat to No. 12 High Point.
Things took an even chalkier turn Friday when first-round favorites went 12-4 against the number and a perfect 16-0 on the bracket. That trend continued early into Saturday when No. 1 Duke, No. 1 Michigan, No. 3 Michigan State, and No. 2 Houston all rolled big to start the day.
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Weekend warriors
No. 11 Texas finally ended the run with an outright upset as a 6-point underdog, and No. 4 Nebraska held on after No. 5 Vanderbilt had a last-second shot rim out, but No. 3 Illinois and No. 4 Arkansas moved on to wrap up Saturday.
Sunday opened with two favorite covers - No. 2 Purdue and No. 2 Iowa State - before No. 4 Kansas got under the number in a two-point loss to No. 5 St. John’s. Florida, the No. 1 seed in the South and the reigning champion, suffered the biggest upset of the tournament, losing to 8-seed Iowa on a late 3-pointer.
No. 1 Arizona and No. 2 UConn covered and won by double digits to push favorites to 5-3 against the spread and straight up after No. 4 Alabama’s 90-65 win as a slight underdog to No. 5 Texas Tech.
Peek into future
The Gators certainly helped sportsbooks fend off parlays and give operators one of their biggest wins of the weekend, as 78% of the spread handle and over 70% of the wagers (and 92% of the moneyline bets) at BetMGM were on Florida.
However, the first fallen No. 1 seed wasn’t one of the operator’s three biggest liabilities in the futures market. Florida was getting 7.3% of the national championship winner market’s bets and 9.8% of the handle, with odds of +650 entering the tourney.
The Gators were +750 at theScore Bet heading into Sunday’s game and the only team among the operator’s top 10 in pre-first-round odds to get knocked out.
For BetMGM, Miami (Ohio) was the biggest liability in the futures market, but the MAC school was eliminated Friday by Tennessee.
“On the futures book, St. John's and Arkansas are the biggest remaining liabilities to cut down the nets, while all the 1-seeds are positive outcomes,” Ranftle said.
Move over Duke
The Blue Devils had the shortest odds to win it all at BetMGM and theScore Bet going into last Thursday, but Michigan emerged as the +300 favorite after the weekend.
At BetMGM, Duke is now +400, behind Arizona (+350), which has taken a market-high 10.7% of the bets and 18.1% of the handle. Duke has seen the most money of any team at theScore Bet, but Arizona has taken more tickets.
St. John’s is tied with Iowa State for the lowest percentage of handle and wagers, but the Red Storm entered the tourney with odds of +6,600 to win it all. That’s down to +2,500 at theScore Bet.
How sweet it is
| Sweet 16 game (BetMGM) | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue (Thurs.) | Texas +7.5 (-110) Purdue -7.5 (-110) |
Texas +260 Purdue -325 |
Over 148.5 (-110) Under 148.5 (-110) |
| No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska (Thurs.) | Iowa +1.5 (-110) Nebraska -1.5 (-110) |
Iowa +110 Nebraska -135 |
Over 133.5 (-110) Under 133.5 (-110) |
| No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona (Thurs.) | Arkansas +8.5 (-115) Arizona -8.5 (-105) |
Arkansas +280 Arizona -350 |
Over 167.5 (-110) Under 167.5 (-110) |
| No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston (Thurs.) | Illinois +3.5 (-110) Houston -3.5 (-110) |
Illinois +135 Houston -165 |
Over 139.5 (-115) Under 139.5 (-105) |
| No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke (Fri.) | St. John’s +6.5 (-110) Duke -6.5 (-110) |
St. John’s +230 Duke -285 |
Over 142.5 (-105) Under 142.5 (-115) |
| No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (Fri.) | Alabama +10.5 (-115) Michigan -10.5 (-105) |
Alabama +375 Michigan -500 |
Over 174.5 (-110) Under 174.5 (-110) |
| No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn (Fri.) | Michigan State +1.5 (-102) UConn -1.5 (-118) |
Michigan State +110 UConn -135 |
Over 136.5 (-110) Under 136.5 (-110) |
| No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State (Fri.) | Tennessee +4.5 (-115) Iowa State -4.5 (-105) |
Tennessee +156 Iowa State -190 |
Over 138.5 (-110) Under 138.5 (-110) |
Bettors now turn their attention to the Sweet 16 where every higher seed is favored. Michigan is the only team laying double digits and the largest moneyline at -500. Duke and Arizona have spreads under nine points.
Texas is the only team remaining that has been an underdog in each game, going back to the First Four contest in Dayton against N.C. State, which was a slight favorite. Michigan State-UConn and Nebraska-Iowa have the lowest spreads.
The highest total for the Sweet 16 games belongs to Alabama-Michigan at 174.5 points, followed by Arkansas-Arizona at 167.5 points. Four games have a point total under 140, with the lowest being Iowa-Nebraska.
