March Madness fans, rejoice: You're 63 correct choices away from becoming an instant billionaire.
Prediction market giant Kalshi is offering people the opportunity to win a billion-dollar prize by submitting the perfect NCAA men's basketball tournament bracket.
Key Takeaways
- The odds of going 63-0 with your March Madness picks: greater than 1:9.2 quintillion.
- Kalshi's billion-dollar contest comes 13 years after media mogul Warren Buffett offered a similar prize for the perfect bracket.
- The highest-scoring entry in Kalshi's free-to-play contest will earn $1 million, with another $1 million going to charity.
The free Kalshi bracket contest is limited to one entry per person (users based in New York and Florida and those located outside the U.S. are prohibited), with the $1 billion jackpot covered by SIG Parametrics, LLC. Entrants need to sign up with Kalshi but don't have to deposit or make a trade, and age verification is required. Brackets can be created either on the app or on the web.
The potential ten-digit payday is sure to make waves ahead of one of the most interactive events in the sporting calendar, with millions of North Americans taking part in March Madness bracket pools with friends, family and co-workers. But before you start shopping for seaside mansions, consider that, according to University of Illinois graduate professor Arash Khatibi, you're more likely to see a professional bowler record 85 consecutive strikes.
According to a recent NCAA article on the topic, assuming you treat every game as a true coin flip, the odds of nailing all 63 tournament matchups is 1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808. (That's what 9.2 quintillion looks like.)
Georgia Tech professor Joel Sokol told the NCAA that even with a refined model that makes successful picks 75% of the time, the odds of creating a flawless bracket fall somewhere between 1 in 10 million and 1 in 40 million.
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Buffett did it first
This isn't the first time a billion-dollar prize has been dangled in front of the March Madness masses.
Announcing proudly that "you read that right ... that billion, with a B," Quicken Loans Inc. and Buffett-owned Berkshire Hathaway joined forces ahead of the 2014 NCAA men's tournament to offer one billion dollars to anyone who could go 63-for-63.
The prize, broken down into 40 instalments of $25 million each (or a $500 million lump sum for the chronically impatient), wasn't close to being claimed. Eventually, Buffett scaled back the promotion and offered $1 million to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who could go 30-for-32 in opening-round games; one lucky soul finally won the prize in 2025 after nailing 31 of 32 picks.
Who wants to be a millionaire?
While the odds of someone actually winning Kalshi's perfect bracket contest is virtually impossible – no one has publicly made more than 49 straight correct picks to start the tournament – some lucky participant will take home life-changing money.
The prediction market platform is offering a $1 million prize to the player with the highest score, while donating an additional $1 million to the charity of the winner's choosing.
Kalshi has already seen plenty of action on its NCAA men's basketball offerings, with the championship market having already drawn more than $50 million in trading volume.
