Team USA is once again favored to win the World Baseball Classic ahead of Friday’s quarterfinal matchup with Canada.
USA had fallen behind the Dominican Republic in WBC odds after its shocking loss to Italy in the Group Stage, which jeopardized its spot in the bracket.
Key Takeaways
- USA has a 41.7% implied chance to win the WBC.
- Shohei Ohtani leads all players in MVP odds at +500.
- 85% of bettors with a moneyline ticket at FanDuel picked Canada to beat the U.S.
The USA already lost once as a huge favorite in this tournament, falling to Italy despite being as low as a -1300 favorite. The Red, White and Blue only made it out of the group stage and into the bracket because Italy beat Mexico on the final day of group play, giving them the Group B runner-up position.
Friday night’s matchup with Canada sees the USA enter as about a -800 favorite. Approaching the game, 83% of bets and 95% of the handle in the moneyline market is on the USA, according to BetMGM insights shared with Covers.
Despite laying a sizable 4.5 runs, 55% of tickets and 57% of the pot is also on the USA to cover the spread.
FanDuel’s insights told a different story. While 60% of the handle is backing the U.S. to win, 85% of wagers are on Canada to knock off the tournament favorites.
While bettors at both sportsbooks might not see the overall matchup evenly, they are unified in their vision for the standout performers.
FanDuel reported that Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Roman Anthony are the most popular picks to hit a home run in the quarterfinal matchup. BetMGM also had Judge (+175) and Schwarber (+240) as their two most popular picks, followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. (+350), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+350), and Bryce Harper (+350).
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Public backs USA in WBC
According to BetMGM, Team USA opened with +140 odds to win the World Baseball Classic. They are down to +125 before Friday’s showdown.
More than a third of bets, 37.8%, and 51.2% of money wagered in the WBC futures market is on the USA to win.
The Dominican Republic is down from +400 at opening to +240. It has 26.7% of tickets and 25.2% of the handle, both of which rank second in their respective markets.
Japan, which is up from +300 to +375, has 18% of wagers and 12.8% of the pot. Venezuela is next in odds at +900, but its 2.7% of wagers and 2.4% of the handle are both behind Italy (+2000), which has 5.3% of tickets and 4.3% of money.
Puerto Rico (+1800) has 2.6% of bets and 0.8% of the handle. Canada (+5000) and Korea (+8000) both have less than 2% of tickets and money.
Over at FanDuel, the U.S. is responsible for the most bets (35%) and the highest handle (43%). The Dominican Republic is next at 29% and 37%, followed by Japan at 15% and 12%, respectively.
WBC MVP odds
While sportsbooks and bettors both believe that Japan will not win the WBC, two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani is the public’s pick to win WBC MVP. BetMGM has the 2023 WBC MVP at +500 with 16.8% of tickets and 17.6% of the handle.
Americans Aaron Judge (+600) and Bobby Witt Jr. (+1600) are second and third in terms of popularity with bettors. Judge has 11.3% of bets and 14.9% of the pot, while Witt Jr. has 9.9% of wagers and a 7.7% share of the handle.
Juan Soto (+1400), Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1400), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1800) are the only other individuals with odds shorter than +2000.
