Traders on prediction market Kalshi are now assigning Zohran Mamdani an 84% probability of winning New York City's upcoming mayoral election as of Tuesday morning. The update follows the unexpected exit of Mayor Eric Adams from the race.
Key Takeaways
- Kalshi is giving Mamdani an 84% chance of becoming NYC mayor after Adams' withdrawal.
- Andrew Cuomo trails with a 16% probability; Curtis Sliwa holds just 2%.
- Roughly $28 million has been wagered on the New York mayoral market.
The market, which has drawn just over $28 million in wagers, puts former governor Andrew Cuomo at 16% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 2%. Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, has built his campaign around policies such as free buses, rent freezes, and the establishment of city-owned grocery stores.
The shift came swiftly after Adams announced he would not pursue re-election, citing difficulties raising sufficient funds to run a serious campaign. That withdrawal appears to have consolidated support for Mamdani, with bettors increasingly confident in his path to victory.
Kalshi overtakes Polymarket, solidifying market leadership
Kalshi solidified its leadership of the prediction market arena by dominating Polymarket by volume of trades and worldwide market share. Between Sept. 11-17, Kalshi captured 62% of the combined on-chain volume, surpassing Polymarket's 37%.
In August, Kalshi recorded $875 million in trading volume, behind Polymarket's $1 billion, which illustrates Kalshi's rapid ascent and trajectory. The network has also made strides through grants and partnerships with Web3 platforms to achieve rapid gains in on-chain integration.
Kalshi's strategy is based heavily on U.S. regulation compliance to make it easier for domestic users to access. Coupled with its expansion in sports and events markets, the firm is converting regulatory legitimacy into a competitive advantage.
Mamdani skeptical of NYC casinos
As his front-runner status solidifies via prediction markets, Mamdani's stance on casinos in New York City has drawn attention. At a rally organized by the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council, which backs three prospective casinos, Mamdani responded with measured reluctance when asked whether he would support casino development in the city.
He expressed skepticism, noting potential financial consequences, and declined to offer an explicit endorsement of new casinos in the five boroughs.
Though he opposes casinos in principle, Mamdani has stated he will not actively attempt to block them, acknowledging that city executive power over casino licensing is limited. The state's Gaming Facility Location Board is expected by year's end to award three licenses among eight bids across downstate locations.
Mamdani's stance is one of strategic compromise, indicating he is cautious of potential critics while defying no-licence confrontation to casino-supportive groups. This delicate stance could allow him to retain alliances without going on a pro-casino record.
