A former Super Bowl co-favorite’s odds have nearly doubled after a pivotal Week 4 loss and a concerning injury.
Key Takeaways
- Baltimore has fallen to +1,000 to win the Super Bowl after a 1-3 start.
- The Chiefs are gaining bettors’ trust following back-to-back wins.
- Josh Allen is a strong favorite to win MVP.
The 1-3 Ravens were once right there with the Buffalo Bills atop the NFL championship market, but following a 37-20 defeat to the Chiefs last Sunday, Baltimore has slipped from +550 to +1,000 in BetMGM’s Super Bowl winner betting.
Not only was it a disheartening loss to an AFC contender, but quarterback Lamar Jackson suffered a hamstring injury that has clouded his status for the Week 5 game against the 1-3 Texans, who are currently just 3-point underdogs at Baltimore.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s win changed the team’s Super Bowl chances with bettors.
“After starting 0-2, the Chiefs' odds to win the Super Bowl drifted to +1,400,” BetMGM senior trader Christian Cipollini said. “Kansas City has since won their last two games with a dominant victory over the Ravens. The Chiefs are the most-bet team by handle to win the Super Bowl since the end of Week 2.”
The Chiefs are listed fifth at BetMGM with odds of +950, and they’re getting 7.1% of both the handle and tickets. ESPN BET said it shortened Kansas City’s odds to +1,000 after the win over the Ravens, who went from +550 to +750.
Shifting market
The Bills strengthened their hold as the Super Bowl winner favorites at BetMGM, moving from +425 to +375 after their Week 4 win over the Saints. Buffalo has seen the most action in the market, getting 10.7% of the bets and 13.5% of the handle.
ESPN BET has the Bills favored at +425, and the operator moved the Eagles to from +700 to +550, second-best odds, after their 31-25 win over the Buccaneers. The Packers are third, going from +700 to +600 following a 40-40 tie with the Cowboys on Sunday night.
The Lions’ Super Bowl winner odds shortened from +1,000 to +800 at BetMGM, fourth-highest in the market. Detroit is getting 10.6% of the tickets and 10.9% of the money, both second behind the Bills.
The Joe Burrow-less Bengals have the highest percentage of the market’s money and the biggest shift in odds this week. Following Monday night’s 28-3 loss to the Broncos, Cincinnati went from +12,500 to +30,000. The Panthers and Cardinals also saw their Super Bowl odds double after Week 4.
Awards movement
As expected, Week 4 altered Jackson’s MVP push. He fell from +275 entering last Sunday to +800 at ESPN BET. BetMGM dropped Jackson from second place with odds of +300 to third behind Josh Allen and Justin Herbert at +650. Allen is an incredible +130 favorite to win the award at ESPN BET.
The Bills quarterback won it last year, and he has seen 5.2% of the tickets and 8.6% of the handle at BetMGM. Burrow has more than double the market’s money compared to Allen, but the Bengals QB is out for the season with a toe injury and is no longer on the board.
ESPN BET moved Chiefs signal-caller Patrick Mahomes from eighth to fourth, shortening his odds from +2,500 to +900. Packers QB Jordan Love has also changed from +1,600 to +1,400, ahead of Eagles passer Jalen Hurts at +1,800.
Two other award markets shifted after Week 4 at ESPN BET. In the Offensive Player of the Year odds, Rams receiver Puka Nacua became a +275 favorite to win the honor, bumping Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+450) to second. Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson moved into a tie with Green Bay’s Micah Parsons as favorites for Defensive Player of the Year. Both have odds of +325, with Cleveland’s Myles Garrett close at +350.
