Quarterbacks Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Carson Beck (Miami) are in a dead heat in the race for the Heisman entering Week 8 of the college football season.
Simpson and Beck are tied at +350 at bet365 sportsbook, while Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza is close behind at +500.
Key Takeaways
- Non-quarterbacks haven’t won consecutive Heismans since 1997-99.
- Simpson and Mendoza opened at +5500 and +2000, respectively.
- The shortest pre-season Heisman favorite that is still in the race is Jeremiah Smith Jr. (+1400).
According to BetMGM, Simpson has gained the most ground in the race, recovering from +5500 (1.8% implied chance) at opening to his current +350 (22.2% chance). Beck has also made substantial headway, albeit not as much as Simpson, moving from +2000 (4.8% chance) to draw level at +350.
IU’s Mendoza, whose name is familiar in the betting world after he apologized for failing to cover the spread in September, also moved from +5500 to +550 (15.4% chance).
There isn’t another candidate on the board with odds shorter than +1400. Those odds belong to Ohio State wideout Jeremiah Smith Jr., who has seen very little movement since opening at +1300. His teammate and QB, Julian Sayin, is just behind at +1500.
Oregon’s Dante Moore was in contention for the Heisman lead a couple of weeks ago. However, after going 21/34 for 186 yards, a touchdown, and two interceptions in a loss to Indiana on Saturday, he is now at +1700.
A pair of SEC quarterbacks, Marcel Reed and Trinidad Chambliss, are the only others with odds of +2000 or shorter.
Texas A&M’s Reed is down from +4000, while Ole Miss’ Chambliss is at +2000 after starting the year off the board. Both will face ranked conference opponents in two of their next three contests.
Early favorites continue to fall
Pre-season Heisman odds have been wildly misrepresentative of the future award winner for years. The oddsmakers haven’t correctly favored the eventual Heisman winner since they installed Oregon’s Marcus Mariota as the favorite in 2014.
This year’s pre-season favorites, Garrett Nussmeier and Arch Manning, fell victim to the negative trend. Nussmeier has fallen to +4000, while Manning is down to +8000.
Oklahoma’s John Mateer also hasn’t had the best time, falling from +2500 at opening to +4000 after he threw three interceptions and zero touchdowns in a loss to Texas over the weekend.
Several other early contenders, such as LaNorris Sellers and Bryce Underwood, are effectively out of the race at +8000 and +10000, respectively.
Georgia’s Gunner Stockton had trended to about +1300, but he’s back up to +2500 at BetMGM.
Much the opposite, Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar is +3000 after starting off the board. Georgia Tech’s Haynes King followed a similar trajectory, making headway from +9000 at opening to his current mark of +3500.
Notre Dame freshman CJ Carr had appeared to drop out of the race a month into the season after he was given odds around +9000. He’s back in the race, albeit some distance behind, at +3000 after opening at +5000.
Carr and the Irish will take on fellow competitor Jayden Maiava, from USC, on Saturday. The latter has climbed from +6000 to +2200 entering the contest.
National Championship odds take hold
Amid all of the constant change in Heisman odds, the odds to win the college football championship still favor last year’s winners, Ohio State. The Buckeyes are +350, beating out second-place Alabama (+600) for the distinction.
Penn State, LSU, Texas, and Clemson, all of whom rank 2-5 in terms of tickets at BetMGM, range from +1600 to +30000 in national championship odds.
Miami (+800) and Indiana (+900) are the only other teams under +1000.
