Norwegian officials are investigating potential insider trading on the prediction market Polymarket. Just hours before the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, three Polymarket accounts placed bets on the ultimate winner, pointing to a potential leak.
Key Takeaways
- Just before the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, three Polymarket accounts wagered on the eventual winner.
- Polymarket does not currently operate in the U.S., but is expecting to relaunch in the very near future.
- This potential breach highlights the regulatory challenges facing the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) relative to prediction markets.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize went to Maria Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader. Going into the announcement, Machado wasn’t considered a frontrunner in the Nobel Peace Prize odds. But roughly 10 hours before the announcement – and just a few days after the Nobel Committee’s decision – Machado’s Polymarket odds to win shot up from roughly 3.6% to more than 70%, driven by wagers from just a few accounts.
Bloomberg picked up the story after it was reported by the Norwegian newspapers Aftenposten and Finansavisen. Apparently three Polymarket accounts made roughly $90,000 in combined profits from their last-minute wagers.
Bloomberg identified one trader with the username dirtycup, who opened their Polymarket account just this month and hadn’t bet on any markets prior to their Nobel Peace Prize wager.
The officials in charge of awarding the Nobel Peace Prize are investing a potential information leak.
“We take this very seriously,” Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute Kristian Berg Harpviken said. “It seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information. We will look closely at this to find out what has happened. Secrecy for us is very important.”
Polymarket complied with regulators and withdrew from the U.S. market in 2022. The prediction market operator, however, is looking to reenter the U.S. market under the regulatory jurisdiction of the CFTC. In fact, after the Intercontinental Exchange’s recent $2 billion investment in Polymarket, it was assumed its U.S. relaunch was imminent – much to the chagrin of DraftKings and FanDuel investors.
Polymarket’s reentry plans may be temporarily on hold due to the U.S. government shutdown. Although, this recent “anomaly” may give the federal agency pause.
Regulatory challenges
On any given day, Polymarket accepts wagers on hundreds of events. It offers markets in everything from the mayoral election in New York City to which of Taylor Swift’s songs on her latest album will be highest ranked on Billboard. Any number of these events will have incomes known to a few insiders in advance of an announcement, including political appointments, economic data, major league sports trades, etc.
One wonders if the CFTC has the regulatory heft to ensure the integrity of so many markets. At least one former U.S. regulator has her doubts.
In the U.S., there is absolutely no way the CFTC has the capacity to investigate all the aberrant instances of outsized profits on the myriad contracts these prediction markets offer. The agency's capitulation on jurisdiction means essentially it's a Wild West market. https://t.co/c9rnIQLifs
— Amanda Fischer (@amandalfischer) October 10, 2025
Responding to the Nobel Peace Prize prediction market news, Amanda Fischer, former Securities and Exchange Commission chief of staff, posted on social media, “In the U.S., there is absolutely no way the CFTC has the capacity to investigate all the aberrant instances of outsized profits on the myriad contracts these prediction markets offer. The agency's capitulation on jurisdiction means essentially it's a Wild West market.”
