While Spain is still the odds leader to win the FIFA World Cup this summer, France has pulled ahead into second amid a downswing for England.
The Three Lions were second at +500 odds at FanDuel on April 1, but are now +650 with just over one month until soccer's showpiece tournament kicks off.
Key Takeaways
- England began Thomas Tuchel’s tenure on a record-setting run.
- Spain fell back to the pack after Lamine Yamal tore his hamstring.
- France was the pre-tournament favorite at the last World Cup and European Championship.
| FanDuel | Caesars | BetMGM | Hard Rock Bet | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | +430 | +500 | +500 | +450 |
| France | +470 | +450 | +450 | +425 |
| England | +650 | +650 | +650 | +600 |
| Brazil | +750 | +850 | +800 | +700 |
| Argentina | +850 | +850 | +800 | +700 |
| Portugal | +1100 | +1100 | +1000 | +850 |
| Germany | +1100 | +1200 | +1400 | +1100 |
| Netherlands | +1900 | +2200 | +2000 | +1750 |
| Norway | +2200 | +3000 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Belgium | +3000 | +3500 | +3330 | +3000 |
England’s fall boils down to a number of reasons.
One of those is a poor run of form, as they tied with Uruguay, 1-1, and then fell to Japan, 0-1, in home friendlies played at the end of March. That’s despite Thomas Tuchel’s tenure beginning on a record-setting run that saw them win 11 straight competitive games from March-November 2025, after they bowed out in the quarterfinal of the last World Cup against Kylian Mbappe's France.
There are also questions about different positions on their roster, namely in the defense. Manchester City's 21-year-old, Nico O’Reilly, could be called upon to start at left-back, while Tuchel’s former player at Chelsea, Reece James, is dealing with another injury setback.
Amid England’s troubled stretch, France found fire. They beat Brazil, 2-1, and Colombia, 3-1, at the end of March, setting them on a strong path. Several of their best players are also performing extremely well for their clubs, namely Michael Olise and Ryan Cherki, and they were the pre-tournament favorites at the last World Cup and European Championship.
Multiple top sportsbooks have gone so far as to install France as the favorite for the upcoming tournament. However, that goes beyond what is simply in France’s control.
Spain won the 2024 European Championship by beating every team they faced, including France and England in the semifinal and final, respectively. La Roja was widely viewed as the team to beat building up to the World Cup, although that is now in question because of one critically important injury.
Barcelona's 18-year-old left-winger Lamine Yamal suffered a torn hamstring on his left leg on April 22 and was quickly ruled out for the remainder of the season. ESPN’s Doug Greenberg wrote the day after that Spain lengthened from a +450 solo favorite to a +500 co-favorite with France in light of the injury.
The belief is that Yamal will be fit to play in the World Cup when the time comes, although questions over his future sharpness and conditioning remain.
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World Cup odds challengers
Brazil and Argentina are the only other teams with odds shorter than +1000 at all major sportsbooks, with prices for both teams ranging from +700 to +850. Argentina won the last World Cup and Copa America, but its top rivals will be out to ensure they don’t repeat as tournament champs.
Portugal snuck below +1000 at Hard Rock Bet but is the consensus sixth-place challenger on the board. They were eliminated in the quarterfinals of the last World Cup and Euros after losses to Morocco and France, respectively.
Germany is just behind, with odds ranging from +1100 to +1400.
The Netherlands is the leader of the next tier of contenders. They reached the Euro 2024 semifinal despite finishing third in their qualifying group and were knocked out by Argentina in the quarterfinal of the 2022 World Cup.
The two other teams in the top 10 in World Cup odds are Norway and Belgium. The former hasn’t qualified for the tournament since 1998, while the latter was sent packing in the Group Stage in ‘22.
World Cup one month away
The first World Cup match will take place between Mexico and South Africa on June 11, fittingly in Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, Mexico.
It is unclear when the top contenders will face each other in the bracket, assuming they advance out of the group stage. The finishing positions in the groups will determine the teams’ paths to the final and the opponents they will face during the run-up.
