Legendary oddsmaker Johnny Avello doesn’t foresee history repeating itself just one year after all four No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament reached the Final Four.
Key Takeaways
- DraftKings’ Johnny Avello sees massive strength for the 1- and 2-seeds in the first round.
- Bettors are taking their shots at USF over Louisville and Akron over Texas Tech.
- Texas is a small underdog to BYU in Thursday’s game.
“I don't believe all four will get there,” Avello, DraftKings Sportsbook’s director of operations, told Covers on Wednesday. “I think maybe two will get there because it is a difficult path for all of them once you get by the first couple of games.”
Duke, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida are all heavily favored in their first games Thursday and Friday, although the Gators won’t have a spread until their 16th-seed opponent is determined Wednesday night.
But Arizona and Michigan already have spreads above 30 points. Duke’s a 28.5-point favorite at DraftKings, and Florida will likely be around a similar number. Those massive lines are scaring away too many bettors, at least with two of the top seeds.
The Blue Devils are getting 84% of the bets and 65% of the handle against Siena, while the Wildcats have taken 86% of the wagers and 69% of the money as 30.5-point favorites over LIU.
The Wolverines are getting a more modest 51% of the bets as the largest favorite (31.5 points) of any team in the first two days, but Howard, which held off UMBC on Tuesday night in the First Four, is taking 61% of the money.
Avello doesn’t even think there could be magic with the No. 15 seeds this year, with UConn, Iowa State, Purdue, and Houston all favored by at least 20 points.
“The 1s and 2s (seeds) are probably stronger over the 15th and 16th this year than they have been in over the past at least five years,” said Avello, who provided insights into several other Thursday and Friday matchups.
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East Region
Bettors have identified one of their favorite underdogs in the field. No. 6 seed Louisville is getting just 16% of the handle as a 5.5-point favorite at DraftKings over South Florida, which has also taken 67% of the bets.
“We open this game, Louisville, seven-and-a-half, most of the money has been on South Florida,” Avello said. “South Florida’s had a really great season for them. Good finish to the year. Louisville may not be playing their best basketball, but certainly a capable team of doing so.”
Avello said DraftKings opened St. John’s -8.5, but the spread quickly sprinted to 11.5. However, it’s come all the way down to 9.5, with the favorite getting 52% of the handle and 63% of the wager in Friday’s matchup.
Thursday’s action begins with “two really closely matched” 8-9 seed teams in Ohio State and TCU. The Buckeyes opened at -2.5 and rose to -4.5 before the spread came back down to 2.5, with the Horned Frogs getting 55% of the money and OSU taking 57% of the bets.
“I think these two teams open up pretty close to one another, and the bettor thought that the four-and-a-half points was certainly some value, and that has held up so far,” Avello said.
South Region
The 8-9 matchup in this region offers the lowest point totals on the board. Clemson and Iowa aren’t fast-paced teams, as indicated by Friday’s 128.5 total. A slight majority of the bets are on the over, but the under has taken 63% of the bets. Avello said it opened at 131 and was quickly bet down. He doesn’t consider this to be an “extremely low” number and recalls tournament games that didn’t reach 120 points.
“I guess when you look at some of these other games that are in the 60s this year, middle 50s, you know, this does look like a relatively low number, but that's just the style of these two teams,” Avello said.
Avello sees 3-seed Illinois as one of the stronger teams in this tournament, and he wasn’t surprised that the Ilini’s Thursday game against Pennsylvania was one of the biggest line movements from the opener, going from -20.5 to -24.5. However, Penn has seen 54% of the bets and 62% of the handle by Wednesday, while the line has remained at 24.5.
Tournament-experienced McNeese State could be a popular team by the time Thursday rolls around. The 12-seed Cowboys are 11.5-point underdogs to No. 5 seed Vanderbilt and are getting 54% of the spread bets, and they’re also taking 39% of the moneyline handle at +500.
“This is the kind of game that I can almost feel that McNeese State's going to be a play for the bettors taking a shot on a huge moneyline,” Avello said.
West Region
Seeing No. 9 Utah State at -1.5 over No. 8 Villanova might surprise some, but Avello sees the Aggies as a “tremendous” 25-win team, leading DraftKings to make them the opening favorites in the contest. Utah State has taken the majority of the money and bets so far. Avello said this could be a balanced spread by Friday’s game despite the Aggies’ season profile.
“People look at Utah State and say, 'How could Utah State be a favorite over this Villanova team known for winning championships?'” Avello said. “Utah State is a good basketball team, so this should be an interesting one.”
Shortly after 11-seed Texas won a thriller over NC State on Tuesday, Avello opened No. 6 BYU as a 2.5-point favorite. He said it was quickly bet down to 1.5 and has since gone back to 2.5, with BYU getting 85% of the money and 74% of the bets. However, Avello isn’t sure that holds.
“Texas has not had a great season for them as far as wins are concerned, but they certainly have a big following,” Avello said. “Texas will continue to draw money in this one, as this is a Thursday night game later in the day.”
Avello expects No. 2 Purdue, an -8,000 moneyline favorite, to be the “free space on a bingo card” for a lot of parlay players looking for an easy win.
Midwest Region
One of the most popular 12-over-5 upsets, Akron at +7.5 against Texas Tech has drawn 80% of the money and 68% of the bets, while also getting 81% of the moneyline at +270. The Red Raiders haven’t looked as strong since the injury to JT Toppin, and bettors took this line down from the 9.5 opener.
“Not a lot of movement since we got to that seven-and-a-half on Sunday, and not a lot of movement on the total either 156-and-a-half,” Avello said. “But Akron, with their 26 wins, I can see this is another game where the public is on the Akron moneyline, knowing that Texas Tech may have just made it to the tournament, had a fine season, but not a full-strength team.”
There are four SEC teams in this region, including No. 7 Kentucky, which opens Friday as a slight 2.5-point favorite over No. 10 Santa Clara. The Wildcats have not had their typical kind of season, which has led to bettors backing Santa Clara with 58% of the moneyline handle and 61% of the spread money.
“Kentucky’s played some decent games. They played some really poor games. It's not like they're coming into the tournament with a full head of confidence,” Avello said. “ I don't know how high the confidence is for the bettors on Kentucky.”
The percentage of bets on No. 8 Saint Louis versus No. 9 Georgia is dead even at DraftKings, but the 2.5-point favored Bulldogs are getting 65% of the handle. The Billikens are getting 72% of the moneyline handle, though, a trend Avello sees continuing into Friday.
“I know Georgia’s come out of that tough (SEC) conference, but I don't know if they are anything special,” Avello said. “I think they'll have their hands full here, for sure.”
