Prediction market mania is migrating north, albeit sans sports or election betting for the time being.
- Canada is allowing limited prediction markets through approved firms, focusing only on economic, environmental, and financial indicators.
- Strict rules require contracts to last at least 30 days, prohibit leverage, and ban markets tied to sports, elections, or political events.
- Regulators remain cautious, enforcing compliance and signaling that further restrictions or guidance may be introduced as the market develops.
The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO), a national self-regulatory group for the country’s investing industry, issued a bulletin on Thursday clarifying prediction market-related rules for members.
This, the CIRO said, was “in response to growing interest among market participants and investors in prediction markets and event contracts.”
According to the CIRO, two of its Investment Dealer Members (Interactive Brokers Canada and Wealthsimple) have thus far been approved by the regulator to facilitate event contract trading.
Terms and conditions apply
However, these prediction markets are subject to certain terms and conditions imposed by the CIRO, which were developed in consultation with provincial securities regulators.
The terms and conditions set out that the only contracts that can be offered involve “economic forecasts,” such as inflation rates and job numbers, “environment forecasts,” such as average global temperatures, and “financial indicators,” such as S&P 500 futures prices.
All of these contracts must have maturity dates of 30 days or longer, meaning they take a month to resolve at least. No leverage, such as margin accounts, will be allowed for prediction market trading either.
And, last but definitely not least, there will be no election or sports betting. The same might apply for other unwanted types of wagering, too.
“Investment Dealer Members will not offer event contracts based on the outcome of elections, political events, or other events of a political nature such as contracts predicting election results, political party leaders' nominations or referendum results or otherwise offer event contracts based on the outcome of unlawful activities under Canadian federal, provincial or territorial law,” the terms and conditions say.
The clarifications come as Canada has largely avoided the kind of prediction market boom that has unfolded in the U.S. over the past year or so.
That U.S.-based boom has been chiefly driven by the trading of sports event contracts on federally regulated exchanges, an offering that some state gambling regulators contend is just illegal sports wagering.
We must stop the scourge of prediction-market gambling coming to Canada https://t.co/4hj1xBVz54
— The Globe and Mail (@globeandmail) March 26, 2026
However, as the CIRO’s bulletin suggests, Canada has different rules and a different regulatory structure than the U.S.
While most Canadians can still access Polymarket's global site, there are no federally regulated entities approved to offer U.S.-style sports event contracts. Ontario, though, does have one provincially regulated exchange offering sports-related contracts, STX.
Among other hurdles, there are restrictions in Canada on offering short-term “binary options,” and the “yes” or “no” style of betting offered by prediction markets looks to be covered by this.
“We’ve dodged a bullet,” Canadian Gaming Association president and CEO Paul Burns said during a Canada-focused panel at NEXT.io’s New York conference earlier this month.
That doesn’t mean investors and/or sports bettors in Canada aren't interested in prediction markets. And, judging by recent news, firms are trying to meet that demand as best they can.
Still, there is already some anxiety being voiced by Canadians who have seen the insider trading-related concerns and overall wagering expansion in the U.S.
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Don't even go there
For now, though, the more controversial products appear off-limits in Canada, at least through regulated investment firms.
So, while sports and politics are two major offerings from U.S.-regulated prediction markets, and sports-related contracts account for the bulk of trading volume, the CIRO isn't having it yet.
“CIRO emphasizes that certain categories of event contracts remain prohibited and may not be offered, traded, or facilitated by Dealer Members,” the regulator’s bulletin notes. “Notably, Investment Dealer Members may not trade in event contracts based on the outcome of elections, political events, or other events of a political nature such as contracts predicting political party leaders' nominations or referendum results, or otherwise offer event contracts based on the outcome of unlawful activities under Canadian federal, provincial or territorial law.”
Furthermore, the CIRO said it imposed additional restrictions on event contracts, namely that members can only facilitate trading in contracts that mature in 30 days or more.
Any member that wants to offer prediction markets has to write to the CIRO for permission. Members must also use “due diligence” to ensure their prediction markets don’t stray into forbidden territory either, the CIRO said.
The regulator added it has only authorized this “limited set of event contracts” provided they are traded and cleared “through certain U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulated exchanges and clearing houses.”
“CIRO and the (Canadian Securities Administrators) continue to monitor developments with prediction markets and event contracts and intend to issue further guidance which could result in the imposition of further restrictions,” the bulletin notes.
There is no mention of the word "sports" in the bulletin, but The Globe and Mail reported that Wealthsimple won't offer sports-related event contracts. Interactive Brokers, which went live with prediction markets in Canada in 2025, doesn't offer sports-related contracts either.
No sports, please, we're Canadian
A spokesperson for the CIRO declined to expand on what was in the bulletin, saying they “cannot provide interpretive guidance beyond what is published.”
In response to a question about whether additional firms are seeking approval for prediction markets, the CIRO spokesperson said they do not comment “on the regulatory status or approvals of individual firms.”
The Globe reported that Questrade, another online trading platform, plans to offer event contracts as well.
A spokesperson for the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA), the “umbrella organization” of provincial securities regulators, noted prediction markets “may involve products that are considered securities, derivatives or both under Canadian securities and derivatives law.”
“Securities regulators will take enforcement actions where violations of securities or derivatives laws are identified,” they added.
This happened in Ontario last year, when regulators sanctioned Polymarket over its previous business in the province.
A settlement agreement noted that “many of the Contracts offered through Polymarket fell under categories that attract speculation,” including sports and politics.
“Canadians should avoid using platforms that do not comply with Canadian securities and derivatives laws and are not registered with or recognized by a Canadian securities regulator,” the CSA spokesperson added Friday. “To verify whether a prediction market is recognized (or exempted from the recognition requirement) please contact your local securities regulator.”
