Despite recent rows over trade and presidential comments about, well, one country absorbing the other, Canada and the United States have long had similar industries and tastes.
If there’s a trend buzzing about in the U.S., it usually makes its way north of the border at some point. There’s a shared cultural history there; Canadians were just as outraged as Americans over the Game of Thrones finale.
Yet one growing U.S. trend that arguably hasn’t made its way to Canada yet is the rise of prediction markets.
- Prediction markets are expanding in the U.S., but Canada hasn’t adopted them widely because most event-based yes/no contracts are treated as prohibited binary options for retail investors, among other things.
- Companies like Interactive Brokers and offshore platforms such as Polymarket offer limited or gray-area access in Canada, but strict regulations can restrict election and other speculative markets.
- Some Canadians can still access tightly limited “novelty” bets through regulated sportsbooks.
In the U.S., prediction markets are federally regulated exchanges that facilitate wagering on sports, economics, elections, and much more in all 50 states. They’ve become a thing, much to the chagrin of state-level gambling regulators.
However, prediction markets haven’t become a thing in the same way in Canada. And this is despite Canadians being just as interested in betting as Americans.
For example, why isn’t Kalshi, a prediction market operator and recently announced partner to CNN and CNBC, partnering with the CBC as well? Would Canadians just not really get prediction markets?
The short answer is that Canadians do have access to prediction markets, just not in the same way or scope that Americans do.
Canadian prediction markets exist in a legal “grey” zone, presented by online sportsbooks as “novelty” bets, or in a much more restrictive fashion than what Americans are getting from Kalshi, Crypto.com, and others.
Latest Canadian election odds...
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) March 31, 2025
FanDuel (sworn-in government):
-Liberals -174
-Conservatives +126
-Other +7500
bet365 (most seats)
-LPC -150
-CPC +110
-Everyone else +30000 or longer
Polymarket (next PM post-election):
-Carney (LPC) 66%
-Poilievre (CPC) 34%
In April, for example, Interactive Brokers announced it had launched prediction markets in Canada.
“This new product allows Canadian investors to trade directly on the outcomes of events that impact markets, including economic data releases, political decisions, and climate trends,” a press release trumpeted. “Already available to investors in the US, this expansion reflects the growing demand for predictive tools that help investors manage risk in an uncertain global environment.”
Huzzah, right? Well, sure, but there are some caveats.
As noted by IB’s partners in its Canadian prediction market project, law firm Borden Ladner Gervais, what’s on offer has restrictions.
“The offering is subject to certain terms and conditions, including the term of the contract and limitations on the types of underlying events,” BLG said. “For example, Interactive Brokers Canada shall not offer forecast contracts based on the outcome of elections.”
We've got 'prediction markets' at home
Allowing people to bet on U.S. election odds last year was what helped propel prediction markets to prominence. The addition of sports event contracts after the election then helped drive further growth and adoption.
However, to bring its Canadian prediction product to market, Interactive Brokers Canada noted it “engaged in discussions with the members of the Canadian Securities Administrators and the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization.”
This gets to the heart of why operating a prediction market in Canada is so challenging.
In the U.S., prediction markets are places where you go to bet “yes” or “no” on something, such as an NFL team winning a game or a politician winning an election. The choice, you could say, is “binary.”
That word, “binary,” is big for Canadians and Canadian investors/bettors in particular.
“Canadian securities regulators treat most event contracts as binary options, which are prohibited for retail investors,” notes law firm Segev LLP. “This means that prediction market contracts cannot legally be promoted, marketed, or sold to the general public under securities law.”
So offering Canadians a yes/no event contract, as prediction markets do with Americans, can get you into some hot water - which is what happened to Polymarket.
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A binary boycott
In April, a regulatory panel approved a settlement agreement between the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) and the current and former operators of Polymarket. This was due to the latter's "failure to comply with the ban on offering short-term binary options to individual investors in Ontario."
What was Polymarket doing? According to the settlement agreement, between June 16, 2020, and May 26, 2023, the prediction market operator was offering people the "opportunity to ‘bet on your beliefs’ by trading in options with individuals, in Ontario and beyond."
Most of these “event-based options” involved a yes/no or multiple-choice proposition, the settlement said. In other words, binary enough to earn the ire of securities regulators, such as the OSC, which said Polymarket never reached out to it before making itself available to Ontarians.
“Many of the Contracts offered through Polymarket fell under categories that attract speculation, such as politics, sports, crypto, coronavirus, and pop culture,” the settlement agreement added.
Polymarket’s operators were hit with two-year market bans and fines, including an administrative penalty of $200,000. If you go to Polymarket's terms of use right now, you'll see that Ontario is one of its "restricted jurisdictions," along with the U.S., U.K., and North Korea, among others.
Against all odds.
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 3, 2025
Polymarket’s U.S app is now being rolled out to those on the waitlist.
We’re launching with sports — followed by markets on everything. pic.twitter.com/WOoVMszrqc
Now, Ontario is just one Canadian province, albeit a significant one. Polymarket is still accessible in other provinces. It just exists in that “grey” area I previously mentioned, as an offshore prediction market of sorts.
However, it’s worth noting that Polymarket is working to get back in the good graces of regulators. Case in point: It has begun relaunching in the U.S. regulated market.
It's been almost four years since the prediction market settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and agreed to stop serving Americans after “offering off-exchange event-based binary options contracts and (failing) to obtain designation as a designated contract market (DCM) or registration as a swap execution facility (SEF).”
What Canadians need to know is that it’s legally difficult to run a prediction market in the country. Even if you manage it, you’re going to be subject to certain restrictions to which U.S.-based prediction markets aren’t currently subject.
There is another arguable “prediction market” that some Canadians can legally access, which is “novelty” betting offered by regulated sportsbooks.
Using FanDuel Ontario, for instance, I can bet on whether it will snow on Christmas Day in Toronto, whether Taylor Swift's "The Life of a Showgirl" will win Album of the Year, and on who will be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025.
Look what I made me do (sorry)
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) November 14, 2024
FanDuel Offers Taylor Swift Betting Markets Amid Toronto Mayhem https://t.co/1eegsE779P @Covers
Now, your mileage may vary depending on the sportsbook you use. Not all of them will offer a lot of novelty options (or any, perhaps), and it’s worth noting that FanDuel has tight betting limits for its novelty markets. It's not somewhere you can bet $10,000 on an election, as you can with a U.S. prediction market.
Furthermore, Ontario is still the only Canadian province that has authorized private-sector brands like FanDuel to take bets. While Alberta is moving toward an Ontario-like system, it will be months before that launches.
Still, even in British Columbia, the province's only authorized iGaming site, PlayNow, has some novelty betting markets - or “prediction markets,” if you will.
I'll grant you, the above isn’t a comprehensive take on prediction markets in Canada. But if you’re wondering why Canadians are missing out on the kind of prediction market mayhem the U.S. is seeing, this could help explain why.
So where are Canada's prediction markets? The answer: They're there, just not in the way they are in the U.S.
