SAN DIEGO – California tribal leaders remain on track to pursue a statewide online sports betting ballot initiative in 2028. Leaders said they are using the next two years to build a consensus-driven regulatory framework designed to ensure every federally recognized tribe benefits while simultaneously fending off what they described as the industry's most significant threat in decades: federally regulated prediction markets.
- California tribes remain on track to pursue a tribally led statewide online sports betting ballot initiative in 2028, with an emphasis on consensus and ensuring all 109 federally recognized tribes benefit.
- Tribal leaders said California's regulatory model will prioritize equity among tribes and reject licensing structures that leave smaller or non-gaming tribes behind.
- California tribal leaders identified federally regulated prediction markets as the industry's biggest emerging threat, warning sports event contracts are already diverting gaming revenue from tribal operators.
Speaking Thursday during a panel at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States' Summer Meeting in San Diego, representatives from several California tribes said any future sports betting model will remain tribally led, prioritize equity among the state's 109 federally recognized tribes and preserve tribal sovereignty that has underpinned California gaming for nearly four decades.
"We're still very much looking at 2028 as a date that tribes are preparing to move forward with a tribally led initiative for an online sports betting market," said James Siva, chairman of the California Nations Indian Gaming Association (CNIGA).
California sports betting background
The timeline comes nearly six years after California tribes began exploring online sports betting before the COVID-19 pandemic and four years after competing sports betting ballot measures backed separately by tribes and commercial sportsbook operators were overwhelmingly rejected by voters in 2022. Throughout the discussion, tribal leaders repeatedly emphasized that any future proposal would only move forward when polling indicates Californians are prepared to support it.
California law requires a voter-approved ballot measure to legalize new forms of gambling, including online and retail sports betting.
Rather than adopting another state's blueprint, Siva said California has spent years studying models across the country while developing its own framework.
Among the priorities is ensuring all tribes participate economically, including the 73 California tribes that either have no gaming operation or operate limited gaming facilities. California's existing tribal gaming revenue-sharing system already redistributes revenue from larger tribal casinos to smaller and non-gaming tribes, and Siva said that philosophy would extend to online sports betting.
"We've definitely looked at what's transpired in other states," Siva said. "We've really focused on equity amongst tribes ... trying to make sure that no tribe gets left behind as we expand gaming."
He specifically pointed to Arizona as an example of a structure California hopes to avoid, noting that while some tribes benefited, others never received online sportsbook licenses while every major professional sports franchise did.
"That is fundamentally something we would oppose," Siva said.
Arizona, Michigan, and Connecticut are among state regulatory structures where individual tribes partnered with a lone commercial third-party sportsbook operator. This benefited tribes that partnered with larger books but curtailed revenue potential for less lucrative operators.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and several other major commercial books have spent years publicly apologizing for the failed 2022 ballot measure that sought to legalize California sports betting without any involvement of state tribes. A tribal-led opposition campaign helped tank the commercial operators’ sports betting ballot measure, one of the most expensive campaigns in state (and U.S.) history.
Assuming the tribes agree to work toward a measure that incorporates the third-party books, these companies would have to partner with most if not all of the state’s tribal stakeholders.
California's approach carries national significance given the state's size. Siva said California tribes generate roughly $13 billion annually in gaming revenue. More than one-quarter of all tribal gaming revenue nationwide and about 10% of the combined U.S. commercial and tribal gaming market.
"When we do something, it has a massive effect," he said.
Prediction market impact
Panelists repeatedly tied the sports betting discussion to the rapid emergence of federally regulated prediction markets offering sports event contracts through exchanges such as Kalshi. Tribal leaders argued those products are siphoning wagering activity away from tribal gaming while bypassing the state regulatory systems governing traditional sports betting.
"Without a doubt and with no flares or drama, prediction markets are the largest, most impending threat we've faced since the creation of this industry," Siva said.
He estimated tribes are already seeing measurable revenue migration and warned the impact could worsen if event contracts expand beyond sports into casino-style products.
"We're starting to see real revenue numbers leave Indian Country," Siva said, adding that some early estimates suggest sports-related prediction markets alone could reduce tribal gaming revenue by around 5%.
The discussion reflected how prediction markets have become intertwined with California's sports betting debate. While tribal leaders continue planning for a 2028 ballot measure, they indicated protecting existing tribal exclusivity has become an equally urgent priority. Asked whether California lawmakers should pursue narrower legislation regulating prediction markets, Siva said tribes have opposed bills that merely restrict participation by certain groups because doing so could inadvertently strengthen the legal argument that prediction markets are otherwise lawful.
Johnny Hernandez, vice chairman of the Yuhaaviatam of San Manuel Nation, echoed those concerns, calling for stronger enforcement against what tribes view as unauthorized gaming.
"I think that is at most the biggest threat currently," Hernandez said. "Look at it; it's gaming."
