The Bills stand alone in the Super Bowl betting market after Week 1.
Key Takeaways
- The Bills move to +600 at BetMGM after edging the Ravens on Sunday night.
- The Packers see a significant change in odds and attention after a win over the Lions.
- Bettors targeted several NFL stars in player award markets after Week 1.
Buffalo was co-favorite with Baltimore and Philadelphia in the odds to outright win the NFL’s championship before the season began, but the market has responded to a wild 41-40 win Sunday night.
“The Bills' thrilling comeback against the Ravens has propelled them to Super Bowl favorites after Week 1,” BetMGM senior trading manager Christian Cipollini said Tuesday. “Buffalo (+600) is the most-bet team (by handle) to win the big game."
However, there wasn’t a major shift in the Super Bowl odds. Buffalo went from +700 to +600, while Baltimore came down from +700 to +650, signaling how much bettors and oddmakers still value the AFC North contender.
Leading the way
Buffalo leads all teams at BetMGM with 13.7% of the Super Bowl winner market’s money. The Bills are second behind the Lions in ticket count, with 10.4% of the bets.
The Ravens aren’t far behind, coming in fourth with 10.8% of the money and third in tickets at 9%.
ESPN BET reported the same move in the Super Bowl market Monday, with the Bills taking over as favorites. However, the Ravens have been the most-bet team at the online operator since Sunday, receiving 19.1% of the bets and 22.7% of the handle. The Bills are third with 12.4% of the tickets and 10.4% of the money.
Chasing the top
Week 1 produced a few larger leaps in terms of odds to win the Super Bowl. At Caesars Sportsbook, the Colts went from +12,500 up to +8,000 after destroying Miami.
The Packers made a significant move as well, going from +1,400 to +900 at Caesars after throttling a Lions team that’s received the highest handle at BetMGM. Green Bay is getting 5% of the tickets and 6.9% of the money.
At ESPN BET, the Packers jumped the Chiefs, who lost to the Chargers, and the Lions. Green Bay moved to +800, fourth-best odds in the market.
Taking a tumble
Detroit slipped from +1,200 to +1,700 at BetMGM after the loss. The Eagles remained at +700, third on the Super Bowl winner’s odds list.
The Dolphins took the biggest week-over-week tumble, going from +8,000 to +20,000, following their embarrassing 33-8 loss.
The online operator’s biggest liabilities, because of longer, more enticing odds during the preseason, are the Raiders, Giants, and Seahawks. The latter two lost their openers, but Las Vegas got an impressive win over the Patriots. The Raiders’ odds to win the Super Bowl went from +9,000 to +8,000 at Caesars.
Player pushes
Unsurprisingly, reigning NFL MVP and Bills quarterback Josh Allen is now the favorite at +375 to reclaim the award, moving ahead of Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (+450 to +500) at ESPN BET.
The online operator said Allen has picked up 24.4% of the MVP handle since Sunday, ahead of Steelers signal-caller Aaron Rodgers (13.3%), whose odds jumped from +6,000 to +5,000.
Falcons running back Bijan Robinson snagged the highest Offensive Player of the Year handle since Sunday at 20.8%, while 63.3% of the money in the Defensive Player of the Year market has come in on Steelers pass-rusher T.J. Watt.
