With five weeks remaining in the NFL season, teams are focused on playoff spots and division titles, but futures bettors are busy sweating out win totals.
Key Takeaways
- The Patriots and Broncos are among the overachievers who have already surpassed their preseason win totals.
- The Steelers and Giants are the most-bet teams with futures outcomes remaining.
- Popular teams like the Lions, Cowboys, and Eagles still have a ways to go to cash over tickets.
The league has reached the point in the season where every game has major implications for someone beyond just the spread. This is the last week for byes as well, ramping up the intensity coming down the stretch.
theScore Bet told Covers that seven teams have already surpassed the sportsbook’s betting market win totals: Broncos (9.5), Patriots (7.5), Jaguars (6.5), Colts (6.5), Bears (8.5), Seahawks (8.5), and Panthers (6.5).
Five more teams are locked in to going under their preseason win total: Ravens (11.5, currently 6-6), Chiefs (11.5, currently 6-6), Bengals (10.5, currently 4-8), Commanders (10.5, currently 3-9), and Cardinals (8.5, currently 3-9).
That leaves 20 teams still in play.
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Over it
The Steelers and Giants are the two remaining squads with the highest number of bets and largest handles at theScore Bet.
Pittsburgh’s total at theScore Bet was 8.5 in preseason. The Steelers are 6-6 heading into Week 14 at Baltimore. Pittsburgh also has the Dolphins at home, the Lions and Browns away, and the Ravens at home remaining.
One of the worst teams in the league, the Giants began the season with a win total of 4.5, and they currently have two wins, tying them with the Saints and Raiders. Only the Titans have fewer victories. All these teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs.
New York is off this week before finishing the final four weeks of the season versus the Commanders and Vikings, at the Raiders, and versus Dallas.
Needing help
Based on BetMGM’s preseason win totals, no team playing this week can cash over tickets immediately.
The Chargers and Packers are two wins away from going over 9.5. Dallas is just as close to 7.5 heading into Thursday night, and the 49ers are also in need of two more victories to surpass 10.5, but they are off this week.
Several teams, including the Texans, Browns, Dolphins, and Buccaneers, need three more wins to go over. Bettors holding win-total over tickets on popular teams like the Eagles and Lions need them to win four of their last five contests. The Falcons and Raiders are also long shots to reach their overs.
TNF insights
Two heavily bet teams face off Thursday night when the Cowboys and Lions meet for a greatly needed win. Detroit is a -3 favorite at home and getting 55% of the bets and 64% of the handle at BetMGM. The Lions are getting 55% of the handle at DraftKings, but the Cowboys have taken 55% of the wagers.
Both operators reported over 60% of the tickets and the money are backing the over on an incredibly high 54.5-point total.
