Team USA is expected to finish second in gold medals and total medals at Milan-Cortina, according to Kalshi’s Winter Olympics odds.
The United States is one of only two countries with a greater than 1% chance to compete in both medals races, according to Kalshi.
Key Takeaways
- The Americans only have a 3% chance to win the most medals.
- Norway is totally dominating the race for the most medals and gold medals.
- Italy is ahead of the USA in medals and gold medals, yet they trail in odds.
Kalshi’s odds are representative of real-time trades between customers. In other words, consumers have dictated the odds and their corresponding prices through supply and demand.
The Kalshi customer base has ultimately determined that Norway and the United States are the only nations with a hope of topping the leaderboard in golds and total medals. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Norway has a whopping 97% chance of collecting the most hardware and a 98% chance of winning the most gold medals. The USA has a 3% and 2% chance in each respective market.
If these odds were translated to those found at traditional sportsbooks, the Stars and Stripes would have about +3,233 and +4,900 odds in each market. A user who parlayed both outcomes would win $1,665 from a $1 wager if they were to come true.
While those odds don’t reflect kindly on Team USA’s chances of climbing the leaderboard, they are still positioned ahead of every other team in contention. That’s despite ranking third in gold medals (six) and total medals (19th) as of the morning of Tuesday, Feb. 17.
Norway leads both categories with 13 golds and 30 total medals. The host nation, Italy, is second in both, with eight golds and 23 medals.
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An unexpected slip
Opening odds for the Winter Olympics positioned the USA second in the race for total medals and third in the hunt for golds at +550 and +450, respectively. Norway led both categories (-310 and -160), and Germany was second in odds to win the most gold medals (+400).
The Americans had a hot start to the competition and closed to +140 in most medals odds as of last Thursday. However, underwhelming showings in figure skating and speed skating headlined several disappointments that caused them to fall far behind the dominant Norwegians.
Ilia “Quad God” Malinin fell twice during the free skate, causing him to finish eighth overall despite being a huge favorite to win the gold.
Erin Jackson, who became the first black woman to win the gold medal in individual speedskating at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, also finished off the podium in fifth in the 500-meter speed skating.
The Red, White and Blue can make up ground in both men’s and women’s hockey. The men will participate in the quarterfinal on Wednesday, and the women will take on Canada in the gold medal game on Thursday.
Where is the competition?
Aside from Norway and Italy, Team USA’s biggest competition should come from Japan, who is fourth with 18 medals, or the Netherlands, who are tied with the USA with the third-most medals (six).
The Winter Olympics will conclude on Sunday, Feb. 22. There are still plenty of gold medal matches and events to come.
