BetMGM CEO Adam Greenblatt expects the Supreme Court to rule against prediction markets, arguing that their sports and casino-like products go beyond what Congress intended.
- Greenblatt warns that prediction markets could find ways to offer casino-like products despite proposed federal restrictions.
- BetMGM grew revenue while cutting sportsbook acquisition spending, despite heavy customer-acquisition spending by prediction markets.
- Q3 net revenue rose 7% to $710 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 112% to $86 million.
Speaking during BetMGM’s third-quarter earnings call Tuesday, Greenblatt said he is looking forward to the Supreme Court clarifying the legal uncertainty surrounding prediction markets. He noted that most cases have been decided in favor of states, attorneys general, and tribes and said he expected the same outcome from the high court.
“I think the key test is whether this was the intent of Congress,” Greenblatt said, “and I think that that will be shown to not be the case.”
He said he hopes for a resolution during the 2026-27 Supreme Court term, though the justices have yet to decide whether to hear the case. The NFL, American Gaming Association, and a host of other stakeholders recently urged the high court to take the case.
The current term, which began earlier this month, runs through June 2027. Leading gaming attorneys have outlined a potential timeline in which the justices agree to hear the cases in December 2026 or January 2027 and issue a ruling by June, though delays could push a decision into a later term.
New rules don’t ease prediction market concerns
In his comments Tuesday, Greenblatt also rejected the notion that recent federal regulatory language restricting prediction market casino products has eliminated the threat to traditional gambling operators. Though major prediction markets have said they don’t plan to offer traditional versions of real-money online slot and table games, Greenblatt worries the proposed regulations won’t prevent them from developing functionally similar products.
“I don’t think it’s no longer a risk,” Greenblatt said about the federal regulatory proposals. “I think if anything the risk has been stayed for some time. I think what’s happening now is cosmetics in pursuit of survival.”
If prediction markets survive the legal challenges, casino-like products could return in another form, Greenblatt said. The rules being developed now could also be changed later, leaving the longer-term risk unresolved.
Greenblatt also expects more states to challenge sports event contracts and casino-style prediction products under their own laws, potentially shrinking the markets’ available customer base.
Nevada has been at the forefront of the legal challenges and can now enforce its gambling laws against unlicensed sports event contracts. Greenblatt said the impact is difficult to measure because of differences in where and how customers register, but he expects the restrictions to benefit BetMGM.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
BetMGM sees revenue increases despite prediction markets
Greenblatt said BetMGM has improved its financial performance even as prediction markets continue to spend heavily to attract customers. He attributed improving BetMGM returns to changes in its own strategy rather than any moves by its competitors.
The comments came as BetMGM reported $710 million in third-quarter net revenue, up 7% year over year, and $86 million in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, up 112%. Online sports betting handle increased 3% to $3.24 billion.
Greenblatt said the results demonstrated the business can grow while reducing sportsbook marketing investment and competing with prediction markets.
“We want to remain as flexible as possible to respond to market conditions as they evolve and change over time,” Greenblatt said, “and the distortion that has been introduced and remains by prediction markets is just one of the macro factors that we have to respond to.”
BetMGM has refocused customer acquisition opportunities in areas less affected by prediction markets. Greenblatt said that approach helped reduce acquisition costs and improve the time needed to recover marketing investment.
The company had “meaningfully reduced” direct online sportsbook acquisition spending over several quarters while maintaining an 8% share of the sports gross gaming revenue market, according to its earnings release.
BetMGM is one of the largest U.S. sports betting operators without a prediction market platform. FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics offer sports event contracts in some states where they don't operate online sportsbooks.
BetMGM reports Q3 2026 highlights: - Net Revenue of $710 million (+7% YoY) - iGaming Net Revenue of $483 million (+6% YoY) - Online Sports Net Revenue of $216 million (+7% YoY) - Adjusted EBITDA of $86 million (+112% YoY)
— Ryan Butler (@butlerbetstrade) October 13, 2026
Its sportsbook results showed growth concentrated among more valuable players. Third-quarter online sports net revenue rose 7% to $216 million, while handle per active player increased 13% and net revenue per active user climbed 18%.
This came with a year-over-year decline in sportsbook player numbers. Across the business, average monthly active players fell 3% to 878,000.
The company reiterated full-year net revenue guidance of between $2.9 billion and $3.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $300 million to $350 million, expecting results toward the lower end of both ranges.
Those targets depend on continued disciplined investment as BetMGM navigates competition from established operators and prediction markets. Greenblatt said the company’s improving acquisition performance showed its ability to adapt even when external conditions remained challenging.
“What it demonstrates is that almost regardless of what happens in the external environment, we will find a way,” Greenblatt said.
