English Premier League title odds underwent a large shift over the weekend, all because of a game that didn’t affect the title race at all.
Defending champion Arsenal surged to near-even money value after they thrashed Manchester City in the Community Shield, 3-0.
Key Takeaways
- Arsenal whalloped Man City after failing to beat them in the league last year.
- Man City is expected to sell its club captain, Rodri, to Barcelona in the coming days.
- Manchester United and Liverpool also lengthened in title odds in response to Arsenal shortening.
There are 38 matches in an EPL season. The Community Shield is not one of them, but don’t tell that to the oddsmakers.
The Community Shield pits the reigning Premier League champions against the FA Cup winners. The match awards a trophy to the winner and is considered a competitive event, although it mostly serves as a final warm-up for the competing teams before the league begins the following weekend.
To say that Arsenal was anything short of worthy of the victory would be a bald-faced lie. Riccardo Calafiori opened the scoring in the first minute of the match before his team easily saw out the remainder of the 90 minutes, despite conceding more possession of the ball and giving up just as many shots as they took (five).
According to FanDuel, Arsenal led EPL title odds at +140 leading up to the match. Manchester City was second at +280, before there was a drop-off to the next contenders.
Arsenal’s ferocious victory helped them shorten to +105 in updated odds to win the Premier League heading into matchweek 1. In other words, the Gunners went from a 41.7% implied chance of winning the title to 48.8%. The difference between the two odds values is the difference between winning $140 and $105 on a $100 wager.
Manchester City was not as fortunate. The Citizens, who won six of the last nine league titles, dropped to +290, bringing them from a 26.3% to a 25.6% chance of finishing atop the table.
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Man City dropping
Oddsmakers at multiple sportsbooks favored Manchester City to win the Community Shield. That was surprising — and profoundly off-base — for several reasons.
For starters, Arsenal was and is favored to win the league. Enzo Maresca, formerly in charge of City’s U23 side before coaching Leicester City to promotion and Chelsea to the FIFA Club World Cup title, is also taking charge of the club in the first season of the post-Pep Guardiola era. His former boss is known as one of the best managers ever and had been at the club since 2016.
There’s also been substantial player turnover at the club. They signed midfielder Elliot Anderson for £115.4 million ($156.5 million) from Nottingham Forest, but on Sunday, they reportedly agreed to sell captain Rodri to Barcelona for €76.5 million ($87.8 million). That likely played a role in FanDuel lengthening City’s EPL title odds while shortening Arsenal’s.
🚨🔵🔴 EXCLUSIVE: RODRI TO BARCELONA, HERE WE GO! 💥
— Fabrizio Romano (@FabrizioRomano) August 16, 2026
Deal agreed for Spanish midfielder to join Barça from Man City, all done for the former Ballon d’Or.
Green light from Man City to last Barcelona bid.
More follows. 💣 pic.twitter.com/ECs2v6HIHX
While Man City was on the wrong end of Arsenal’s weekend victory, the result had a trickle-down effect on fellow contenders Liverpool and Manchester United. The clubs, which had been third and fourth in title odds last week, lengthened from +550 to +600 and +700 to +850, respectively.
Interestingly, Chelsea, which was fifth at +800 a week ago, remained unchanged. The Blues thereby passed Man United and now sit fourth in the odds table with an 11.1% chance of winning the league.
Golden Boots odds haven’t moved
While EPL title odds underwent a noticeable change, the odds to win the Golden Boot are the same as they were a week ago. Man City’s Erling Haaland, winner of three of the last four, leads at a towering -155. No other active player has won the EPL Golden Boot.
Liverpool’s Alexander Isak (+850), Brentford’s Igor Thiago (+1,100), and Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (+1,600) headline the list of the top challengers.
