Texas quarterback Arch Manning turned heads in the Citrus Bowl on Wednesday, garnering belief that he will be the next Heisman odds favorite.
Manning opened this year as the favorite for the award, but Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza claimed the honor, while Manning wasn’t invited to the Heisman ceremony.
Key Takeaways
- Manning had an implied chance of about 14.3% to win the 2025 Heisman at opening.
- Five of the last eight Heisman Trophy winners were picked first in the NFL Draft.
- Manning finished the year playing much better than he started, and already announced he will return to Texas.
Manning, nephew of NFL legends Peyton and Eli Manning, went 21/34 for 221 yards and two passing touchdowns while running for 155 yards and another two scores in the bowl game victory over No. 18 Michigan.
ARCH DOES IT AGAIN 🤯
— ESPN (@espn) December 31, 2025
60 YARDS TO THE HOUSE‼️ pic.twitter.com/shY5tixTdr
He finished his season with a stat line of 3,163 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, seven INTs, 399 rushing yards, and 10 rushing TDs. He was also 16th nationally in QBR (78.4).
The Texas captain’s performance in the Citrus Bowl capped off an up-and-down year, but one that he finished playing a high level of football. As he prepares to head into his junior year and second season as a starter, prominent voices in college football believe that he should be expected to win the next Heisman trophy.
Arch Manning will be the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy next year and favorite to be #1 pick in the 2027 draft. Huge huge improvement from week 1 to now.
— Matt Leinart (@MattLeinartQB) December 31, 2025
There’s only one problem with this: Manning was supposed to win the trophy this year.
When Heisman Trophy odds were first published for the 2025 campaign, Manning found himself in the driver seat at around +600. He struggled early on and essentially played himself out of the Heisman conversation within the first two months of the season, but he spent the second half of the year flashing the potential the oddsmakers believed he would.
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Will Arch be first pick in the NFL Draft?
Earlier this year, there had been speculation that Manning would declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. Oddsmakers frequently had him favored or near their top of odds to be the first pick in the draft until he announced in December that he would return to Texas for another year.
Odds haven’t been published, but the assumption is that he will once again be a top candidate to be the first pick in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Arch Manning would go #1 if he came out this year. Without a doubt.
— Doug Kezirian (@DougKezirian) December 31, 2025
Maybe Brady can persuade him...
Thru the ups and downs when it’s all said and done Arch Manning will be the #1 overall pick in 2027 A year later than everyone thought but he is who most thought he was
— Booger (@ESPNBooger) January 1, 2026
Heisman winners have typically gone first in the draft, although that didn’t hold true the last couple of years. Both 2024 winner Travis Hunter and 2023 winner Jayden Daniels were taken second in their respective draft classes.
Before that, five of six winners were taken with the first pick. The one exception was the only non-quarterback to win the Heisman during that stretch, DeVonta Smith, who went 10th overall.
Only one Heisman winner in the last 20 years wasn’t taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. That was Ohio State’s Troy Smith, who won the 2006 Heisman but was only selected 174th overall in the fifth round. Lamar Jackson came close to falling out of the first round, dropping to the Baltimore Ravens, who had the 32nd pick in 2018.
2026 Heisman Trophy picks
Heisman Trophy odds have not been published for the 2026 season.
Despite that, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach published an article with “way-too-early” contenders for the award. His nominations included:
- Jeremiah Smith Jr. - Ohio State WR
- Julian Sayin - Ohio State QB
- Gunner Stockton - Georgia QB
- Malachi Toney - Miami WR
- Arch Manning - Texas QB
- Trinidad Chambliss - Ole Miss QB
- Ahmad Hardy - Missouri RB
- Marcel Reed - Texas A&M QB
- Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele - California QB
- Kewan Lacy - Ole Miss RB
- Jayden Maiava - USC QB
- Bo Jackson - Ohio State QB
- Drew Mestemaker - North Texas QB
- CJ Carr - Notre Dame QB
- Demond Williams Jr. - Washington QB
