We Asked ChatGPT to Predict the Outcome of the PGA Championship

The PGA Championship makes its eagerly anticipated return to Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina this week from May 15 to 18. This year's tournament features a formidable field of 156 players, including Rory McIlroy, fresh off his Masters victory, and defending champion Xander Schauffele, who is looking to become the first repeat winner since 2019.

Sorting through so many golfers isn't an easy task, so we turned to ChatGPT to see who it thinks will claim the coveted Wanamaker Trophy. We brought everyone's favorite chatbot up to speed by feeding it the latest statistical and betting information available. That included PGA Championship odds for the entire field, the results of every PGA and LIV Golf event from the past 12 months, and a number of advanced metrics like driving distance, putts per hole, and driving accuracy.

We then provided ChatGPT with historical information from recent iterations of the PGA Championship and supplied it with essential information about the layout of Quail Hollow, including the infamous Green Mile, where the men are separated from the boys.

It considered the data carefully and, within a matter of seconds, provided us with PGA Championship predictions for the Top 5 finishers and several other enticing props. The results weren’t entirely shocking, but the level of detail was impressive just the same.

🏆 2025 PGA Championship Top 5 prediction

The 2025 PGA Championship is shaping up to be a thrilling contest, featuring a field rich with talent and compelling storylines. Based on recent performances, course history, and current form, here are the contenders likely to finish at the top:

5. Xander Schauffele (+2000)

The defending PGA Champion has shown resilience, overcoming early-season injuries to post consistent performances, including a T8 at the Masters. His recent form indicates he's ready to defend his title.

4. Justin Thomas (+2200)

Returning to the site of his 2017 PGA Championship victory, Thomas has regained momentum with a recent win and two runner-up finishes this season. His familiarity with Quail Hollow and current form make him a serious contender.

3. Bryson DeChambeau (+950)

DeChambeau is in excellent form, having won the LIV Golf Korea event and narrowly missing out at the Masters. His powerful driving and recent performances suggest he's poised for another strong showing this week.

2. Scottie Scheffler (+400)

The World No. 1 golfer recently tied the PGA Tour 72-hole scoring record with a 31-under performance at TPC Craig Ranch. His consistent excellence and recent victory position him as a formidable contender.

1. Rory McIlroy (+450)

Fresh off completing his career Grand Slam with a Masters victory, McIlroy returns to Quail Hollow—a course where he's secured four wins. His familiarity and success at this venue, combined with his current form, make him a strong favorite.

🏌️ Method of victory

McIlroy arrived at Quail Hollow riding the momentum of a historic Masters win, finally completing his elusive career Grand Slam. Confidence wasn’t just high—it was tidal. But at Quail Hollow, the pressure wasn’t just about momentum. It was legacy.

Round 1: Precision over power

While others tried to overpower the soft Thursday conditions, Rory kept his driver holstered more than usual. He leaned on course familiarity and laser-accurate irons to post a bogey-free 66. It was conservative by his standards, but smart: don’t win the tournament on Day 1—just don’t lose it.

Round 2: The McIlroy surge

Friday was vintage Rory. He opened with back-to-back birdies and launched a 343-yard missile on the par-5 7th, setting up an easy eagle. He closed the round with a trademark late charge: birdie-birdie-par to card a 65. He took the outright lead heading into the weekend, the roars around Quail echoing shades of 2010, 2015, 2021, and 2023.

Round 3: Weathering the storm

Saturday brought wind and tension. Scheffler was charging, and DeChambeau had muscles—and momentum. But Rory held steady. He didn’t force it. A gritty 70 in swirling gusts was the round of the day among the leaders. He made clutch putts on 11 and 17 to preserve a slim two-shot edge.

Final Round: Closing the door

Sunday was a lesson in poise. Scheffler eagled the 10th to cut the lead to one. The crowd buzzed. But Rory responded the way only legends do—by stuffing a 7-iron to four feet on the 14th and draining a nervy 12-foot par putt on 16. He walked up 18 with a two-shot cushion and the crowd chanting his name.

He tapped in for par and a final-round 68—four rounds in the 60s at a major.

The final verdict: McIlroy -15, Champion.

🔮 PGA Championship longshot prediction

Aaron Rai isn’t flashy—but that’s exactly why he’s dangerous. The Englishman is one of the most accurate drivers and purest ball-strikers on tour, consistently ranking near the top in fairways hit and strokes gained on approach. Quail Hollow demands precision off the tee and into elevated greens, especially on holes like the par-4 16th and treacherous par-3 17th, where placement is everything. Rai’s calm demeanor under pressure and repeatable swing make him a great fit for a major where many others will be scrambling.

Beyond the stats, Rai is trending. He’s logged several solid Top-25 finishes this season and has quietly gained strokes in every major category over his last five starts. And let’s not forget: he’s already a two-time winner on the DP World Tour and came close to victory at the 2023 Scottish Open, where he stared down Rory McIlroy in the final group. If he gets hot with the putter—and that’s the key—he has the consistency and temperament to be lurking late on Sunday.

Pick: Aaron Rai (+15000 at DraftKings)

⛳ Will there be a hole-in-one at the PGA Championship?

The 4th hole at Quail Hollow—just 184 yards and already the site of an ace in the 2017 PGA—is perfectly primed for another. With softer May conditions and precision ball-strikers like Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Åberg in the field, it’s not just possible—it’s probable.

Add in the par-3 13th, which plays a comfortable 205 yards and often funnels toward the pin on middle-left placements, and you’ve got two prime candidates for magic.

Combine the deepest and most aggressive field in major championship golf with course familiarity and modern equipment, and it’s time to call it:

Will there be a hole-in-one at the 2025 PGA Championship: Yes
Likeliest round: Round 4 (+900 at DraftKings)
Likeliest player: Tommy Fleetwood.

ChatGPT is an impressive tool capable of producing entertaining results, but it ultimately lacks the insights and experience of a veteran handicapper. Check out our free golf picks from the experts at Covers to get the most informed analysis.

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