NHL Home Chase

VAN is one long home stand.  There is potential for more than one chase.
So hopefully they will win game one and a new chase can start.
Be careful though because SJ is on the verge of screwing this whole thing up if they don't win on 12/11 (I'm playing it).
Luckily I hedged SJ last night with LA puck line and broke even for the day or else it would have been brutal.
I am going to look at last months results and see if taking the dog either ml or pl would have worked also.  Because as the season progresses the juice is going to get crazy high on the good teams. 

Which do you play when there is a conflict with JM v1 like Dal vs SJ on 12/11?

Play both and go for a middle.

Does this situation come up often or just occasionaly?

smitler,

I became a systems player a short time ago. I'm sold. The obvious problem with hockey systems is the juice. One A,B,C 3.00 loss wipes out 63 wins. So any hockey system in an ABC chase can only stand 1 or 2 loses per season. I have backtested 10 teams for this year & last year.  1 loss. "D" covered. There were 4 "C" wins. Any ideas on possible filters?

r2pro I have realized that no system is perfect and any filter created will eventually be exposed.  I'm really just experimenting with these plays, documenting the results and looking for trends.  Read post 126 about juice.  I have to see how the dogs have fared since I started posting.
The biggest filter is managing my bankroll and emotional discipline.  If I'm successful manipulating those aspects I believe many of these systems are viable.
I'm trying but still haven't figured it out.  I believe I would be way ahead if I didn't go on tilt and make shitty spot plays.  That is why Vegas and the books never go broke.
Serenity now. Insanity later.

By no means am I trying to put a damper on this thread.  I backtested the 08-09 season and the results were not as good as initially communicated with Smitler.

Last year the following teams lost 3 or more games to start a homestand of 3 or more games.

NYI   L3

Mon  L3  W 4th

Ott L3  W 4th

Tor L3 W4th  and     L3 a 2nd time

TB L3      and   L3 a 2nd time

Wash L4

Chi L3 W 4+5

Col L3

Van L5

Dal L3          and L5 a 2nd time

LA L3            and L3  a 2nd time W4th

Last year 12 times a home team lost 3 straight to begin the homestand.

As far as starting a 2nd chase after a win on a long homestand also the results were not favorable.

NYI W 1st L next 4

Bos W 1st L next 3

Ott    8games W1st 4 then L 3

Car W 1st L next 3

TB W 1st L next 3  and 5 games L,W L3

Det W 1st L3

Nash W 1,2 then L 3

Col W 1,2 then L4

Edm W L W then L3

Ana L W then L3

LA W 3 then L4

Pho W 1st then L3

Those were the results from last season.  It is a small sample size.  Looking for a filter its not clear because teams such as Chi, Van, Dal and Wash were amongst those losing 3 straight to begin a homestand.

As far as trying to get multiple plays from 1 homestand, looking at the results it isn't recommended because even teams like Bos and Det were fell victim.

Take this information for what its worth.  Once again it is only last year and a small sample size.

Go Home teams Go

Best of Luck

 

Correction it was 15 times not 12.

 

P did you check to see if there were any home dogs that covered on the PL?  We have had two of them so far.

We might be using different rules. I tested 3 conc @ home, all against in conf, m/l if fav & p/l if dog. One chase per home stand. 08/09 NYI 2 plays. 1/13 168 dog. P/L covered. 2/26 108 dog. P/L covered.

Good Point,  no I did not.

As you can imagine going thru every team from last year gets very tiresome. The site I was getting the results from only listed w/l and the score.  It didn't list if teams were favs or dogs. To get a more accurate picture this has to be done.  I apologize to all and I had no intention of trying to mislead the readers.

I would imagine there would be more than a handful of times which the home teams were dogs. 

I'm just not sure when I will be able to go thru them again.

Maybe someone could help.  The teams have been established already which was the bulk of the work.  Those teams which don't apply have been weeded out. If anyone else would like to take the ball from here it would be appreciated, otherwise I will try to continue on with backtesting as soon as possible.

Thanks to all.

Best of Luck

Well SJ just Fkd us over. That is the first series loss trying for a second win.  I am going back tomorrow and look at this closer.
It may work better to take the visiting dog pl. Are you Fkn kiddin me!

DAM!! I checked the wrong box yesterday and bet on dallas I was on my 4th mix drink when I placed the bet that's one more then my limit, turn out good.

I analyzed the results since I started posting and found some useful information.
The road dog covered every single series thus far if you had them puck line.
The road dog won outright all but two times (WAS and NAS).
NAS won five home games in a row and were never over -150 favorites.
They had one road game then came home and lost two of three there.
WAS won three home games and were at least -165 favorites.
They split two road games and returned home for one game and lost.

Possible filters: 
Dog SU if +149 or less.
Dog PL if +150 or greater.

Let me know your thoughts and ideas on this analysis.  I don't know much about NHL so those who do may be able to get more in depth.

It did work tonight. I took COL ML and CAL PL tonight for a double win.

December 2009
01,03,05,09,11_________SJ      12/1, Lost next 4
02,04,05______________NJ      11/28 and 12/4
03,05,07______________PIT     12/3
03,05,07,09,11_________BUF   12/3 and 12/9
03,05,09______________CLB    12/9
03,05,07______________LA      12/3
03,05,07______________PHO 12/3
05,07,09______________TB      12/5
05,08,10,12____________NSH  12/8
09,11,13,15,19_________COL   12/11 and 12/13
09,11,12,16,18_________NJ      12/9 and 12/12
10,12,14,16,18,20,22,26_VAN   12/10 and 12/12
12,14,16______________NYR
12,14,16______________TOR  12/12
13,16,18,20,22_________CHI   11/13
15,17,19,21____________EDM
17,19,21,23____________NYI
17,19,21_______________PHI
17,19,21_______________ATL
17,19,23,27____________CGY
19,21,23,26____________CAR
19,21,23_______________DAL
21,23,26_______________MIN
21,23,27_______________PIT
21,23,26_______________PHO
23,26,28_______________WAS
23,26,28,30,1/02________TB
23,26,30_______________NYR
26,28,30_______________SJ
27,31,1/03______________FLA
27,29,31,1/02___________STL
28,30,31,1/03,1/05_______OTT
29,31,1/02______________PHO
29,31,1/02______________DAL
30,31,1/02______________CGY

Hey Smitty,

Just wanted to correct and add to earler post using 08-09 season.

I want to apologize again because I made some errors.

This is a small sample size but went back and rechecked.  As mentioned before, not trying to mislead just looking to help us all find the best way to make $$$.

Last year the following teams lost at least 3 staright at home but I will also list those that covered the PL +1.5.

NYI  LLL covered g2   LLLL covered g1

Tor LLL covered g1

Car LLL no cover

TB LLL no cover  - LLL 2nd time covered g2 - LLL 3rd time covered g3

Wash LLLL  no cover

Det LLL  no cover

Nash LLL covered g2

Edm LLL covered g3

Van LLLLL no cover

Dal LLL  no cover

LA LLLL covered g1 g3     LLL 2nd time    no cover

Pho LLL covered g1

Final results were 7 times a team lost 3 straight and didn't cover

        9 other times a team lost 3 straight but covered PL in 1 of 3

Then I back checked teams which w and tried to get another win on the homestand.

Bos WW LLL  won2 then no cover in 3 losses

Mon W LLL no cover in 3 L

OTT LW LLLL  no cover in 4L   2nd time W LLL covered g1

Tor W LLL covered g2

TB LW LLL lost 3 covered g3 of 3 L

Chi WWLLL won2 then covered g3 of 3 L

Col LW LLLL covered g4 of 4 losses     LLL covered g2

Ana W LLL no cover

LA W LLLLL covered g2 of 5L

Pho W LLL no cover

 Teams trying for additional series wins -- 5 teams lost 3 straight after 1st win of homestand.without covering the PL.

 

Thanks Smitler

Go Home Teams Go

Best of Luck

 

Like you method here. Been using an different stakes method on it though, you make less money but there are no big losses when a series losses. By doing the money this way you can play out a team until you have a profit. You can find it at https://www.grandstand.com.au/master.htm?https://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

Good Luck

Phishalot

Like you method here. Been using an different stakes method on it though, you make less money but there are no big losses when a series losses. By doing the money this way you can play out a team until you have a profit. You can find it at https://www.grandstand.com.au/master.htm?https://www.grandstand.com.au/retirement.html

Good Luck

Phishalot

I quickly read through the linked page and kinda got it.  Can you post an example for this thread.

any comments on the oilers game? Im thinking about sitting out "A" due to how well kings are playing right now, but they are favorites. let me know.

Playin them both.  There is a B game for LA puck line on another system.
Shoot for the coveted middle.

One game tonight

 

Rangers   C  play

So I took your version of this method and applied it to the whole season.  Here is the record by month
      W  - L
Oct   25 - 1
Nov   29 - 0
Dec   13 - 0
Total 67 - 1

I create a second version that takes 6 game home stands and break them into two series.  This gave two more possible series to bet on.  Here is the record by month
      W  - L
Oct   25 - 1
Nov   31 - 0
Dec   13 - 0
Total 69 - 1

I will continue posting and playing this system, however, I'm going to shift my emphasis to playing the road dog either Puck Line or Money Line.
We lost another series tonight with the NYR.  That makes two since November 1 and a record of 40-2
Read post 139 for the reason in shift.
In summary, we would be 42-0 if took Puck Line on the road team.
Additionally, we would be 40-2 if we took the road team Money Line. So a lot less juice to risk with same result.
I wonder if you can parlay them (just thinkin out loud).
Please comment if you have any long term experience doing any of the above.
This is my first year playing NHL and there appears to be more potential here for a great system than in any other sport.  Just need to figure it out.
Who knows, I may be crazier than a shit house rat too.