GSW line seems to be waaay off when compared to past results, I have a model that most of the times give me lines very close to the books. It's a compound of performance over past 6 games + perf last 12 games + home court adv + est pace + referee bias. It gives me a fair line of -13.5 for GSW compared to the -5 offered.
Now I haven't been reading up on team news so wonder if there are any major squad changes expected for the game or anything else that would disrupt.
0
PROJ
107
-13.5
201.5
O
#DIV/0!
94
13.5
U
#DIV/0!
BOOK
GSW
-5.0
199.5
A cov
55%
MIL
5.0
H cov
45%
GSW line seems to be waaay off when compared to past results, I have a model that most of the times give me lines very close to the books. It's a compound of performance over past 6 games + perf last 12 games + home court adv + est pace + referee bias. It gives me a fair line of -13.5 for GSW compared to the -5 offered.
Now I haven't been reading up on team news so wonder if there are any major squad changes expected for the game or anything else that would disrupt.
Sorry for jacking the thread but I dont frequent any other and yuou guys feel a bit like buddies so:
I have a tool that gives me lines based based on prev results last 6, last 12 + hcourt adv + referee bias + season ave perf + est pace and it gives me GSW line that is waay off (usually I get lines fairly close to the books):
Haven't read up on team news - is anything up that would cause a big line shift in bucks favor?
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That paste sure come out wonky.
Repost
Sorry for jacking the thread but I dont frequent any other and yuou guys feel a bit like buddies so:
I have a tool that gives me lines based based on prev results last 6, last 12 + hcourt adv + referee bias + season ave perf + est pace and it gives me GSW line that is waay off (usually I get lines fairly close to the books):
Congrats again on the Sparty win CG. I think maybe it's anorexic milf that's bringing the organization bad luck. Things aren't good when she's around. Stick with asian milf for now. Best of luck today.
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Congrats again on the Sparty win CG. I think maybe it's anorexic milf that's bringing the organization bad luck. Things aren't good when she's around. Stick with asian milf for now. Best of luck today.
Oddsmakers are following this thread and have seen several people mention the fact Golden State is their lock of the season tonight. Immediately adjusted their numbers
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Oddsmakers are following this thread and have seen several people mention the fact Golden State is their lock of the season tonight. Immediately adjusted their numbers
i dont get this,not one little bit...not one tiny,miniscule,microscopic,little bit...the guy goes on ad nauseum about how hes doing sumthing everyone else is too chicken-shiit to do by "chasing his dream" and doing it "his way"(and oh boy,is he ever doing it his way) and expects respect for that at least..well,fact of the matter is that everyone else isnt necessarily only too scared to do such a thing,theyre also just not DUMB enuff to do it in a manner where they take on sumthing that theyre completely unprepared and ill-equipped for....i understand taking risks and getting outside ones comfort zone and yes i dont have the balls to take a shot like college gambler did...but really lets be honest,without any trace of a structure,plan or mental/emotional stability this is akin to a guy with his legs chopped off attempting to walk and predictably failing or sumone jumping out of a high rise building trying to fly.....no admiration or respect is due,just disbelief at the stupidity of the venture.
my dream is to play in the nba and i cud attempt to attend a pre-season summer league open workout but,due largely to the fact that im relatively old, fairly short and,relatively speaking,extremely unskilled at the game of basketball,i wud be ridiculed and cut immediately,if not sooner.....does this deserve respect and admiration????
and,even worse,if i had an endless stream of people advising me on how to get stronger,fitter,quicker and how to significantly up-skill to give even a tiny glimmer of a chance to even be looked at......and completely ignored each and every one of them is that gonna help my chances of being lauded for "taking my shot"???
makes zero sense to me that a guy expects folks to cheer him on and say "way to go big guy,go get em!!!" when there is close to zero probability on expectation of survival,let alone success.....which drops to less than zero if that is even possible when one takes this guys approach combined with his historical level of stubborn-ness
Wow, Melos. Rock solid post.
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Quote Originally Posted by melossinglet:
i dont get this,not one little bit...not one tiny,miniscule,microscopic,little bit...the guy goes on ad nauseum about how hes doing sumthing everyone else is too chicken-shiit to do by "chasing his dream" and doing it "his way"(and oh boy,is he ever doing it his way) and expects respect for that at least..well,fact of the matter is that everyone else isnt necessarily only too scared to do such a thing,theyre also just not DUMB enuff to do it in a manner where they take on sumthing that theyre completely unprepared and ill-equipped for....i understand taking risks and getting outside ones comfort zone and yes i dont have the balls to take a shot like college gambler did...but really lets be honest,without any trace of a structure,plan or mental/emotional stability this is akin to a guy with his legs chopped off attempting to walk and predictably failing or sumone jumping out of a high rise building trying to fly.....no admiration or respect is due,just disbelief at the stupidity of the venture.
my dream is to play in the nba and i cud attempt to attend a pre-season summer league open workout but,due largely to the fact that im relatively old, fairly short and,relatively speaking,extremely unskilled at the game of basketball,i wud be ridiculed and cut immediately,if not sooner.....does this deserve respect and admiration????
and,even worse,if i had an endless stream of people advising me on how to get stronger,fitter,quicker and how to significantly up-skill to give even a tiny glimmer of a chance to even be looked at......and completely ignored each and every one of them is that gonna help my chances of being lauded for "taking my shot"???
makes zero sense to me that a guy expects folks to cheer him on and say "way to go big guy,go get em!!!" when there is close to zero probability on expectation of survival,let alone success.....which drops to less than zero if that is even possible when one takes this guys approach combined with his historical level of stubborn-ness
“We all want progress, but if you're on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.”
? C. S. Lewis
I REALLY like this quote!
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Quote Originally Posted by Bluefin:
Progress...
“We all want progress, but if you're on the wrong road, progress means doing an about-turn and walking back to the right road; in that case, the man who turns back soonest is the most progressive.”
The thread will reformat once we get to the next page. It happens sometimes with big copy/pastes.
Bermax, does your system account at all for b2b road games?
No thanks for input.
After a quick calc that should only add about an 0.5-1.5 extra pointon average to the home team though according to my data. (Done pasting, take a look at the link)
The thread will reformat once we get to the next page. It happens sometimes with big copy/pastes.
Bermax, does your system account at all for b2b road games?
No thanks for input.
After a quick calc that should only add about an 0.5-1.5 extra pointon average to the home team though according to my data. (Done pasting, take a look at the link)
Putting all the other "off the court"/money management nonsense aside lets be real scal....
He throws darts, plain and simple. There is no method to the madness, no formula to cap games, no plan. He is an elementary capper at best who had a good run over a semi-decent sample size. I could flip a coin 100 times, and it could land on heads 65 times. Does that make me a good coin flip predictor?
I think he does cap the games (to a small degree in some instances and to a larger degree in others, like when he started the trip. I don't think he capped the Kings game at all and just sought out the biggest public fade.) I just think that he thinks a night out, MILF's, coke lines and whatever the hell us is being put up his nose is all A-ok along with his pick for several grand.
Why? Even if you do it blindly, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right of course.
Hence, not doing much work (correction, doing NO work at times) can yield just as much profit as the guy who does hours or even days of work (days meaning, waiting for a spot), and worse, the guy who does all the work can end up down the exact amount you are up (minus the vig) for doing no work.
I call it the 'Lebron effect'.
People see a guy so naturally gifted and all they want in life is perform anywhere near his level at anything while, and this is key, doing little to NO work.
The fact is, Lebron puts a significant amount of work into his craft.
It's guys like Shaq (self-admitted and called out publicly by Kobe) who did very little work, were gifted and still had enormous success. But look at his position and style...light years away from Lebron. He could get away with it underneath.
And please Shaq, save the "I regret leaving Orlando" when they put you in their Hall of Fame. You didn't regret it one bit when you signed with LA now you get all teary-eyed when they bring you back to honor you.
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Quote Originally Posted by rangerz2478:
Putting all the other "off the court"/money management nonsense aside lets be real scal....
He throws darts, plain and simple. There is no method to the madness, no formula to cap games, no plan. He is an elementary capper at best who had a good run over a semi-decent sample size. I could flip a coin 100 times, and it could land on heads 65 times. Does that make me a good coin flip predictor?
I think he does cap the games (to a small degree in some instances and to a larger degree in others, like when he started the trip. I don't think he capped the Kings game at all and just sought out the biggest public fade.) I just think that he thinks a night out, MILF's, coke lines and whatever the hell us is being put up his nose is all A-ok along with his pick for several grand.
Why? Even if you do it blindly, you have a 50/50 shot of getting it right of course.
Hence, not doing much work (correction, doing NO work at times) can yield just as much profit as the guy who does hours or even days of work (days meaning, waiting for a spot), and worse, the guy who does all the work can end up down the exact amount you are up (minus the vig) for doing no work.
I call it the 'Lebron effect'.
People see a guy so naturally gifted and all they want in life is perform anywhere near his level at anything while, and this is key, doing little to NO work.
The fact is, Lebron puts a significant amount of work into his craft.
It's guys like Shaq (self-admitted and called out publicly by Kobe) who did very little work, were gifted and still had enormous success. But look at his position and style...light years away from Lebron. He could get away with it underneath.
And please Shaq, save the "I regret leaving Orlando" when they put you in their Hall of Fame. You didn't regret it one bit when you signed with LA now you get all teary-eyed when they bring you back to honor you.
I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
So maybe it was worth the lost 363....
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I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
I think a lot bettors that cap by "feel", pick their bets first, then look for supporting documentation, stats, trends, angles, what have you. Which is why a lot of times, you'll see someone reference a particular trend or stat to support a pick, and then on other games blatantly ignore the same exact trend/stat, and say something like "that doesn't apply here", if anything.
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I think a lot bettors that cap by "feel", pick their bets first, then look for supporting documentation, stats, trends, angles, what have you. Which is why a lot of times, you'll see someone reference a particular trend or stat to support a pick, and then on other games blatantly ignore the same exact trend/stat, and say something like "that doesn't apply here", if anything.
He won everyone too much money so he stopped posting his picks. Just like the rest of us here. We all made people too much money posting our respective journeys, so we just stopped.
I hope this is sarcasm.
PM for the skinny on the down low
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Quote Originally Posted by lovethedough:
He won everyone too much money so he stopped posting his picks. Just like the rest of us here. We all made people too much money posting our respective journeys, so we just stopped.
I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
So maybe it was worth the lost 363....
Well, this is the one little part I disagree with Van on in the entire thread.
When you have that much on the line, buying .5 pt doesn't really buy it to down to 1 but essentially functions as a ML. Therefore, there is NO CHANCE for you to lose by the spread.
I've capped a million close games and even that sliver of .5 pt will be bothersome and I've lost some gigantic bets at the 1.5 pt spread by that extra half over my lifetime of betting.
Those bets have been so big, that buying down the .5 pt down is a bargain in comparison in the future....IF you don't do it that often and the math can dictate that.
It's not really buying the .5 pt per se. It's buying away a psychological impediment/fear that you could win the game as you capped it and still lose by the half. That is how a bettor thinks of it when a huge bet is riding on that game.
It happened to me this year in a Rutgers Michigan game where I waited weeks for Rutgers to get their first Big 10 win ever, knew they would get it, knew it would be very close, and a missed extra point by Rutgers ended the game with RU winning by 2 on a 2.5 pt spread. Crushed me.
Again, your posted odds on 'what you are actually buying 11-1/40-1/50-1' is correct but sometimes, when there is huge money on the line (and basically CG's entire trip/existence in Vegas rested in the balance), buying a half point down is a small price to pay for the larger picture (if you don't do it that often).
I know that sounds quite square but in very rare situations, I agree with what CG did on this bet and this bet only for this amount in this situation.
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Quote Originally Posted by BrewCrew7000:
I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
So maybe it was worth the lost 363....
Well, this is the one little part I disagree with Van on in the entire thread.
When you have that much on the line, buying .5 pt doesn't really buy it to down to 1 but essentially functions as a ML. Therefore, there is NO CHANCE for you to lose by the spread.
I've capped a million close games and even that sliver of .5 pt will be bothersome and I've lost some gigantic bets at the 1.5 pt spread by that extra half over my lifetime of betting.
Those bets have been so big, that buying down the .5 pt down is a bargain in comparison in the future....IF you don't do it that often and the math can dictate that.
It's not really buying the .5 pt per se. It's buying away a psychological impediment/fear that you could win the game as you capped it and still lose by the half. That is how a bettor thinks of it when a huge bet is riding on that game.
It happened to me this year in a Rutgers Michigan game where I waited weeks for Rutgers to get their first Big 10 win ever, knew they would get it, knew it would be very close, and a missed extra point by Rutgers ended the game with RU winning by 2 on a 2.5 pt spread. Crushed me.
Again, your posted odds on 'what you are actually buying 11-1/40-1/50-1' is correct but sometimes, when there is huge money on the line (and basically CG's entire trip/existence in Vegas rested in the balance), buying a half point down is a small price to pay for the larger picture (if you don't do it that often).
I know that sounds quite square but in very rare situations, I agree with what CG did on this bet and this bet only for this amount in this situation.
I think a lot bettors that cap by "feel", pick their bets first, then look for supporting documentation, stats, trends, angles, what have you. Which is why a lot of times, you'll see someone reference a particular trend or stat to support a pick, and then on other games blatantly ignore the same exact trend/stat, and say something like "that doesn't apply here", if anything.
True. True.
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Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
I think a lot bettors that cap by "feel", pick their bets first, then look for supporting documentation, stats, trends, angles, what have you. Which is why a lot of times, you'll see someone reference a particular trend or stat to support a pick, and then on other games blatantly ignore the same exact trend/stat, and say something like "that doesn't apply here", if anything.
I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
So maybe it was worth the lost 363....
I understand what you are saying, but that theory really just supports the fact that he probably shouldn't have been betting on a game that he knew might be very close in the end. Just because it makes watching the game slightly less stressful, it doesn't support it being a good financial decision going in.
Regarding buying hooks in basketball, I will just say this. It's not a good long term strategy, and most people that DO BUY the hook all the time usually reference a very weak sample size to support that decision, and I have yet to meet ANYONE that can give any substantial data proving that it's a good strategy, or at minimum, a negligible difference from just laying the standard (-110).
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Quote Originally Posted by BrewCrew7000:
I know this is going to sounds ridiculous, but it's not like that half a point was completely lost. It had value to CG. When the Spartans were up four at the end and Hield jacked up that 3, CG probably would've had a heart attack.
So maybe it was worth the lost 363....
I understand what you are saying, but that theory really just supports the fact that he probably shouldn't have been betting on a game that he knew might be very close in the end. Just because it makes watching the game slightly less stressful, it doesn't support it being a good financial decision going in.
Regarding buying hooks in basketball, I will just say this. It's not a good long term strategy, and most people that DO BUY the hook all the time usually reference a very weak sample size to support that decision, and I have yet to meet ANYONE that can give any substantial data proving that it's a good strategy, or at minimum, a negligible difference from just laying the standard (-110).
How did I lose $$$&$??? 4.8K for 4K and I'm about to go cash my ticket... The extra $400 I risked in vig I get back!! U don't lose that money!! Christ.... And hell yea I was happy I bought the half when I was up four and Buddy Heild shot that three... What if he made that then they fouled, Sparty wasent even in double bonus and I missed FT and win by one? Then all u bring up all these facts how that would have been a freak, etc, meanwhile my $ would have been gone. The CG knows exactly what he is doing
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How did I lose $$$&$??? 4.8K for 4K and I'm about to go cash my ticket... The extra $400 I risked in vig I get back!! U don't lose that money!! Christ.... And hell yea I was happy I bought the half when I was up four and Buddy Heild shot that three... What if he made that then they fouled, Sparty wasent even in double bonus and I missed FT and win by one? Then all u bring up all these facts how that would have been a freak, etc, meanwhile my $ would have been gone. The CG knows exactly what he is doing
I understand what you are saying, but that theory really just supports the fact that he probably shouldn't have been betting on a game that he knew might be very close in the end. Just because it makes watching the game slightly less stressful, it doesn't support it being a good financial decision going in.
Regarding buying hooks in basketball, I will just say this. It's not a good long term strategy, and most people that DO BUY the hook all the time usually reference a very weak sample size to support that decision, and I have yet to meet ANYONE that can give any substantial data proving that it's a good strategy, or at minimum, a negligible difference from just laying the standard (-110).
Not necessarily. I've bet on many games I thought would be very, very close (Havard Yale recently being one). But I essentially need a ML and you need to do a ton of research really pick your spots, which is CG's case, is not the case.
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Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
I understand what you are saying, but that theory really just supports the fact that he probably shouldn't have been betting on a game that he knew might be very close in the end. Just because it makes watching the game slightly less stressful, it doesn't support it being a good financial decision going in.
Regarding buying hooks in basketball, I will just say this. It's not a good long term strategy, and most people that DO BUY the hook all the time usually reference a very weak sample size to support that decision, and I have yet to meet ANYONE that can give any substantial data proving that it's a good strategy, or at minimum, a negligible difference from just laying the standard (-110).
Not necessarily. I've bet on many games I thought would be very, very close (Havard Yale recently being one). But I essentially need a ML and you need to do a ton of research really pick your spots, which is CG's case, is not the case.
How did I lose $$$&$??? 4.8K for 4K and I'm about to go cash my ticket... The extra $400 I risked in vig I get back!! U don't lose that money!! Christ.... And hell yea I was happy I bought the half when I was up four and Buddy Heild shot that three... What if he made that then they fouled, Sparty wasent even in double bonus and I missed FT and win by one? Then all u bring up all these facts how that would have been a freak, etc, meanwhile my $ would have been gone. The CG knows exactly what he is doing
Because, If I risked the same amount as you, $4800, but decided to not buy the hook and play it at (-110), I would be getting back $4363 profit, not $4000. $363 more than you. That's how you "lost" money.
Ignorance is bliss.
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Quote Originally Posted by collegegambler:
How did I lose $$$&$??? 4.8K for 4K and I'm about to go cash my ticket... The extra $400 I risked in vig I get back!! U don't lose that money!! Christ.... And hell yea I was happy I bought the half when I was up four and Buddy Heild shot that three... What if he made that then they fouled, Sparty wasent even in double bonus and I missed FT and win by one? Then all u bring up all these facts how that would have been a freak, etc, meanwhile my $ would have been gone. The CG knows exactly what he is doing
Because, If I risked the same amount as you, $4800, but decided to not buy the hook and play it at (-110), I would be getting back $4363 profit, not $4000. $363 more than you. That's how you "lost" money.
Not necessarily. I've bet on many games I thought would be very, very close (Havard Yale recently being one). But I essentially need a ML and you need to do a ton of research really pick your spots, which is CG's case, is not the case.
To each his own, obviously. I just choose to pass in those cases. If you were to buy from -1.5 (-110) to ML (-120), then you are getting a full point for ten cents, so in those cases there is more value than the standard "buying the hook".
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Not necessarily. I've bet on many games I thought would be very, very close (Havard Yale recently being one). But I essentially need a ML and you need to do a ton of research really pick your spots, which is CG's case, is not the case.
To each his own, obviously. I just choose to pass in those cases. If you were to buy from -1.5 (-110) to ML (-120), then you are getting a full point for ten cents, so in those cases there is more value than the standard "buying the hook".
Because, If I risked the same amount as you, $4800, but decided to not buy the hook and play it at (-110), I would be getting back $4363 profit, not $4000. $363 more than you. That's how you "lost" money.
Ignorance is bliss.
I have a new system, it's called the 3.5-6.5-13.5. It's essentially the proven 3-6-13 but you buy half a point so all the earnings from the 3-6-13 are increased by 50% as you get the vig back every time you win. You should try it, it goes well with inverse exponential progressive percentage staking aka "Tall Boy staking".
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Quote Originally Posted by bk1374:
Because, If I risked the same amount as you, $4800, but decided to not buy the hook and play it at (-110), I would be getting back $4363 profit, not $4000. $363 more than you. That's how you "lost" money.
Ignorance is bliss.
I have a new system, it's called the 3.5-6.5-13.5. It's essentially the proven 3-6-13 but you buy half a point so all the earnings from the 3-6-13 are increased by 50% as you get the vig back every time you win. You should try it, it goes well with inverse exponential progressive percentage staking aka "Tall Boy staking".
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I REALLY like this quote!
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