Linda winning sw19 has moved from 80 to 1 a couple days ago to 50 to 1 now. I would expect that number to shrink a little more. Good value when you compare her to other players in that range. Probably one of the most underrated players over past couple years as far as public perception is concerned.
Obviously I like Noskova to BRING IT and win SW19 but I thought I'd dig deeper into why I particularly like the young Czech to prevail over the veteran.
This will obviously be a big moment for both players. This will be Linda's first major final while Muchova has been to a grand slam final before although she lost. This can be considered somewhat of a breakout year for both players. For Muchova she's not a true breakout as she's had plenty of success on tour previously but this year is the year where she's finally been able to get over the hump and win some big titles. Prior to this season Karolina had a reputation for failing to show up in the big moments and carried a paltry 1-6 record in finals along with numerous other semifinal heartbreaks. Also, she was often visibly rattled in high pressure situations in the past. She finally got over the hump and earned her biggest title of her career in Doha and followed that up with her recent title in Bad Homburg. As we saw against Gauff, the pressure still has a tendency to get to her a bit but credit to her for being able to fight through it.
Noskova had a chance for a breakout season last year but she herself struggled mightily in the big moments as she found it difficult to manage the pressure of the big stage. She failed to convert finals into titles in Prague, Beijing, and Tokyo, putting her tour level finals record at 1-5 entering this season. However, as I mentioned at the time she seemed to put those problems to rest during her recent title win in Berlin as she played a really clean match against the steady handed Jessica Pegula. Both players can potentially be succeptable to the pressure but both have also recently shown the ability to be resilient in light of the pressure, so under the spotlight of a grand slam final I have the players rated as practically even in their ability to handle the big moment.
The biggest question for Karolina Muchova is if she can figure out how to make a significant push into the Noskova service games, something that has proven to be very difficult for previous opponents. Linda has been clinical on serve and on grass this year she has seen significant improvement in nearly every major statistical category. Her 1stIn% is up along with 1stWon% & 2ndWon%. Her hold rate on grass this year is 86%, which is nearly 2 full points higher than Elena Rybakina, the tour leader.
Against Kostyuk she allowed only a single break point opportunity and was taken to deuce in only one other service game. Six of her ten service games were won to love or 15. Marta was visibly frustrated and complaining to her coach that even after being well into the second set she was still unable to get a read on Noskova's serve. This says a lot coming from Kostyuk who had been red hot coming in winning 21 of her last 22 and herself is statistically the 3rd best returner on tour.
Noskova is obviously an elite level server but the same cannot be said about her return game, statistically at least. However she can still be extremely dangerous on return as well as very aggressive. She's not afraid to take big swings at balls into the open court and even bigger swings rocketing the ball straight at her opponent's feet, giving them little or no time to react to the raw power. Because of this, an opponent might miss their spot on a second serve or two and all of the sudden find themselves in deep water. And if she snatches that one break you might have to go ahead and kiss the set goodbye as well.
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