My dying days

I have been flagged as a potentially influenced bettor. Or someone with additional prior knowledge. While that would be super funkin cool, that ain’t the case. I would have capitalized and left sports betting behind me with a happy smile on my face if that were true. I make this post to share with you that my days of sports betting might be coming to an end. I’ve refrained from sharing picks because of superstition. A foolish notion we as gamblers carry with us to help us sleep at night.

With that said, I share with you what might be some of my final plays. Tail at your own risk. I never thought my plays stood out or were anything worth noting but I have a feeling I won’t be a member of the sports betting community soon. So I put these out here as a thank you to all those who shared their insight in hopes that you can make a few extra bucks and keep playing this fun game of beat the books.

Sinner/Alcaraz O39.5

My play is actually O36.5 which is the second leg of a short parlay with Iga -1.5 games today.

Neither of these guys are in absolute dominant form and they have an amazing history of battles point to point between them. Both guys will waiver when ahead in fear of the formidable player behind them attacking to comeback and both players will fight back with great athleticism and tact. This has 5 setter written all over it and I think Alcaraz makes history tomorrow at the end of it. That’s not something I’m willing to bet on but 4 sets of single breaks with at least one set with extra innings seems almost inevitable.

GL all. 

Flagged by who? This site?

@HuskyNation1

 I make most of my plays at a casino close to where I work. I handed in my latest ticket and an additional cashier and security dude came over. Staring at me like I robbed the queen of her virginity. The cashier I handed my stub to asked if I’ve been banned before. I had to give a thumbs up for their cameras.

I told em if I had any additional knowledge I wouldn’t be betting $200, I’d max out my mortgage equity. They giggled but also took it pretty serious.

Also the idea of influence is hilarious to me. like what… I’m gonna tell Ben Shelton to tank a set for $100? I’m not making 20:1 on a dog in challengers it’s a short parlay on statistical favourite lines here.

Maybe this happens to everyone but my gut tells me otherwise.

I have been banned from more physical bookmakers than I care to count - if they are soft enough they ban you the first time you bet an arbitrage bet or a sleeping steamer - and they will often not state the correct reason for your ban 

The correct reason is basically always the same - “you winning too much” or “you doing something that will make you win too much over time” but those two reasons don’t sound that well for a ban - so if they give you a reason it will often be something else - if they suspected you of match fixing or any other illegal conduct - it would be the police contacting you and investigating you - the bookmaker wouldn’t tell you 

@AverageAllstar

 You gave yourself away when you went like 43-1 during the 2024 French Open. 

@bringit

That was a good run. Those day’s I’m gonna miss. 

You know… it wouldn’t be so bad if that’s how they’d put it. At least I could say the books said I can’t bet there because I’m too good at it instead of, they think I’m a cheater. If I was a cheater I’d be rich.

my only question is are you normally a loser. tells me which way to go here lol 

I was mostly thinking about how it would come across to other bettors. "We only want you here if you don't win too much," said in an establishment largely run on the hopes and dreams of people striking it big one day. But you can be pretty certain that's the real reason. If they suspected you of cheating, they would have to report it to the police because it would be a criminal offense. Match-fixing allegations aren't handled in the back room of a bookmaker's establishment. If that were known, they didn't hand over information like that - it would be shut down the day after. The only way their story would hold up is if you accidentally bet on a fixed or ghost match. I have tried that before, but that isn't illegal or can't get you in much trouble. They often just give you a warning or void the bet if it's something that happens rarely, which it naturally will if you don't actively seek to take part in it - it happens most often in matches on the "future" level - so if you want to be 100% certain you can stay away from them for a while 

Play online now 

My book jacked it to 42 lol 

@Blb

 Damn… Sell some games and pay the chalk? This is a 4 setter for sure. I took 36.5 at -180.

GL

@PayMeHardRock

 My books now process my online wagers through a “trader” and they wont take my full wagers. They also haven’t sent me a bonus in over 6 months. You can just tell they’re doing whatever they can to limit/end my wagering.

im a greedy + odds better exclusively almost. 

6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 has got to be the lowest game total. But even that’s a stretch. These guys can both hold so well. There has to be a 7-5 or TB at least once this match.

Sinner/Alcaraz O39.5 

If you are very good at this there is only one way long-term - and that is the unregulated market primarily the Asian market or the betting exchanges (if you have any of those over in US) - I know unregulated might sound worse than it is - but their turnover is out of this world big - so they wouldn't risk their image and word-of-mouth to cheat anyone - and their model is built on turnover rather than taking sides in a match (I have actually been cheated more by regulated western bookmakers than them) also when you move big figures around

@AverageAllstar

 Nice analysis... Sinner gets ahead in the first set then waivers and loses it. Then Alcaraz is ahead and waivers and loses the next 3. Also getting to 40 games is very nice (and unlikely) in a 4 set match with no 12 or 13 game sets.

Since this was a total bet did you have to pay off both players to fix it? I'm thinking that must've cost you $250 each at least since it was Wimbledon final. Maybe even $300...

Could you imagine…

Hey Carlos/Jannick. Good luck to both of you at the Wimbledon final. I know this is something you’ve both dreamed if since you started playing tennis. Quick question, I got $200 on the over, think you guys could chop the first two sets by a single break for your old pal? I’ll send ya a couple bucks if you do. I don’t think the books will be paying much attention on this match. Nothing to worry about.

@AverageAllstar

 Waiting for your next play bro

I’m on Pacheco Mendez tonight. +180

Colton Smith Live at +115 is a decent deal.

Smith about to finish with his worst service performance of the year and 3-4 matches worth of UFE’s against a 400th ranked fellow American. Bit smelly.

…. and considering how sloppy this dudes footwork is, this is a match where Smith should have won in straight sets. Maybe he just partied in Mexico like an irresponsible 20 year old something.