Posted:
#101
Queens
Karolina Pliskova (+160)
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Den Bosch
Here's to another good day!
Posted:
#107
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
Solana Sierra -3.5 (-110) We have in form Sierra, who made a run to the 4th round at Wimbledon last year, against Stinky Iga who has played one career match on grass (a loss to the legendary enigma Carson Branstine in case you forgot, but how could you).
Solana Sierra -3.5 (-110) We have in form Sierra, who made a run to the 4th round at Wimbledon last year, against Stinky Iga who has played one career match on grass (a loss to the legendary enigma Carson Branstine in case you forgot, but how could you).
she sold so badly, I thought I won after 5-2 and she lost her serve what a disappointment she is
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Posted:
#109
@Tittylankaluver
It's so weird, I couldn't believe it opened that tight. And now the market has moved it towards where I expected it would open. There have been some other weird lines this week too that don't seem to account for the surface. For instance Pliskova and Vekic today. Also Sierra opened way tighter before it got steamed. Her opening spread would've won today too.
I like Cristian but those opening odds were definitely way off and I'm not surprised there was a market correction. For reference, when they met a couple months ago on clay Cristian closed at +120. No way her odds should be similar on grass.
It's an interesting match for sure. I typically look for spots to fade her during grass season so I never would have been looking to back her in this tournament until I watched her last match. So I guess the question is was the Zheng match a one hit wonder or has her grass game actually developed? Kind of like when Paolini had never won a main draw match on grass until the year she made a run to the Wimbledon final.
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Posted:
#110
Granny Maria has seen some steam too. Last week her and her husband/coach had publicly voiced their frustrations with Queen's Club denying her request for a wildcard and most of the tennis community seems to share that sentiment. Outside of the major titles, her title here was one of the stories of the year last year. To win your biggest title at that age and to go through the best of the best doing so was remarkable. Look how much tougher her draw was compared to say Andreeva at Roland Garros. And to not give her a wildcard is crazy. Think about it, she has massive points to defend and they couldn't even gift her those first round points instead of making her earn it in quallies? Would have been a shame if she went out in quallies but maybe that's what the tournament would have preferred anyways so they could have the big names in the final.
So basically Granny is playing with a chip on her shoulder. And her playing style works great on grass. She has never been a world beater but she has consistently had better results on grass than any other surface. And I think her style is actually tougher for the top players who are not as used to dealing with junk balls. So the Rybakina match is one to watch for sure.
Also these 500s with the byes seem to consistently provide value opportunities on the player who is already well acclimated to the surface and conditions. Rybakina will be trying to find her grass legs after a long clay season while Maria will be playing her 6th match on grass.
1
Posted:
#111
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
Granny Maria has seen some steam too. Last week her and her husband/coach had publicly voiced their frustrations with Queen's Club denying her request for a wildcard and most of the tennis community seems to share that sentiment. Outside of the major titles, her title here was one of the stories of the year last year. To win your biggest title at that age and to go through the best of the best doing so was remarkable. Look how much tougher her draw was compared to say Andreeva at Roland Garros. And to not give her a wildcard is crazy. Think about it, she has massive points to defend and they couldn't even gift her those first round points instead of making her earn it in quallies? Would have been a shame if she went out in quallies but maybe that's what the tournament would have preferred anyways so they could have the big names in the final. So basically Granny is playing with a chip on her shoulder. And her playing style works great on grass. She has never been a world beater but she has consistently had better results on grass than any other surface. And I think her style is actually tougher for the top players who are not as used to dealing with junk balls. So the Rybakina match is one to watch for sure. Also these 500s with the byes seem to consistently provide value opportunities on the player who is already well acclimated to the surface and conditions. Rybakina will be trying to find her grass legs after a long clay season while Maria will be playing her 6th match on grass.
Bringit the odds suggest Maria w/a 20% chance at the upset ... what chance are you giving her might I ask Granny Maria has seen some steam too. Last week her and her husband/coach had publicly voiced their frustrations with Queen's Club denying her request for a wildcard and most of the tennis community seems to share that sentiment. Outside of the major titles, her title here was one of the stories of the year last year. To win your biggest title at that age and to go through the best of the best doing so was remarkable. Look how much tougher her draw was compared to say Andreeva at Roland Garros. And to not give her a wildcard is crazy. Think about it, she has massive points to defend and they couldn't even gift her those first round points instead of making her earn it in quallies? Would have been a shame if she went out in quallies but maybe that's what the tournament would have preferred anyways so they could have the big names in the final. So basically Granny is playing with a chip on her shoulder. And her playing style works great on grass. She has never been a world beater but she has consistently had better results on grass than any other surface. And I think her style is actually tougher for the top players who are not as used to dealing with junk balls. So the Rybakina match is one to watch for sure. Also these 500s with the byes seem to consistently provide value opportunities on the player who is already well acclimated to the surface and conditions. Rybakina will be trying to find her grass legs after a long clay season while Maria will be playing her 6th match on grass.
??
"I Bleed Orange and Blue..."
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Posted:
#113
@PAbronco
I would say 35%. But once the match starts I believe we will be able to get a much better idea of how well Rybakina will be able to deal with the slices this time around or if she has a better strategy for countering Maria's style.
One of the issues Rybakina has is that she is so lanky and with the unpredictable bounce of Maria's balls she can struggle to get into proper position leading to errors. I don't know if there's something she can do to overcome this but if she does come out seemingly doing something different and isn't having trouble it may be best to lay off. But if it's anything like last year the errors should come early and often.
After this draw came out Rybakina entered a late entry into Bad Homburg. So unlike other top players she's playing all of the big grass warmups and the idea is that after a two week break she is trying to get into the best rhythm possible before Wimbledon and perhaps the motivation for adding another tournament to her schedule is the very real possibility of only going one and done here.
Also something I can guarantee is that all of these top players went to bed last night with images of Mboko's fall haunting their dreams and that will be sometime they are cognizant of in these tournaments especially with damp conditions. So any hesitancy in movement or avoidance of quick cuts on the slick surface could further benefit Maria.
You could argue that Rybakina will be motivated to seek revenge tomorrow but with her honestly I think she is absolutely dreading this match and she could be most motivated just to get it over with.
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Posted:
#117
Quote Originally Posted by bringit:
@PAbronco I would say 35%. But once the match starts I believe we will be able to get a much better idea of how well Rybakina will be able to deal with the slices this time around or if she has a better strategy for countering Maria's style. One of the issues Rybakina has is that she is so lanky and with the unpredictable bounce of Maria's balls she can struggle to get into proper position leading to errors. I don't know if there's something she can do to overcome this but if she does come out seemingly doing something different and isn't having trouble it may be best to lay off. But if it's anything like last year the errors should come early and often. After this draw came out Rybakina entered a late entry into Bad Homburg. So unlike other top players she's playing all of the big grass warmups and the idea is that after a two week break she is trying to get into the best rhythm possible before Wimbledon and perhaps the motivation for adding another tournament to her schedule is the very real possibility of only going one and done here. Also something I can guarantee is that all of these top players went to bed last night with images of Mboko's fall haunting their dreams and that will be sometime they are cognizant of in these tournaments especially with damp conditions. So any hesitancy in movement or avoidance of quick cuts on the slick surface could further benefit Maria. You could argue that Rybakina will be motivated to seek revenge tomorrow but with her honestly I think she is absolutely dreading this match and she could be most motivated just to get it over with.
Thanks m8 I saw that Rybakina is entered into 3 leadups to Wimbledon don't know how or why that will affect her psyche ... I am going to follow you here for $50 @PAbronco I would say 35%. But once the match starts I believe we will be able to get a much better idea of how well Rybakina will be able to deal with the slices this time around or if she has a better strategy for countering Maria's style. One of the issues Rybakina has is that she is so lanky and with the unpredictable bounce of Maria's balls she can struggle to get into proper position leading to errors. I don't know if there's something she can do to overcome this but if she does come out seemingly doing something different and isn't having trouble it may be best to lay off. But if it's anything like last year the errors should come early and often. After this draw came out Rybakina entered a late entry into Bad Homburg. So unlike other top players she's playing all of the big grass warmups and the idea is that after a two week break she is trying to get into the best rhythm possible before Wimbledon and perhaps the motivation for adding another tournament to her schedule is the very real possibility of only going one and done here. Also something I can guarantee is that all of these top players went to bed last night with images of Mboko's fall haunting their dreams and that will be sometime they are cognizant of in these tournaments especially with damp conditions. So any hesitancy in movement or avoidance of quick cuts on the slick surface could further benefit Maria. You could argue that Rybakina will be motivated to seek revenge tomorrow but with her honestly I think she is absolutely dreading this match and she could be most motivated just to get it over with.
"I Bleed Orange and Blue..."
0
Posted:
#118
If you are not already on Vekic I do think this is a good opportunity to take her live at +100.
To me she has looked like the better player so far and definitely looks more natural on grass than her opponent. She already served for the set once and couldn't close it out, so that's a negative. But that seems like ages ago now so it's not like that's something that will affect her mentally today.
And possibly more importantly Bouzkova is in a really difficult position here. She essentially has to walk on court and immediately serve to stay in the set. This is why many of the ladies choose to receive when they win the coin toss. They don't want to have to serve while the anxiety is high at the start of a match and would rather have a return game first to help calm their nerves before having to defend their serve.
No such luck for Bouzkova. She is immediately thrust into the most pressure packed service game of the set. Would not surprise me at all to see her broken right out of the gate today, or tomorrow, next week, or whenever they resume this match.
0
Posted:
#119
I don't recommend over doing it but I'm also going to take a small stab on Vekic to win game 12 (+248).
It's just too much of a situational spot not to. It's the opening service game of the day and the service game to stay in the set, two of the most nervy service games in tennis, combined into one. Vekic has already been able to get the break once and she has had some time to get acclimated to her serve. And it's priced like any regular service game.
Not exactly the same because it wasn't the end of the set but Boulter was in a similar high pressure situation in the middle of set 2 the other day and she was broken right out of the gates.
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Posted:
#123
I should mention there was a converted rain delay special this morning. I had a feeling this might happen but sadly I did not fire as at that time I was wary of investing in another potential never ending match.
Snigur was down a break in the 3rd, I think it was 2-4 when play stopped. Odds were just above +200 for most off the delay although later on I did see them drop just below 200 at some places which tells me perhaps others are catching on to our little scheme.
Before the delay this was a hard fought back and forth battle but of course this morning Snigur just strolls out there and reels off 4 straight games like it's nothing and boom game over for Panna.
1
Posted:
#124
I put 90 on Panna pre match.
After some consideration I decided to take the -245 I believe and cashed for almost a 3x payday.
I rarely cash out early but more so in tennis and especially when the momentum was favoring Panna to close it out.
I took your advice and bet Vekic. However I parlayed it with your other choice of Pliskova. I ended up cashing that as well and kept the money riding in Vekic. Do you think I should add more at less value than the original or wait and see how it plays out?
She was up 5-2 at one point. She has some rest.
Thank you for some of your insights and wisdom.
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Posted:
#125
Random thoughts about Den Bosch tomorrow:
Sonmez has the grass game to give Magda some struggles. The price is right so this match is probably one to look into.
I watched Ruse this morning and boy was her serve on point. She made it very difficult for Mertens to make any inroads on her serve. She was broken once in the first set but for the most part she faced very little adversity on serve as 6 of her 9 service games were won to either love or 15. Mertens really tried to amp up the pressure during her final two service games of the match and ended up creating a total of 7 break point opportunities but Ruse saved every one of them.
Ruse has a nice pedigree on grass and she was actually the runner-up here last year and lost to Mertens in final so today was a revenge match as well. Ruse is your classic inconsistent player who on her good days can go toe to toe with pretty much anyone. This can be a good trait for us because it creates opportunities to back her at good prices when her game is on and my opinion right now is that her game is certainly on. Obviously the Wimbledon champ will be a tough order for her but that is definitely a match that is screaming over.
The Snigur Montgomery match is similar to the Minnen match today. Two players with similar levels who both excel on grass. Snigur's last match went three sets and even though her first match stayed under the total it did go to a tiebreak in the second set. Going back to qualifying Montgomery has gone over the total in all four of her matches including a couple two set overs. Also she has played a total of 4 tiebreaks across 4 matches as well as another 12 game set. So over seems to be the play here.
Last thing, if you are looking for another rain delay special I DO NOT recommend Sierra.
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