ATP Cincinnati

I'll have a draw preview later tonight, but wanted to put this out there with a match still to come tonight.

ATP Cincinnati
For many players, this is the final tune-up for the U.S. Open. As you would expect, the winner's list at the Western & Southern Open reads as a who's who among the top tier players. Roger Federer has won the title in Cincy six times and is the defending champion. Andy Murray has won here twice in 2008 and 2011. The one notable omission  among the champions all-time at this event is Novak Djokovic. Surprisingly, Djokovic has never won this event. That isn't a typo and it isn't because he skips this event a lot. Djokovic has played Cincinnati every year since 2005. He has made the final four times, but has not been to the final since 2012 when he lost to Roger Federer. Djokovic is your top seed this week with a 22-10 record in Cincy.

Roger Federer has rarely not played well this week with a 37-8 mark all-time. He has failed to make the final just twice since 2009. Third seeded Andy Murray is 24-8 in Cincy. The last three years however have been unkind to the Scot. He has not advanced past the quarterfinal round since 2011. The fourth seed this week is Kei Nishikori who only has five matches under his belt all-time at this tournament. Nishikori was worn out at the end of the Rogers Cup, so this may not be his week to reverse that trend. Rounding out the top eight seeds are Stan Wawrinka, Tomas Berdych, Marin Cilic and Rafael Nadal. Nadal won this event in 2013, but none of the other seeds from fifth to eighth have advanced further than the semis in Cincinnati. Of the seeds from nine to 16, John Isner has had the best success here at 10-7 with a finals appearance in 2013 against Nadal.

This can be a tricky week for all players involved. Even with a week in between the end of this tournament and the start of the U.S. Open, many will weight fitness concerns versus gaining form. As such, seeds are prone to tapping out early in some cases. Over the past five years, there has been an average of about five seeds dropping their first matches at the Western & Southern Open. Last year was the lowest number from that stretch with only three losing early. In three of the last five years, the number has been at least five with two years seeing six seeds drop out early. So with an eye to who might be in danger of dropping out in their first match among the seeds, let's find the more likely candidates.

#4 Kei Nishikori
Nishikori has to be on this list after seeing how fatigued he looked in getting routed by Andy Murray in the Rogers Cup semifinals on Saturday. Nishikori gets the winner of Sergiy Stakhovksy vs. Bernard Tomic. Tomic looks likely if he keeps his composure again this week. That of course is always iffy, but he has beaten Stakhovsky twice in their careers. Nishikori owns two wins over the Aussie, the last coming in Brisbane at the start of the season. If healthy and rested, Nishikori should win here. Given the end to his run in Montreal, that isn't a given.

#5 Stan Wawrinka
Another possible health question here. Wawrinka retired amid the whole #BangGate flap with Nick Kyrgios at the Rogers Cup with a supposed back injury. It should be simple to see if that was legitimate in his first match. He gets a bye and then faces Borna Coric or a qualifier. Wawrinka has only had one huge run in Cincy, making the semis in 2012. Last year, he made the quarters losing to unseeded Julien Benneteau.

#6 Tomas Berdych
Berdych faces either Thomaz Bellucci or Jiri Vesely. He looked rusty in Montreal, dropping his first match since Wimbledon to Donald Young 7-6, 6-3. That included blowing a massive lead in the first set. Berdych dropped his first-up in Cincy last year, so it's not all that far fetched that he could do it again. This pre-U.S. Open buildup hasn't always been the best time of year for him the last three years or so. Bellucci can be surprising on this surface and looks a better shot that Vesely who has yet to transition to hard courts.

#7 Marin Cilic
Just when it looked like Cilic was set to rise in the lead-up to defending the U.S. Open, he's taken a turn for the worse. He looked lost in the final two sets losing to Kei Nishikori at the Citi Open. He followed that up with a straight sets loss to Tomic at the Rogers Cup. He's played decently at this tournament, making the quarters last year. Still, a first match against Joao Sousa or Philipp Kohlschreiber with the pressure starting to mount could be a recipe for a shocker. Kohlschreiber owns five wins in eight meetings with Cilic.

#8 Rafael Nadal
Nadal seemed to have found some decent form in the Rogers Cup last week, but got blasted by Kei Nishikori in the quarterfinals 6-2, 6-4. He could face Montreal's surprise package in Jeremy Chardy in his first match in Cincinnati since 2013. Chardy made a nice run to the semis, but didn't have to face a quality returner until Djokovic beat him in the semis. Chardy opens against Rajeev Ram. Consistency isn't always his strong suit, but that is a winnable match. Nadal vs. Chardy would be very intriguing and on this quick surface, Chardy could give Rafa some trouble.

#9 Milos Raonic
Another case of rust as the Canadian did not look ready for prime time in his opening loss to Ivo Karlovic last week in Montreal. This week, he has to face Feliciano Lopez to open. Lopez has played him tough in five career matches, winning twice. Their last match was at this year's Australian Open where Raonic survived in five sets to advance to the quarterfinals. Lopez isn't always interested this time of year before the next Grand Slam and has lost his first match in Cincy four of the last six times he's been there. Still, Raonic is short on match play and Lopez has shown the ability to trouble him if he's motivated.

#10 Gilles Simon
This is an easy one as Simon will face Ivo Karlovic on this fast surface in Cincinnati. Simon does over three wins over Karlovic in five encounters, but none have come in the past four years. Simon has had some modest success in Cincy, but has lost his first match here twice in the last four years. The plus for him is that Karlovic has never done much here either, but this is an Ivo who is locked into some good form. An upset seems very possible.

#11 John Isner
Isner finally ran out of gas in Montreal to Jeremy Chardy in the quarterfinals. It was a lengthy three set match featuring three tie breaks. Isner was hobbled by a left knee injury and has played a heavy schedule this summer. This could be a week where he would benefit from not playing a ton of tennis to get rested for the U.S. Open. He faces Sam Querrey to open. Querrey has been in so-so form, but holds a 3-1 advantage over Isner. He beat him earlier this year on an indoor surface in Memphis. I like Querrey to win this one with Isner better off resting himself.

#12 Richard Gasquet
Gasquet withdrew last week from the Rogers Cup due to an unspecified illness. That makes him a question mark this week with a tough first match against the talk of the tennis world, Nick Kyrgios. With the off-court distraction from #BangGate still out there, this should be a week for Kyrgios to maximize his focus on-court. Gasquet has beaten him three out of four times they have met, including twice this year. This will be their first hard court meeting however. Gasquet has lost his last two trips to Cincy in his first match to big servers in John Isner and Milos Raonic. It's the Aussie's Cincy debut. These courts play fast, so if Kyrgios can concentrate on tennis, I think he's got a real shot to score the win.

#14 Gael Monfils
Monfils' trip to Cincinnati last season was his first since 2011. He had a decent run, winning a couple of matches before dropping out in the third round to Federer. He gets Jerzy Janowicz who dropped him in the Australian Open this year. Janowicz remains in average form at-best, but the conditions may give him the ability to spring an upset if he finds some consistency on serve.

#16 Grigor Dimitrov
A regular on this list, but it's warranted until be brings some consistency to his game. The best news for Dimitrov this past week was his decision to link up with Swede Johan Ortegren for the remainder of 2015. The bad news is Dimitrov still has looked poor this summer on hard courts with a 2-2 mark. He lost in Montreal to Jack Sock. The shoulder problem he suffered in D.C. a couple of weeks ago still appears to possibly be affecting his serve some, so that bears watching. He opens Sunday night against Lukas Rosol. Dimitrov dropped his first match in Cincy last year to Janowicz. Rosol might not be the most consistent performer, but he grabbed a scalp of Kevin Anderson last week in the opening round in Montreal. He may be able to repeat that if Dimitrov doesn't find his best tennis right away this week.

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Also, In Cincinnati, seeds are usually heavily involved in the business end of the tournament from the quarterfinals onward. Only once since 2010 has there been less than six seeds in the quarters. Interestingly though, the nonseeds who make the quarters have a habit of advancing to the semis. Four of the last five years in Cincinnati, a nonseed has been in the semifinals. Your top seed at the Western & Southern Open has also not been involved in the mix at the semifinal stage three of the last five years. With Djokovic possibly nursing a recurring arm issue, that may mean he won't be around again late in this tournament.

8.16.15
Rosol +1.5 Sets @ -115

Actually it's -105, so there we go.

Is there anywhere to watch Cincinnati matches tonight?

Nishikori withdrew this morning

Not sure. Rosol is hot garbage so far.

happen to have a link to watch this match?

There we go. 2nd set to Rosol and a winner to start the tourney. Be back in a bit with the draw preview.

Cincinnati Masters Draw Preview

First Quarter: Novak Djokovic (1)
Djokovic enters the week off a tough loss to Andy Murray on Sunday and with a small injury concern. Djokovic told reporters this past week about a recurring elbow issue that required some treatment during his Rogers Cup run. As spelled out earlier, Djokovic has never won this event so it is difficult to like him this week. In the top half of this quarter, he leads the way with Gilles Muller or Lucky Loser Benoit Paire up in the second round. Neither possesses the requisite consistency to trouble Djokovic, but the World #1 will bear watching early this week to see how fit he is. The seed opposite in this half is #13 David Goffin who could take advantage. Goffin opens with Yen-Hsun Lu. Goffin won their only meeting two years ago at the Citi Open. The winner there takes on the survivor of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Fernando Verdasco. Tsonga owns a 4-2 advantage head-to-head, but they have not met since 2013. Tsonga was good in Montreal, but rarely has played Cincy. He is 1-3 here and lost his first match two of his three trips to the Midwest. Verdasco could improve after losing in three sets last week to Nick Kyrgios in his first match back on hard courts since the Spring. I think an upset is possible. If Djokovic is healthy and wanting to get more matches, he still is the class here and should be in the quarters. If not, I think Goffin is the logical choice to move through here in a fairly open section opposite of Djokovic.

The bottom half of the quarter is led by fifth seeded Stan Wawrinka and tenth seed Gilles Simon. In the top half, Simon is an early exit candidate against Ivo Karlovic. The winner there will get Martin Klizan who pulled off an upset win in a third set tie break against Dominic Thiem on Sunday. Wawrinka has the first round bye and then takes on Borna Coric of qualifier Alexander Zverev. Wawrinka is always a tough case in non-Slams. Last week was obviously full of even odder circumstance with the Nick Kyrgios "sledge." There is also the question of whether the back injury he claimed to have forced him out of the Kyrgios match is legitimate. If it is, Coric of Zverev could have a huge opportunity in this part of the draw. Having made it through qualifying, give Zverev the edge against Coric in what could be a glimpse of a great future rivalry. Zverev has shown well this summer with a quarterfinal run in Washington, D.C., while Coric is still learning this surface. This looks like it could be one of those sections that opens for a non-seed to make the quarters. Karlovic seems more likely, but don't discount Zverev if Wawrinka is truly hurt.

Second Quarter: Tomas Berdych (6)
Berdych becomes the highest seed in this quarter with the withdrawal of Kei Nishikori due to a hip injury. Alexandr Dolgopolov slides into Nishikori's cushy spot in the top half of the quarter, while Berdych is the leading seed in the bottom half. Starting with Berdych, the Czech won't have an easy time to open against Bellucci or Vesely. Vesely might be the easier option. Bellucci has played Berdych tough earlier in their careers, so watch out for an upset. Also in this half, it's an All-American affair to open with 11th seed John Isner against Sam Querrey. That seems like a prime scalp opportunity for Querrey with Isner hobbled with a knee issue late last week in Montreal. The winner then gets one of two Spaniards, Pablo Andujar or Tommy Robredo. Robredo made a big splash last summer in Cincy by knocking out top seed Novak Djokovic in the third round. Andujar won't be an easy out, but this part of the quarter looks open for a non-seed like Querrey, Andujar or Robredo to take advantage of a less than 100 percent Isner. Berdych has had some good runs in Cincy, both coming in odd years. In 2011 and 2013, he made the semifinals at this tournament. If he can get off to a good start, he might have a shot to at least get into the quarters.

Up top where Dolgopolov sneaks into Nishikori's position, the qualifier gets a bye. He will play Stakhovsky or Tomic now with the winner there with a golden opportunity to make some noise this week. A lot depends on the brain waves of Bernard Tomic this week. He was locked in during his run in Montreal to the third round where he lost to Tsonga. Dolgopolov had chances to upset Grigor Dimitrov in Montreal last week after running through qualifying, but he failed to take advantage of Dimitrov's shaky play. This week, he looks for his first ever main draw win in Cincy with an 0-4 mark in the main draw. He owns a 5-3 record against Tomic, but Tomic has won the last two meetings. Gael Monfils is the lone seed in this half as the fourteenth seed will battle Jerzy Janowicz to open. That could be a one and done. However, if Monfils gets past Jerzy, this is a spot where he could make a run. This quarter might as well have all their matches under a Big Top because you've got a bunch of circus clowns in action here. The question will be which one leaves his clown shoes off more than they are on? It's hard to trust anyone here. Monfils by default, but the dark horse quarterfinal pick here would be Tomic.

Third Quarter: Andy Murray (3)
Murray comes in with a huge monkey off his back after beating Novak Djokovic on Sunday for the first time in his last eight tries. It came with icing on top of that cake as he won a title to boot at the Rogers Cup. Murray's history in Cincinnati is similar to that in Canada. He has not made a semifinal here since 2011 when he won the title. He'll get some rest and then either Viktor Troicki or Mardy Fish. That should suit him well to start with a win. 16th seed Grigor Dimitrov is the other seed in this half. He won his opener Sunday night 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 over Lukas Rosol. He will take on the battle of qualifiers with Vasek Pospisil taking on Denis Kudla in the opening round. Pospisil has two wins over Kudla, one at the ATP level on grass in Newport back in 2013. Kudla has cooled some since his Atlanta semifinal run. Pospisil won't have John Isner in his way this week. Isner beat him both in D.C. and Montreal. I think the Canadian's game is better suited to these faster courts, so give him the edge on Kudla. Dimitrov may be confident of going a step further if it is Pospisil who he owns a 3-0 career head-to-head against. Overall, I do like Murray to get to the quarters here as he should be brimming with confidence.

The other half of the quarter is led by 7th seeded Marin Cilic along with 12th seed Richard Gasquet. Both have questions coming into the week. For Cilic, can he find the form that seemed to have him headed in the right direction at the Citi Open before he met Nishikori? His first-up comes against Sousa or Kohlschreiber. Kolschreiber can be tough, but this is a match Cilic needs to win. Gasquet meanwhile needs to prove health after dropping out of the Rogers Cup due to illness. It won't be easy with firestorm Nick Kyrgios in the opening round. If he can survive there, he could meet Kyrgios' running mate Thanasi Kokkinakis who takes on Fabio Fognini in the first round. Yes, you can't make that sort of thing up that the two Aussies embroiled in controversy from the past week could play each other in the second round. Gasquet has lost his first match the last two trips to Cincy, so something tells me that fate could indeed pit the two Aussies against each other. Fognini has lost ten straight on outdoor hard courts, not winning since last year's U.S. Open. He did however make the quarters last year at this tournament. I'd look for Cilic to get his head back on straight this week barring injury and don't be surprised if it's one of the Aussies he has to go through to get to the quarters.

Fourth Quarter: Roger Federer (2)
There are a lot of stories this week, but at first glance this week may end up smelling like roses for Roger Federer. This has been one of his best tournaments with four titles in Cincinnati in the last six years. He's perfectly rested after choosing to skip Montreal. His opener against Bautista-Agut or Cuevas should afford him time to work into a good groove. In his half of the quarter, Kevin Anderson is the other seed at #15. Anderson was shocked in the opeing round of the Rogers Cup by Lukas Rosol and lost his first match at the Citi Open to Alexander Zverev. He'll hope to turn things around against Leonardo Mayer in round one. That might be possible as Anderson has won twice already this year against Mayer. Keep in mind though that Anderson has lost his first match in Cincy three years running. The winner gets wild card Bjorn Frantangelo or Jack Sock. Sock is 0-fer in Cincinnati in his career, so getting his first main draw win is a priority. He could be the one to get through to play Federer in the third round. Federer looks like a good chance to be in the quarters.

The other half of the quarter has 8th seeded Rafael Nadal and 9th seeded Milos Raonic. As outlined in the seed report, Nadal won't find his first match here easy. Nadal likely could face Jeremy Chardy in the second round. Chardy is fresh off a semifinal run in Montreal. Nadal did not play Cincy last year, but made at least the quarters for five straight years from 2008 to 2013. With consistency not Chardy's strong suit, I think Rafa should survive his opener. For Raonic, he needs matches to get comfortable with his foot following surgery earlier this summer. He definitely looked rusty in Montreal. If he can wiggle by Feliciano Lopez to open, his path to the quarters gets easier with Seppi or Mannarino in the second round. That would leave Nadal or maybe a surprising consistent Chardy in the third. Raonic has made the quarters two of three years he has come here. If he can find his form, that could be three of four years. I won't be surprised though if he can't do that and Rafa squeezes through to give this tournament a delightful Roger vs. Rafa showdown in the quarters.

Futures
Federer +600
Berdych +2500

Federer is a pre-tournament investment. Berdych I recommended watching him play a match first, might save a loss!

8.17.15
Janowicz +1.5 Sets @ -108
Bellucci -125
Fish +500
Karlovic +131

May have another pick later. Kind of like to see how things shake out early on some picks.

Add..
Seppi @ +107

Wow, can't believe I pussied out and didn't follow you on Fish. Enjoy your spoils.  Looks like you'll be eating well tonight.

Fish!!

Really appreciate your previews. Thanks. Fish gets the tournament started off real well. 

Price was ridiculous even for a guy with as few matches under his belt as Fish. This is one of his favorite tournaments and Troicki has been off his game since his Davis Cup debacle. Love it!

Good job on Fish. Great win for Marty

Made a deal with myself that if the Fish singles bet hit, I would ride him in doubles today also. This will be my last pick today.

Add...
Berdych-Fish @ +100

Great job Fish and Belluci! Easy money for both of us

Nice set of balls Phan - I have a limited bankroll so I could not pull the trigger and played Ivo instead, need a winner and +500 scared me away.  Same thing last week - loved Errani at +675 against Aza and it hit while I licked my balls and missed another big dog. 

I've made the bankroll mistake many times my friends. I hope not to make it in the future though. Those mistakes often times cost you massive futures winners. You should be able to consistently make your best plays without worry about bankroll as the plays are only 5-10% max of your bankroll.

Yeah I here ya. I am usually more apt to go conservative and take the +1.5 set bets obviously on many of these bigger dogs I like, but sometimes it pays to go for it now and again. Even if it's a $25 bet or whatever you can afford, sometimes you gotta do it!