The Underdog Theorem

This isn't my own system but I haven't seen anyone posting it so here it goes. It's based on the book by Eddie Getz, The Underdog Theorem. I can't find my copy of it but I think I remember what the rules were. Basically, the premise of the system is that, because of the parity in the NFL, you can be assured that every team will lose at least once and every team will win at least once. I think the money management strategy he recommends is ludicrous, but since I'm only going to track the system and not actually bet on it I'll use just a straight Martingale.

After week 2 in the NFL every undefeated and winless team goes on a list. In 2014 there were 6 apiece. Then you look at each of those team's schedule, and I can't quite remember how far but I went out to week 12. If an undefeated team has another undefeated team on their schedule or a winless team has a winless team on their schedule they don't enter the system yet. Before last week all 12 teams that were winless or undefeated had couldn't be entered.

Another filter is that the team you back has to be the underdog, hence the name of the system. If an underdog covers a spread but loses the game they are removed from the group. I can't remember exactly how the author handled these situations but this is how I'll do it.

Week 3 Undefeated and Schedule:

Philadelphia - SF, STL, NYG, BYE, ARZ, HOU, CAR, GB, TEN
Arizona - BYE, DEN, WAS, OAK, PHI, DAL, STL, DET, SEA
Cincinnati - BYE, NE, CAR, IND, BAL, JAX, CLE, NO, HOU

Week 3 Winless and Schedule:

Tampa Bay - PIT, NO, BAL, BYE, MIN, CLE, ATL, WAS, CHI
Jacksonville - SD, PIT, TEN, CLE, MIA, CIN, DAL, BYE, IND
Oakland - MIA, BYE, SD, ARI, CLE, SEA, DEN, SD, KC

Philadelphia won't be bet against this week because they are an underdog and because they still have Arizona on their schedule.

Arizona is on a bye, plus they have Philadelphia on the schedule.

Cincinnati is on a bye.

Tampa Bay +7 (1.05 to win 1 Unit) against Pittsburgh is a play.

Jacksonville +13 (1.10 to win 1 Unit) against San Diego is a play.

Oakland +4 (1.10 to win 1 Unit) against Miami is a play.

This is not a million dollar system. Let's see how it goes.

is this money line or ats bet?

ATS. I think that's because the underdog doesn't necessarily have to win the game. It would probably take more losses to get rid of all the teams.

I read in various forums that they extend out through the beginning of week 9.

GL

Also read that if an underdog wins ATS but loses SU, they still hang around another week. Correct?

GL

Yeah, like i said I wasn't too sure about all the rules. You're probably correct, I'll keep underdogs on an extra week after a cover and stop after week 9.

I believe that Oakland, using the up to the 9th week criteria, would have been a winning play vs NE last weekend.

GL

Right on then. No Oakland this week. Good pick up.

I read where if an underdog covered but did not win SU vs an undefeated team, the underdog would remain in the system.

If a winless team (Oak) loses SU but covers, are they considered done with the system? It would seem that they should continue as well as Getz is a proponent of no winless or undefeated teams. Just wanted to have this angle straight.

Thanks.

GL

NE a winner vs Cincy. Oakland? and Jax still in play.

GL