Posted:
#1
YTD 14-9
Ran the table last week with a 3-0 mark. Only one play Thursday and only one this week:
Under 37pts Pittsburgh v Cleveland 5*
(got the 37 with my local man, I appreciate it's 36.5 or 36 elsewhere.) This is based on a system that's served me well over the years but from a fundamental viewpoint you can throw in the prospect of bad weather. A lot of mention is made of snow and rain being important for the unders in NFL games but windy conditions are what really help. The forecast for Cleveland on Thursday is 80% chance of precipitation but more importantly winds of over 25 miles/hour. Just in case the forecast is a little bit out, the forecast is similar for Wednesday and windy on Friday. Hines Ward may be rested for Pittsburgh and Cleveland has struggled to put points on the board all year. Their stats would be even worse had it not been for kick returns for touchdowns (although Pitt's kick coverage has been poor, including conceding one in the earlier meeting.) Getting the 37 line helps as it's the most regularly occuring totals number in the NFL (it occurs about 4.9% of the time if memory serves.)
BOL to all.
Ran the table last week with a 3-0 mark. Only one play Thursday and only one this week:
Under 37pts Pittsburgh v Cleveland 5*
(got the 37 with my local man, I appreciate it's 36.5 or 36 elsewhere.) This is based on a system that's served me well over the years but from a fundamental viewpoint you can throw in the prospect of bad weather. A lot of mention is made of snow and rain being important for the unders in NFL games but windy conditions are what really help. The forecast for Cleveland on Thursday is 80% chance of precipitation but more importantly winds of over 25 miles/hour. Just in case the forecast is a little bit out, the forecast is similar for Wednesday and windy on Friday. Hines Ward may be rested for Pittsburgh and Cleveland has struggled to put points on the board all year. Their stats would be even worse had it not been for kick returns for touchdowns (although Pitt's kick coverage has been poor, including conceding one in the earlier meeting.) Getting the 37 line helps as it's the most regularly occuring totals number in the NFL (it occurs about 4.9% of the time if memory serves.)
BOL to all.
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