guys i know everyone is very careful with letting their systems out. that being said any of you who are willing to release them, please post here. i'm just trying to find a new way to crunch numbers. I dont care how bad or how good it is, i just wanna see if we can piece one together!
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
guys i know everyone is very careful with letting their systems out. that being said any of you who are willing to release them, please post here. i'm just trying to find a new way to crunch numbers. I dont care how bad or how good it is, i just wanna see if we can piece one together!
I gave up on systems along time ago, I even gave up on handicapping. After years of spending time crunching numbers and stats all day or all week to find a few value plays I got tired.
I have spreadsheets that create lines and they're pretty accurate. The last few years I have been running my numbers, then watching for news and injuries on the games where the line is off. Then my final step was to watch for reverse line moves, if the move was against me I'd pass the game, if it was for my team or there was no odd move I'd lay on it.
Then I started seeing how the line moves alone were bringing in winners. Reverse moves of 1 point or more bring in a lot of pay offs and 30 cents or more on hockey and baseball.
Now all do is pick out those moves then do my research to see why it moved and if there is no major injury or situation it's a play.
There is more to it, it's really kind of an art form. It's all about the lines, when they make the lines they factor in everything you can ever think of, plus you have groups of handicappers adjusting them. It's nearly impossible to find an error no matter how good you think you are.
I've been honing my skills for 20 years and using bankroll management etc etc. Only to grind out small profits over and over and also a few losing seasons averaged in. After all that, in the last 3 years I've been on reverse line moves and winning. It's that simple but a bit complex, but going where the money is will take you to the money.
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I gave up on systems along time ago, I even gave up on handicapping. After years of spending time crunching numbers and stats all day or all week to find a few value plays I got tired.
I have spreadsheets that create lines and they're pretty accurate. The last few years I have been running my numbers, then watching for news and injuries on the games where the line is off. Then my final step was to watch for reverse line moves, if the move was against me I'd pass the game, if it was for my team or there was no odd move I'd lay on it.
Then I started seeing how the line moves alone were bringing in winners. Reverse moves of 1 point or more bring in a lot of pay offs and 30 cents or more on hockey and baseball.
Now all do is pick out those moves then do my research to see why it moved and if there is no major injury or situation it's a play.
There is more to it, it's really kind of an art form. It's all about the lines, when they make the lines they factor in everything you can ever think of, plus you have groups of handicappers adjusting them. It's nearly impossible to find an error no matter how good you think you are.
I've been honing my skills for 20 years and using bankroll management etc etc. Only to grind out small profits over and over and also a few losing seasons averaged in. After all that, in the last 3 years I've been on reverse line moves and winning. It's that simple but a bit complex, but going where the money is will take you to the money.
I gave up on systems along time ago, I even gave up on handicapping. After years of spending time crunching numbers and stats all day or all week to find a few value plays I got tired.
I have spreadsheets that create lines and they're pretty accurate. The last few years I have been running my numbers, then watching for news and injuries on the games where the line is off. Then my final step was to watch for reverse line moves, if the move was against me I'd pass the game, if it was for my team or there was no odd move I'd lay on it.
Then I started seeing how the line moves alone were bringing in winners. Reverse moves of 1 point or more bring in a lot of pay offs and 30 cents or more on hockey and baseball.
Now all do is pick out those moves then do my research to see why it moved and if there is no major injury or situation it's a play.
There is more to it, it's really kind of an art form. It's all about the lines, when they make the lines they factor in everything you can ever think of, plus you have groups of handicappers adjusting them. It's nearly impossible to find an error no matter how good you think you are.
I've been honing my skills for 20 years and using bankroll management etc etc. Only to grind out small profits over and over and also a few losing seasons averaged in. After all that, in the last 3 years I've been on reverse line moves and winning. It's that simple but a bit complex, but going where the money is will take you to the money.
Well said sir! I do watch line movement, but maybe i need to do it more! thanks for input
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Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:
I gave up on systems along time ago, I even gave up on handicapping. After years of spending time crunching numbers and stats all day or all week to find a few value plays I got tired.
I have spreadsheets that create lines and they're pretty accurate. The last few years I have been running my numbers, then watching for news and injuries on the games where the line is off. Then my final step was to watch for reverse line moves, if the move was against me I'd pass the game, if it was for my team or there was no odd move I'd lay on it.
Then I started seeing how the line moves alone were bringing in winners. Reverse moves of 1 point or more bring in a lot of pay offs and 30 cents or more on hockey and baseball.
Now all do is pick out those moves then do my research to see why it moved and if there is no major injury or situation it's a play.
There is more to it, it's really kind of an art form. It's all about the lines, when they make the lines they factor in everything you can ever think of, plus you have groups of handicappers adjusting them. It's nearly impossible to find an error no matter how good you think you are.
I've been honing my skills for 20 years and using bankroll management etc etc. Only to grind out small profits over and over and also a few losing seasons averaged in. After all that, in the last 3 years I've been on reverse line moves and winning. It's that simple but a bit complex, but going where the money is will take you to the money.
Well said sir! I do watch line movement, but maybe i need to do it more! thanks for input
One trick in football is to find them early and slam them, by Wednesday the value is usually gone. Follow the money that see's a good line when they open, and try to get on it before it moves too much. That's part of the art form, trying to determine if it will jump back or keep on moving. If it was easy everyone would be doing it
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One trick in football is to find them early and slam them, by Wednesday the value is usually gone. Follow the money that see's a good line when they open, and try to get on it before it moves too much. That's part of the art form, trying to determine if it will jump back or keep on moving. If it was easy everyone would be doing it
One trick in football is to find them early and slam them, by Wednesday the value is usually gone. Follow the money that see's a good line when they open, and try to get on it before it moves too much. That's part of the art form, trying to determine if it will jump back or keep on moving. If it was easy everyone would be doing it
Follow the money and get them early?!? That's contradicting yourself!
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Quote Originally Posted by Sharkysden:
One trick in football is to find them early and slam them, by Wednesday the value is usually gone. Follow the money that see's a good line when they open, and try to get on it before it moves too much. That's part of the art form, trying to determine if it will jump back or keep on moving. If it was easy everyone would be doing it
Follow the money and get them early?!? That's contradicting yourself!
Follow the money and get them early?!? That's contradicting yourself!
Over the years I've noticed that reverse moves early in the week have a higher winning percentage. Probably because it takes more money to move a line when there's a low count of total bets and high percentage of public bets on the other side. When it comes to line moves I check in my ego at the door and do what works.
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Quote Originally Posted by CasinoKing:
Follow the money and get them early?!? That's contradicting yourself!
Over the years I've noticed that reverse moves early in the week have a higher winning percentage. Probably because it takes more money to move a line when there's a low count of total bets and high percentage of public bets on the other side. When it comes to line moves I check in my ego at the door and do what works.
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